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Latin America & Caribbean

CrisisWatch Latin America & Caribbean

CrisisWatch is a monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.

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Trends for Last Month September 2017

Deteriorated Situations

El Salvador

Improved Situations


Outlook for This Month October 2017

Conflict Risk Alerts


Resolution Opportunities


Reports & Briefings

In The News

16 Aug 2017
There is malaria now even in urban areas [of Venezuela]. The government's anti-malaria programme has effectively been dismantled. Al Jazeera

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
7 Aug 2017
It’s very hard to create critical mass [in Venezuela] without being found out. In an era of instant digital communications, authorities can be alerted to the risk of destabilization very quickly. AP

Ivan Briscoe

Program Director, Latin America and Caribbean
5 Aug 2017
Should [violent] events recur, Venezuela’s political conflict could morph into a low-intensity civil war. The Guardian

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
28 Jun 2017
There is a [...] belief in Colombia that if you are an illegal armed group without a particular ideology, fighting the state would be enough to pressure the government into entering a peace process. IRIN News

Kyle Johnson

Senior Analyst, Colombia
28 Jun 2017
But so far that discontent [within Venezuela's armed forces] has not translated into a split in the armed forces, and this is clearly what everybody's waiting for. Al Jazeera

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
24 Jun 2017
The opposition [in Venezuela] knows perfectly well that they would lose a violent struggle. If they start shooting back, everything is over. So the violence on the opposition side is reactive. Al Jazeera

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes

Latest Updates

Venezuela: “Zero hour”

As the Venezuelan government prepares to create an all-powerful constituent assembly to replace the country’s democracy, unrest is likely to reach new levels of violence. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2017 – Second Update early warning report for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the European Union and its member states to support regional actors’ efforts to bring about genuine negotiations while insisting on the restoration of constitutional rule.

Watch List 2017 – Second Update

Crisis Group’s second update to our Watch List 2017 includes entries on Nigeria, Qatar, Thailand and Venezuela. These early-warning publications identify conflict situations in which prompt action by the European Union and its member states would generate stronger prospects for peace.

Rebuilding Colombia’s Trust in the Peace Process

In this video, our Senior Analyst for Colombia, Kyle Johnson, highlights the main findings of Crisis Group’s report “In the Shadow of “No”: Peace after Colombia’s Plebiscite”. Johnson argues that rebuilding Colombian public’s trust will need swift and effective implementation of the revised peace agreement - including full apologies for past crimes and the visible handover of weapons by insurgents. 

Shaping the Peace Process in Colombia

Colombia’s 2016 peace accord was a spectacular breakthrough after five decades of war. It was also an outcome Crisis Group helped work for during 15 years of Bogotá-based research and advocacy, including 36 reports and briefings, 91 op-eds and commentaries and more than 500 meetings with all parties.

A Misguided Cuba Roll-back

President Trump’s new measures against Cuba preserve diplomatic relations and the right to most U.S. trade and group travel. But aggressive U.S. atmospherics risk hardening Cuba’s domestic politics and making it harder for Havana to play its mediating role in regional crises and conflicts.

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Our People

Ivan Briscoe

Program Director, Latin America and Caribbean

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes

Kyle Johnson

Senior Analyst, Colombia

Arturo Matute

Analyst, Guatemala

Sofía Martínez Fernández

Analyst, Northern Triangle

Estefanie Robertson

Operations Manager, Latin America

Froylán Enciso

Senior Analyst, Mexico