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Latin America & Caribbean

CrisisWatch Latin America & Caribbean

CrisisWatch is a monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.

View latest updates

Trends for Last Month November 2017

Deteriorated Situations

Honduras

Improved Situations

none

Outlook for This Month December 2017

Conflict Risk Alerts

Honduras

Resolution Opportunities

none

Reports & Briefings

In The News

8 Dec 2017
The least you can ask of [Venezuelan] opposition is that it shows up and puts up a fight. There [aren't] many instances in history where governments have been brought down by electoral boycotts. The Guardian

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
1 Dec 2017
Violence [in Honduras] is likely to escalate in the upcoming weeks since there is still no clear winner [of the elections] and the opposition its mobilizing its supporters. Bloomberg

Sofía Martínez Fernández

Analyst, Northern Triangle
30 Nov 2017
The new [Mexican] criminal justice system seeks to reduce impunity and violations of the rights of the accused. [If the president were to abandon them, he would] repeat the mistakes of his predecessor. The World Weekly

Froylán Enciso

Senior Analyst, Mexico
22 Nov 2017
[Venezuela's chief prosecutor Tarek William] Saab is [fighting against corruption] at the behest of his political master, who one assumes to be [President] Nicolas Maduro. Bloomberg

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
16 Nov 2017
Capacities to provide legal counsel, shelter, social reintegration or even transportation for returnees across Central America are scant. The World Weekly

Sofía Martínez Fernández

Analyst, Northern Triangle
12 Nov 2017
La realidad socioeconómica de Colombia no ha cambiado desde la firma del acuerdo [sobre sustitución de la coca formalizado en 2014]. Existen grupos armados interesados en controlar la coca, la minería ilegal o la extorsión. Diario de Cuba

Ivan Briscoe

Program Director, Latin America and Caribbean

Latest Updates

Colombia’s Coca Boom

Over the last seven years, the government of Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos has worked strenuously to dissociate the country from its image as a cocaine exporter. In 2016, Santos struck a peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the guerrilla group that for years stood watch over coca farms and had become the wholesaler and arbiter of the cocaine trafficking business.

Originally published in Foreign Affairs

Undocumented Migration from the Northern Triangle of Central America

The northward flow of undocumented migrants fleeing economic hardship and violence in the Northern Triangle of Central America exposes thousands of vulnerable people to mass victimisation. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2017 – Third Update early warning report for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the European Union and its member states to continue to pursue an approach grounded in supporting community violence prevention, institutional reform and poverty alleviation in the countries of origin while supporting transiting countries in managing the flow.

Peace and Coca Compete in Colombia's Periphery

One of the most pressing security threats in Colombia following the signing of the the FARC peace agreement is fighting between armed groups trying to gain control over territories and illegal business, such as coca production, previously dominated by the FARC. In this video, Senior Analyst for Colombia Kyle Johnson and Latin America Program Director Ivan Briscoe highlight main findings of Crisis Group's report Colombia’s Armed Groups and the Fight for the Spoils of Peace. 

Final Curtain for Venezuela’s Democracy as Parliament is Dissolved

The Venezuelan government has dissolved the elected, opposition-led parliament and initiated de facto rule. Foreign governments and multilateral organisations should regard all government actions carried out in contravention of the 1999 constitution as invalid and press the government to take urgent steps toward the restoration of democracy.

Also available in Español

Venezuela's Last Flickers of Democracy

Venezuela’s political crisis took another fateful turn on Sunday 30 July with the rigged election of an all-powerful assembly mandated to rewrite the constitution. In this Q&A, Senior Analyst for the Andes Phil Gunson says Sunday’s vote represents the end of what little democratic space still existed and takes the country on the path to dictatorship.

Also available in Español

Our People

Ivan Briscoe

Program Director, Latin America and Caribbean
itbriscoe

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
philgunson

Kyle Johnson

Senior Analyst, Colombia
KyleEnColombia

Arturo Matute

Analyst, Guatemala
AMatuteICG

Sofía Martínez Fernández

Analyst, Northern Triangle
sofiamartinezf

Estefanie Robertson

Operations Manager, Latin America

Froylán Enciso

Senior Analyst, Mexico
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