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Latin America & Caribbean

CrisisWatch Latin America & Caribbean

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 80 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

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Trends for Last Month October 2019

Deteriorated Situations

BoliviaChileEcuadorMexico

Improved Situations

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Outlook for This Month November 2019

Conflict Risk Alerts

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Resolution Opportunities

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

1 Nov 2019
The string of assassinations of indigenous leaders in Cauca illustrates some of the fundamental tensions at the center of the debate about protection for human rights defenders in Colombia. Twitter

Elizabeth Dickinson

Senior Analyst, Colombia
8 Aug 2019
As long as each side [in Venezuela] pursues a winner-take-all approach, they are less willing to make concessions and a deal will remain elusive. Associated Press

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
5 Jul 2019
A former FARC negotiator and member of its Central High Command, alias Jesús Santrich, abandoned his security detail on Saturday night and has since gone missing. Who is he, why is there talk of scandal and what does this mean for Colombia’s peace process? A thread Twitter

Kyle Johnson

Former Senior Analyst, Colombia
6 Jun 2019
Any blow to the Mexican economy will pour oil into the fire of conflict, accentuating reasons for people to flee, and undermining the deterrence effect of President Trump's anti-migratory policy. Twitter

Falko Ernst

Senior Analyst, Mexico
2 Apr 2019
A troubling aspect of Trump’s move to sever aid for Central America isn't its limited economic impact & counter-productive effects. It's the contradiction with long-standing U.S cooperation in the region. Twitter

Ivan Briscoe

Program Director, Latin America and Caribbean
21 Mar 2019
Maduro is essentially calling Trump’s bluff. Maduro has essentially concluded that the military option is a very remote possibility. The New York Times

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes

Latest Updates

Coaxing Nicaragua Out of a Deadly Standoff

Political repression and economic hardship are pushing Nicaragua toward a low-intensity, protracted conflict. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2019 - Third Update for European policymakers, Crisis Group urges the EU to press for compliance with earlier agreements and a fresh round of negotiations that can help the country out of this deadly standoff. 

Also available in Español
EU Watch List / Global

Watch List 2019 – Third Update

Watch List Updates complement International Crisis Group’s annual Watch List, most recently published in January 2019. These early-warning publications identify major conflict situations in which prompt action, driven or supported by the European Union and its member states, would generate stronger prospects for peace. The third update to the Watch List 2019 includes entries on Afghanistan, Nicaragua, Sudan and Yemen.

Containing the Border Fallout of Colombia’s New Guerrilla Schism

Tensions are rising on the Colombia-Venezuela border after a new guerrilla faction opted out of Colombia’s 2016 peace deal. With diplomatic ties between the two countries severed, the risk of escalation is high. Bogotá and Caracas should open channels of communication to avoid inter-state clashes.

Also available in Español
Q&A / Latin America & Caribbean

Maduro Finds a “New Opposition” to Negotiate With

Talks to resolve Venezuela’s impasse collapsed on 15 September only for the government to announce a deal – with a different set of opponents. In this Q&A, Crisis Group Senior Andes Analyst Phil Gunson explains what these developments mean for the country’s political and socio-economic crisis.

Also available in Español

Venezuela’s Military Enigma

The struggle over Venezuela’s political future will likely turn on the armed forces’ disposition: the top brass could ease or thwart a move away from President Nicolás Maduro. Sponsors of transition talks should include military representatives in the discussions sooner rather than later.

Also available in Español

Our People

Ivan Briscoe

Program Director, Latin America and Caribbean
itbriscoe

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
philgunson

Estefanie Robertson

Operations Manager, Latin America

Elizabeth Dickinson

Senior Analyst, Colombia
dickinsonbeth

Falko Ernst

Senior Analyst, Mexico
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Bram Ebus

Consultant
BramEbus

Zaida Marquez

Communications and Advocacy Officer, Latin America
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