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朝鲜半岛危机（一）：处于火与怒之中
朝鲜半岛危机（一）：处于火与怒之中
Table of Contents
  1. Executive Summary
  2. Introduction
  3. Pyongyang’s Nuclear Motives
    1. Strategic Goals and External Risks
    2. Challenges at Home
  4. Sabre Rattling from Washington
    1. Undeterrable North Korea and a U.S. That Hates Being Deterred
    2. “All Options on the Table”
  5. Seoul’s Shifting Calculations
    1. No Sunshine 2.0
    2. Not Masters of Their Own Fate
  6. Extent and Limits of Chinese Influence
    1. Three Nos, and Then Some
    2. How Far Can Beijing Go?
  7. Where Japan and Russia Stand
  8. Conclusion
  9. Appendix A: Maps of the Korean Peninsula
  10. Appendix B: Map of North East Asia
The Korean Peninsula Crisis (II): From Fire and Fury to Freeze-for-Freeze
The Korean Peninsula Crisis (II): From Fire and Fury to Freeze-for-Freeze
Table of Contents
  1. Executive Summary
  2. Introduction
  3. Limits of Economic Pressure
  4. Dangers of Belligerence
  5. The Costs of War
  6. A Way Out
  7. Conclusion
  8. Appendix A: Map of the Korean Peninsula
  9. Appendix B: Map of North East Asia
A Korean War memorial in Pyongyang, capital of the North Korea, with the newly built Victorious Fatherland Liberation War Museum in the background, in April 2016. CRISIS GROUP/Christopher Green
Report 293 / Asia

朝鲜半岛危机（一）：处于火与怒之中

朝鲜半岛当前卷入严重战事的可能性比近期历史上任何时期都更为严峻。本系列报告由两部分组成，在第一部分中，危机组织研究了包括朝鲜、美国、韩国、中国、日本和俄罗斯等受影响最大国家的利益和盘算。

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