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Latin America & Caribbean

CrisisWatch Latin America & Caribbean

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 80 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

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Trends for Last Month January 2020

Deteriorated Situations

Venezuela

Improved Situations

El Salvador

Outlook for This Month February 2020

Conflict Risk Alerts

none

Resolution Opportunities

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Contributor

President & CEO
Rob_Malley

In his introduction to this month’s edition of CrisisWatch, our President Robert Malley reflects on the Trump administration's "ignominious vision" for Israeli-Palestinian peace and growing instability in the Sahel. He also marks the 48th birthday of our colleague and friend Michael Kovrig, who spent it behind the walls of a Chinese prison.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

7 Jan 2020
[In Mexico,] under active conflict & criminal control, basic state functions like gathering crime statistics, let alone searching for disappeared, are impossible. Twitter

Falko Ernst

Senior Analyst, Mexico
1 Nov 2019
The string of assassinations of indigenous leaders in Cauca illustrates some of the fundamental tensions at the center of the debate about protection for human rights defenders in Colombia. Twitter

Elizabeth Dickinson

Senior Analyst, Colombia
8 Aug 2019
As long as each side [in Venezuela] pursues a winner-take-all approach, they are less willing to make concessions and a deal will remain elusive. Associated Press

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
5 Jul 2019
A former FARC negotiator and member of its Central High Command, alias Jesús Santrich, abandoned his security detail on Saturday night and has since gone missing. Who is he, why is there talk of scandal and what does this mean for Colombia’s peace process? A thread Twitter

Kyle Johnson

Former Senior Analyst, Colombia
6 Jun 2019
Any blow to the Mexican economy will pour oil into the fire of conflict, accentuating reasons for people to flee, and undermining the deterrence effect of President Trump's anti-migratory policy. Twitter

Falko Ernst

Senior Analyst, Mexico
2 Apr 2019
A troubling aspect of Trump’s move to sever aid for Central America isn't its limited economic impact & counter-productive effects. It's the contradiction with long-standing U.S cooperation in the region. Twitter

Ivan Briscoe

Program Director, Latin America and Caribbean

Latest Updates

Bolivia Plans for an Uncertain Election

Amid political turmoil around Bolivia’s election last year, protesters from both sides took to the streets, and election-related violence killed at least 36 people. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2020 for European policymakers, Crisis Group urges the EU to work closely with all political parties to make sure a timely and credible presidential election takes place.

Also available in Español

Troubled Waters along the Guyana-Venezuela Border

Gold and migrants stream across the stretch of the Cuyuní river that marks the Guyana-Venezuela border. Guerrillas and criminal organisations control much of the flow. Their turf wars are already spilling over and could intensify if foreign powers intervene to topple Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Also available in Español

Local Polls in Colombia Put Peace to the Test

On 27 October, Colombia will hold its first local elections since a 2016 peace agreement between the government and FARC rebels. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Elizabeth Dickinson explains what is at stake politically and why so much violence has accompanied the campaign.

Also available in Español

Fight and Flight: Tackling the Roots of Honduras’ Emergency

Despite U.S. restrictions on Central American migration, Hondurans are fleeing north in record numbers as the country struggles with polarised government, corruption, poverty and violence. With outside help, Tegucigalpa should revisit its heavy-handed security policies and enact judicial and electoral reforms to avert future upheaval. 

Also available in Español

Picking Up the Pieces after Mexico’s Criminal Siege

Shocking pictures from Culiacán show a criminal organisation forcing the Mexican state into submission. In this Q&A, Crisis Group Senior Analyst Falko Ernst explains why the mayhem should compel the government to revisit its security paradigm.

Also available in Español

Our People

Ivan Briscoe

Program Director, Latin America and Caribbean
itbriscoe

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
philgunson

Estefanie Robertson

Operations Manager, Latin America

Elizabeth Dickinson

Senior Analyst, Colombia
dickinsonbeth

Falko Ernst

Senior Analyst, Mexico
falko_ernst

Bram Ebus

Consultant
BramEbus

Zaida Marquez

Communications and Advocacy Officer, Latin America
zalimarquez

Renata Segura

Deputy Program Director, Latin America and Caribbean
renaticas