Since 2002, Crisis Group has been working to advance a new, inclusive peacemaking model for Israelis and Palestinians and to reduce the likelihood of deadly conflict among Palestinians and between Israel and its neighbours. But with every escalation, Israeli-Palestinian peace seems more remote than ever.
The killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has brought the Middle East to its moment of greatest peril in years. All concerned must do their utmost to avoid regional war. The most important step, besides mutual restraint, is a Gaza ceasefire.
Deadly Golan Heights rocket strike blamed on Hizbollah and assassination of Hamas political leader in Tehran risked further escalation; Israel continued assault on Gaza Strip and approved largest land seizure in West Bank since Oslo accords.
Deadly strike on Beirut and assassination of Hamas leader in Tehran risk igniting wider conflict. Rocket strike 27 July killed 12, including children, and injured over 40 in Israeli-occupied Golan Heights village of Majdal Shams. Israel and U.S. blamed attack on Hizbollah, which denied responsibility. In response, Israeli air raid 30 July killed top Hizbollah commander Fuad Shukr and five civilians in Lebanese capital Beirut, while injuring at least 74 others; Hizbollah vowed retaliation. Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh killed 31 July in Iranian capital Tehran. Hamas and Iran blamed operation on Israel as Hamas said killing would “take the battle to new dimensions” and Iran vowed “harsh punishment”. Qatar same day questioned potential for ceasefire negotiations – which had stalled earlier in month – following assassination. Earlier in month, Yemeni Houthi drone 19 July killed one and injured at least ten in Tel Aviv; in response, Israel next day struck Yemeni port of Hodeida, killing nine and injuring 87 (see Iran, Lebanon, Yemen).
Israel conducted major operations in Gaza. Israel continued aerial bombardment and major assaults on Khan Younis, Rafah and Gaza City. Notably, Israeli attack on humanitarian safe zone al-Masawi 13 July reportedly killed up to 100; week-long incursion into Khan Younis 22-30 July reportedly killed at least 255 and injured over 300. Operations in July killed over 1,500 Palestinians, bringing death toll since 7 Oct to over 39,400; medical journal The Lancet 5 July found total Gaza death toll (including deaths due to lack of food, healthcare and sanitation systems) could exceed 186,000. UNRWA head 28 July said only 14% of Gaza’s territory was not under Israeli evacuation orders.
Israel approved largest land seizure in West Bank in decades. Israeli NGO Peace Now 3 July reported Israel late June approved seizure of 12.7 square km in Jordan Valley, marking largest land annexation since 1993 Oslo accords. Meanwhile, settler violence, raids and airstrikes continued in West Bank, killing at least 37 Palestinians and bringing death toll since 7 Oct to at least 576.
In terms of Hamas’ popularity, yes they are the de facto leaders of Palestinians, whether we like it or not.
Since October 7, the [Israeli] government is more emboldened to carry out attacks in the West Bank, and they are engaged in collective punishment.
It’s very unlikely Israel will allow any fully fledged civil entity to take over [in Gaza.] At best we’re looking at dysfunctional governance run by aid organizations.
Nobody in the Israeli political establishment is willing to say ‘stop the war’.
There is an Israeli narrative in the [Gaza] war, and an international narrative, and they don’t really meet.
The Egyptian acts are pushed on the one hand by a sense of solidarity with the Palestinian cause but on the other hand as a matter of security.
In this X space, Crisis Group's experts Ali Vaez and Stephen Pomper talk with Eran Etzion, Dana Stroul, and Danny Citrinowicz about the risks of all-out war between Iran and Israel and how this outcome can still be prevented.
Genuine pressure on Israel and Hamas to enact a Gaza cease-fire could dial down tensions across the region.
Originally published in Foreign Policy.
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