Statement

On 5 September, Kenya’s Supreme Court upheld Deputy President William Ruto’s victory in the 9 August presidential election. The decision concludes a hard-fought electoral campaign that, despite high stakes, was peaceful and transparent, showing the strength of the country’s institutions.

Renewed fighting between a federal-Amhara-Eritrea coalition and Tigray’s forces has shattered a tenuous months-long truce. The reversal heralds a return to one of the world’s deadliest conflicts. International envoys should keep pressing the Ethiopian parties to renew the truce and begin formal direct negotiations.

A floating oil storage facility in Yemeni waters is on the verge of breaking or blowing up. Time is running out to raise the remaining $20 million needed for a salvage operation to prevent ecological and economic damage of historic proportions.

The UN Secretary-General is on his way to Moscow and Kyiv. With fighting still raging, he may find his diplomatic options limited, but nevertheless he should table proposals both for how to save lives now and how the UN might help with future peace talks.

A truce in Ethiopia has generated cautious optimism. As the belligerents take tentative steps toward peace, the first order of business is to surge humanitarian aid into Tigray and restore vital services. The country’s external partners should find ways to nudge all parties toward compromise.

With the war in Ukraine grinding on, Western governments should pursue a strategy that raises costs to Russia while urgently exploring the contours of a negotiated solution. Such an approach is imperative to halt Ukraine’s decimation – and to ward off the gravest threat of nuclear confrontation in decades.

Libya again has two rival administrations pressing claims to be the rightful government. Both sides have armed loyalists. Outside powers should join hands to help stop them from clashing once more.

The UN General Assembly begins an Emergency Special Session on the war in Ukraine. UN members, and especially those from Africa, Asia and Latin America, should use this opportunity to condemn Russia's aggression and take steps to contain and de-escalate the conflict.

Russia’s assault on Ukraine threatens to become the largest European conflict in decades. A vigorous but judicious Western and global response is critical to limit the damage.

On 24 December, the International Crisis Group's Board of Trustees appointed Dr. Comfort Ero as the organisation's President & CEO. In this inaugural message, she lays out her vision, goals and a personal vocation that underpins her career in preventing deadly conflict.

Cameroon will shortly begin hosting the biggest Africa Cup of Nations in history. Eight games will be held in Anglophone regions riven since 2016 by conflict between the government and separatists. Internal and external actors should seize the opportunity to broker a football truce.

Tigray’s leaders have withdrawn their forces from neighbouring regions and called for a cessation of hostilities followed by negotiations. Ethiopia’s federal government should grasp this opportunity to end the fighting, while international actors should step up to provide support for talks.

In this statement, Crisis Group corrects the record regarding William Davison, Senior Analyst for Ethiopia.

Federal forces have recorded gains in recent weeks but Ethiopia’s brutal civil war may well grind on without a winner. Addis Ababa must let more aid into blockaded Tigray and the region’s dissident leadership should recognise the federal government’s legitimacy pending detailed ceasefire talks.

A draft UN Security Council resolution would increase the United Nations’ attention to the effects of climate change on war and peace. Member states should back this initiative – notwithstanding a possible veto – to encourage odds of passage and promote international discussion of this vital subject.

The Sudanese military has ousted civilian leaders in a power grab that leaves the country’s transition in limbo. Led by the African Union, external actors should pull out all the stops to reverse a coup that could tip Sudan into sustained unrest and chaos.

Rival security forces came close to blows in Mogadishu amid a clash between the president and prime minister. These tensions are blocking the path to elections. International actors should name spoilers and wield sanctions against those who keep pushing Somalia to the edge of conflict. 

Ethiopia’s military withdrew from Tigray’s capital on 28 June, having suffered a string of battlefield reversals. Addis Ababa and Tigrayan leaders should now work on extending immediate aid to a population at risk of famine. They should also pursue political reconciliation in due time. 

A series of gestures from Caracas suggests that President Nicolás Maduro’s government might be more willing to negotiate with rivals and enact partial reforms. Washington should respond in kind with phased sanctions relief and diplomatic gestures that can be reversed if Venezuela backslides.

Citing Israeli obstruction, President Mahmoud Abbas has put off elections that were slated to begin in May. The decision is disappointing, as Palestinian institutions need refreshing. The polls should be rescheduled, with the full backing of outside powers, including the European Union and United States.