Israel/Palestine

Since 2002, Crisis Group has been working to advance a new, inclusive peacemaking model for Israelis and Palestinians and to reduce the likelihood of deadly conflict among Palestinians and between Israel and its neighbours. But with every escalation, Israeli-Palestinian peace seems more remote than ever.

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CrisisWatch Israel/Palestine

Deteriorated Situation

Conflict Risk Alert

Israel resumed onslaught in Gaza, expanding operations in south as famine loomed, while violence in West Bank worsened; hostilities with Hizbollah escalated, highlighting regional conflict risks.

Israeli assault on Gaza intensified and expanded south, as risk of starvation spread. After seven-day humanitarian pause 1 Dec collapsed, Israel intensified ground operation in Gaza’s north and expanded in south, focusing on Khan Younis city and escalating bombardment, bringing Palestinian death toll since 7 Oct to over 22,000; clashes with Hamas and other militants killed at least 175 Israeli soldiers since start of ground offensive. Gaza authorities late Dec reported Israel had killed 106 Palestinian media workers, marking deadliest conflict for journalists globally. Israeli assault displaced 1.9m amid relentless bombing of hospitals, schools, mosques and churches. Notably, Israeli forces 12 Dec raided Kamal Adwan hospital in north, allegedly crushing dozens of patients and displaced persons with bulldozers; 16 Dec killed two women in Catholic church in Gaza city. Survivors alleged Israel summarily killed civilians, including at UN-run Shadia Abu Ghazala school and in Gaza city. Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch 18 Dec accused Israel of using starvation as war tactic. Multi-stakeholder global initiative Integrated Food Security Phase 21 Dec estimated Gaza population at imminent risk of famine. Internationally, U.S. shifted rhetoric, warning Israel against indiscriminate bombing despite continuing to block UN Security Council resolutions for ceasefire.

Talks on hostage exchange resumed. Israeli soldiers 15 Dec mistakenly killed three Israeli hostages in Gaza, increasing pressure on govt to restart hostage negotiations. Israel 19 Dec reportedly offered week-long pause and prisoner release in exchange for 40 hostages; Hamas rejected negotiations without end of bombardment. 

Conditions in West Bank continued deteriorating sharply. Since 7 Oct, Israeli forces and settlers killed over 319 Palestinians, with over 4,500 arrested amid ubiquitous drone strikes and raids. Notably, Israel 14 Dec launched 60-hour operation in Jenin, killing at least twelve.

Border clashes with Hizbollah intensified. Israel expanded targets to residential areas in southern Lebanon. Hizbollah 7 Dec killed Israeli civilian in first non-military casualty since 7 Oct (see Lebanon).

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In The News

19 Jan 2024
There is no lack of support for the war [in Israel] but it is increasingly clear that the release of the hostages is in conflict with other goals. The Guardian

Mairav Zonszein

Senior Analyst, Israel
12 Jan 2024
It was completely foreseeable that the longer the Gaza war drags on, the higher the risks of escalation and regional conflagration. Reuters

Ali Vaez

Senior Adviser to the President & Project Director, Iran
5 Jan 2024
The Israeli military is presenting their plan [on the future governance of Gaza] for the politicians to consider. It’s a recipe for disaster. The Guardian

Mairav Zonszein

Senior Analyst, Israel
3 Jan 2024
Israel and Hezbollah have pursued a new dynamic of tit-for-tat retaliation – launching strikes against each other below the threshold of triggering an all-out war. The New Arab

David Wood

Senior Analyst, Lebanon
20 Dec 2023
The Houthis have made clear that as soon as Israel halts its offensive in Gaza, then they will also stop firing at commercial shipping [in the Red Sea]. Anadolu Agency

Joost Hiltermann

Program Director, Middle East and North Africa
14 Dec 2023
Russian diplomats see the war in the Middle East as a huge opportunity to reset their position at the U.N. Reuters

Richard Gowan

UN Director

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Our People

Joost Hiltermann

Program Director, Middle East and North Africa
Joost Hiltermann

Tahani Mustafa

Senior Analyst, Palestine

Mairav Zonszein

Senior Analyst, Israel
Mairav Zonszein

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