Since 2002, Crisis Group has been working to advance a new, inclusive peacemaking model for Israelis and Palestinians and to reduce the likelihood of deadly conflict among Palestinians and between Israel and its neighbours. But with every escalation, Israeli-Palestinian peace seems more remote than ever.

CrisisWatch Israel/Palestine

Deteriorated Situation

Conflict Risk Alert

Israel escalated deadly violence in West Bank and approved plans to recognise illegal settlements, while Israeli assault on Gaza Strip continued; Israel and Hizbollah intensified cross-border attacks, threatening expanded conflict.

Israeli security forces and settlers stepped up attacks across West Bank, govt approved plans to “legalise” settlements. Notably, Israeli forces 11 June killed six Palestinians in Kafr Dan village; Israeli airstrike 30 June killed Palestinian and injured five in Nur Shams refugee camp. UN Security Council members, including U.S., 25 June voiced concern about escalating violence in West Bank and expansion of illegal settlements. Israeli govt 27 June approved plan to “legalise” five settlement outposts illegal under Israeli law. 

Israel killed hundreds in operation to free hostages in Gaza. Israel’s June operations in Gaza killed over 1,500, bringing total death toll since Oct to at least 37,765 Palestinians. In central Gaza, Israeli forces 8 June launched operation in Nuseirat refugee camp, rescuing four Israeli hostages while killing 274 Palestinians. In south, Israel continued incursion into Rafah and 17 June claimed control of 70% of city. Israel maintained control of Gaza-Egypt border and Rafah crossing remained closed. Israel Defense Forces 16 June announced “tactical pause” in fighting during daylight along main road in southern Gaza to allow aid in from Kerem Shalom crossing; PM Netanyahu denounced pause. Israeli military 27 June ordered evacuation of residents east of Gaza city, displacing estimated 60,000-80,000 and leaving around 78% of Gaza Strip under evacuation orders. 

Ceasefire proposal made no headway and Israeli war cabinet dissolved. Following U.S. President Biden’s ceasefire proposal outlined late May, negotiations remained stalled, with Hamas demanding Israel’s commitment to permanent ceasefire and withdrawal from Gaza, and Israel refusing to endorse end of war. Meanwhile, centrists Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot 9 June left Israeli war cabinet and coalition govt, citing failure to set out post-war plan for Gaza, and Netanyahu 17 June dissolved war cabinet. Israeli Supreme Court 25 June ruled to end military exemption for ultra-Orthodox men, setting stage for tensions in coalition.

Pressure mounted for all-out war against Hizbollah. Amid domestic pressure notably from displaced Israelis and right-wing ministers for all-out war against Hizbollah, cross-border attacks escalated (see Lebanon).

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In The News

24 Jun 2024
It’s very unlikely Israel will allow any fully fledged civil entity to take over [in Gaza.] At best we’re looking at dysfunctional governance run by aid organizations. Wall Street Journal

Tahani Mustafa

Senior Analyst, Palestine
19 Jun 2024
Nobody in the Israeli political establishment is willing to say ‘stop the war’. The New Arab

Mairav Zonszein

Senior Analyst, Israel
9 Jun 2024
There is an Israeli narrative in the [Gaza] war, and an international narrative, and they don’t really meet. The Guardian

Mairav Zonszein

Senior Analyst, Israel
8 Jun 2024
The Egyptian acts are pushed on the one hand by a sense of solidarity with the Palestinian cause but on the other hand as a matter of security. Al-Monitor

Riccardo Fabiani

Project Director, North Africa
21 May 2024
I think, hopefully, [the ICC arrest warrants] should give Israel's backers — the U.S., U.K., Germany, those providing arms to Israel — cause to reconsider that support. CBC

Brian Finucane

Senior Adviser, U.S.
10 May 2024
This resolution [for Palestinian UN membership] is a very clear signal to Israel and the US that it is time to take Palestinian statehood seriously. AFP

Richard Gowan

UN Director

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Senior Analyst, Israel
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