Since 2002, Crisis Group has been working to advance a new, inclusive peacemaking model for Israelis and Palestinians and to reduce the likelihood of deadly conflict among Palestinians and between Israel and its neighbours. But with every escalation, Israeli-Palestinian peace seems more remote than ever.
A political crisis has gripped Israel as its Gaza campaign grinds on with no end in sight. Not only are more than 100 Israelis still captives of Hamas, but many feel held hostage by their own failed leadership.
Israel resumed onslaught in Gaza, expanding operations in south as famine loomed, while violence in West Bank worsened; hostilities with Hizbollah escalated, highlighting regional conflict risks.
Israeli assault on Gaza intensified and expanded south, as risk of starvation spread. After seven-day humanitarian pause 1 Dec collapsed, Israel intensified ground operation in Gaza’s north and expanded in south, focusing on Khan Younis city and escalating bombardment, bringing Palestinian death toll since 7 Oct to over 22,000; clashes with Hamas and other militants killed at least 175 Israeli soldiers since start of ground offensive. Gaza authorities late Dec reported Israel had killed 106 Palestinian media workers, marking deadliest conflict for journalists globally. Israeli assault displaced 1.9m amid relentless bombing of hospitals, schools, mosques and churches. Notably, Israeli forces 12 Dec raided Kamal Adwan hospital in north, allegedly crushing dozens of patients and displaced persons with bulldozers; 16 Dec killed two women in Catholic church in Gaza city. Survivors alleged Israel summarily killed civilians, including at UN-run Shadia Abu Ghazala school and in Gaza city. Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch 18 Dec accused Israel of using starvation as war tactic. Multi-stakeholder global initiative Integrated Food Security Phase 21 Dec estimated Gaza population at imminent risk of famine. Internationally, U.S. shifted rhetoric, warning Israel against indiscriminate bombing despite continuing to block UN Security Council resolutions for ceasefire.
Talks on hostage exchange resumed. Israeli soldiers 15 Dec mistakenly killed three Israeli hostages in Gaza, increasing pressure on govt to restart hostage negotiations. Israel 19 Dec reportedly offered week-long pause and prisoner release in exchange for 40 hostages; Hamas rejected negotiations without end of bombardment.
Conditions in West Bank continued deteriorating sharply. Since 7 Oct, Israeli forces and settlers killed over 319 Palestinians, with over 4,500 arrested amid ubiquitous drone strikes and raids. Notably, Israel 14 Dec launched 60-hour operation in Jenin, killing at least twelve.
Border clashes with Hizbollah intensified. Israel expanded targets to residential areas in southern Lebanon. Hizbollah 7 Dec killed Israeli civilian in first non-military casualty since 7 Oct (see Lebanon).
There is no lack of support for the war [in Israel] but it is increasingly clear that the release of the hostages is in conflict with other goals.
It was completely foreseeable that the longer the Gaza war drags on, the higher the risks of escalation and regional conflagration.
The Israeli military is presenting their plan [on the future governance of Gaza] for the politicians to consider. It’s a recipe for disaster.
Israel and Hezbollah have pursued a new dynamic of tit-for-tat retaliation – launching strikes against each other below the threshold of triggering an all-out war.
The Houthis have made clear that as soon as Israel halts its offensive in Gaza, then they will also stop firing at commercial shipping [in the Red Sea].
Russian diplomats see the war in the Middle East as a huge opportunity to reset their position at the U.N.
The Conflict Has Empowered Tehran—but Also Fueled Its Sense of Vulnerability
As the conflict in Gaza enters its fourth month, Crisis Group’s Gaza-based researcher Azmi Keshawi, working with colleague Claudia Gazzini, tells the story of his family’s daily struggle to survive this devastating war.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Robert Blecher, Tahani Mustafa and Heiko Wimmen to talk again about the war in Gaza, the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in the strip and the risks of escalation on the Israel-Lebanon border.
Agree to a ceasefire, halt settlement construction – there are things that Benjamin Netanyahu could do if he were serious about his supposed aim.
Thus far, Hizbollah and Israel have avoided a disastrous escalation on the Israeli-Lebanese border as the Gaza war rages. But trouble lies ahead. Western-led mediation remains the best way to restore security to the frontier.
In this online event, Crisis Group experts from our MENA Program discuss the latest developments in Israel and Gaza and their repercussions for the region.
Israel’s offensive in Gaza is taking a terrible human toll that can only climb the longer the fighting goes on, with mounting risks of wider war. The U.S. needs to push vigorously and without delay for a ceasefire.
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