The following is adapted from a March 2023 report by Crisis Group’s President and CEO Comfort Ero to the organisation’s Trustees (before Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s 20-21 March visit to Moscow). She looks at the Ukraine war and its knock-on effects – from big-power polarisation to middle-power activism and disquiet outside the West about the conflict.
The core lesson of the 2003 Iraq war is that ruptures in autocratic settings are inherently fraught with risk. Policymakers should approach proposed interventions in such settings with caution.
In this video, Omar Mahmood discusses the Somali government’s recent gains in its war with the Islamist insurgency Al-Shabaab, mainly in central Somalia.
Democratic Republic of Congo
In UN debates over Russia’s war in Ukraine, Western countries are still pledging to back Kyiv militarily, while non-Western states are more inclined to call for a negotiated peace. Thus far, however, the latter’s proposals for reaching that goal have been short on detail.
The war in Ukraine has roiled Europe and shaken up the global economy. Its ripple effects will continue to be felt around the globe. Meanwhile, other crises loom. Here are the International Crisis Group’s Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2023.
We can see a de-escalation in the regional layer of the [Saudi-Iranian] conflict. It is a multi-layered conflict, with domestic and regional causes, not just a proxy war
Beijing will have to publicly condemn [Taiwan President] Tsai’s visit to the US, their ultimate response will depend on what Tsai says and who she meets with on her trip.
[Israeli settlers] are completely emboldened by this government. They have the legitimacy they didn’t have before politically and that gives settlers a lot more audacity.
If it wasn't because of Mahsa Amini's tragic death, there would have been another trigger. There's just so much pent up frustration within the Iranian society.
What Somaliland is probably trying to do by saying there are terrorists involved in the fighting is to discredit their opponent.
The UAE has, since 2021, embarked on a policy of diminishing tensions with other countries in the region, and normalizing with Assad is part of that.
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