The first four months of Myanmar’s democratic government have set a positive tone. But de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi needs to find ways to bring peace with ethnic insurgents closer, rebalance relations with China, and overcome deeply ingrained problems in Rakhine State.
President Erdoğan has long seen himself as a natural ally of the Muslim Brotherhood throughout the Middle East. Any action against the Muslim Brotherhood he saw as a threat to himself.
[Netanyahu has released a surprise on-camera apology for warning about Arab ‘droves’ on Israel’s election last year.] One dimension is to improve Israel’s international image with respect to the Arab minority. Some international observers can find this credible.
[There is a need for an operational integration in the fight against Boko Haram in the Lake Chad basin.] Each force is based in its country of origin. There’s no integrated force with battalions moving in perfect coordination.
There is a general feeling in Afghanistan that violence has now become a tool for key individuals to exert their influence and expand their economic resources.
With the reestablishment of Afghanistan’s national air force, we’re seeing the Taliban being driven into the mountains more than previously.
[In Iraq, the U.S. and other nations are channelling resources into local Sunni coffers, a tactic used during the U.S.-led occupation.] What’s at stake is re-establishing the same sort of political order that actually led to the rise of [the Islamic State]. We have to be careful not to repeat the same mistakes of the past.
CrisisWatch is a monthly early-warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.
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Turkish leader’s instincts saved him from a coup, but his authoritarian instincts will again threaten his legitimacy.
Originally published in Politico Europe
When Burundians, and international mediators, finally meet in Arusha, they must remember the lessons of the last hard-won peace process more than a decade ago. The root causes of conflict in Burundi are political, not ethnic, and cannot be resolved by force. Compromise will be necessary, since neither the government nor the opposition have the means to win a definitive victory. Pursuing maximalist positions will only mean more hardship and bloodshed, which will further erode the real progress in reconciliation made since 2000. Genuine dialogue, addressing not only immediate problems but also fundamental political differences is needed to resolve the current crisis and chart a peaceful future for the country.
Alors que toute l’attention est concentrée sur le Nord du Mali, le centre du pays est en proie à une montée inquiétante de la violence. Des groupes armés, y compris radicaux, se développent, et profitent du discrédit de l’Etat auprès d’une partie des populations locales. Le gouvernement doit permettre le retour effectif des services publics sur ces territoires afin de rétablir l’autorité et la légitimité de l’Etat.
Hopes are high that one of the world’s longest-running civil conflicts can be resolved in the Philippines. The newly-elected president must act on his commitment to the outgoing administration’s promise of autonomy for the southern Bangsamoro (Muslim Nation) population. Failure to do so risks more lawlessness or reigniting the insurgency.