The DRC saw its first peaceful transition of power since independence after the December 2018 general elections, despite widespread reports of vote rigging. Since 2020, President Félix Tshisekedi has taken steps to consolidate his authority and to diminish the influence of his predecessor Joseph Kabila, who has commanded loyalty throughout the security services and continued to control state institutions and revenue streams since stepping down. But even as he promises change, Tshisekedi has inherited a system of violent kleptocracy and risks repeating his predecessors’ errors. There are already signs he may be taking a more repressive turn. Meanwhile, the country experiences instability in the east and continued threats by armed groups. Crisis Group aims to alert policymakers to the risk of a return to violence if domestic rivals fail to compromise in their disputes, especially since politicians are already gearing up for the 2023 elections.
Les risques qui pèsent sur le prochain cycle électoral en République démocratique du Congo sont nombreux. Pour les éviter, le gouvernement devrait veiller à ce que tous les partis puissent faire campagne et les puissances africaines et occidentales devraient inciter les parties à trouver des compromis et se préparer à jouer un éventuel rôle de médiation.
Large-scale fighting between M23 rebels and govt forces resumed in North Kivu after six months of precarious calm, fuelling tensions with Rwanda; political climate remained heated ahead of December elections.
Ceasefire between M23 and govt collapsed in North Kivu province. Wazalendo coalition of pro-govt armed groups 9 Oct seized strategic town of Kitshanga in Masisi territory from M23 rebel group after intense fighting, and around 11 Oct drove M23 from their stronghold of Bwiza (Bwito chiefdom) in neighbouring Rutshuru territory. Violence 15 Oct flared in Bwito’s Tongo and Bishusha groupements, and M23 overnight 22-23 Oct reportedly killed over 50 civilians in several villages of Tongo. Fighting also reported around 21 Oct in Masisi, with M23 regaining control of Kitshanga. Direct clashes between M23 and govt forces 24 Oct resumed at Kibumba town in Nyiragongo territory, about 20km north of provincial capital Goma. M23 rebels 25-26 Oct opened new front, seizing Bambo town in Rutshuru territory, 60km from Goma. Kinshasa 23-24 Oct released drone footage purportedly showing Rwandan army incursion into DR Congo in support of M23. Meanwhile, UN regional envoy 17 Oct said risk of “direct confrontation” between Kigali and Kinshasa is “very real” (see Rwanda).
Presidential election candidates engaged in heated rhetoric. Electoral commission 19 Oct published list 24 candidates registered for 20 Dec presidential election, pending Constitutional Court confirmation expected 18 Nov. Harsh rhetoric continued between candidates. Notably, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Denis Mukwege 2 Oct called current leadership “inconsistent, irresponsible and incompetent”, while incumbent President Tshisekedi 7 Oct warned against “candidates from abroad” in thinly veiled reference to Mukwege. Opposition seemed unable to build electoral alliance to rally behind single candidate against Tshisekedi. Fuelling divisions, prominent candidate Martin Fayulu 10 Oct said he was only candidate fit for the role and dismissed other candidates as “thieves”.
In other important developments. Suspected Islamic State-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces 23 Oct killed at least 26 civilians in Oicha town, Beni territory in North Kivu. Tshisekedi 12 Oct announced easing of state of siege (akin to martial law) in North Kivu and Ituri provinces, notably lifting curfew and allowing peaceful demonstrations, with military remaining in charge at provincial level.
If we can't negotiate a humanitarian corridor for the city [of Goma in eastern DR Congo], it will be a catastrophe.
Armed groups [in the Central African Republic] have been disbanded, but [they] still extort and harass the local population.
Le 30 août, des troupes d’élite ont massacré plus de 50 civils qui se préparaient à protester contre ce qu’ils percevaient comme de l’ingérence étrangère dans l’est de la République démocratique du Congo, trois mois avant les élections. Le gouvernement a demandé à l’ONU un retrait « accéléré ». Les experts de Crisis Group, Richard Moncrieff et Onesphore Sematumba, expliquent les enjeux.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Richard Moncrieff, Crisis Group’s interim Great Lakes project director, about an incident in which Rwanda's army shot at a Congolese fighter jet, raising fears that tensions between Kinshasa and Kigali could boil over.
Les tensions déjà très vives entre Kigali et Kinshasa ont été exacerbées par le tir des forces de défense rwandaises sur un avion de guerre congolais qu’elles accusent d’avoir violé l’espace aérien rwandais. Dans ce Q&A, Crisis Group examine pourquoi la situation s’est détériorée et esquisse des pistes pour une désescalade.
This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell is joined by Crisis Group consultant Richard Moncrieff to discuss recent developments in the conflict in the eastern DR Congo, tensions between Kinshasa and Kigali as well as regional and international efforts to address the crisis.
Les combats se sont intensifiés au Nord-Kivu, dans l’est de la République démocratique du Congo, et les rebelles du M23 encerclent désormais partiellement Goma, la capitale provinciale. Les dirigeants régionaux, en particulier au Kenya, devraient faire pression pour endiguer la progression des insurgés et inciter Kinshasa et Kigali à apaiser les tensions.
La recrudescence de la violence en RDC suscite des crispations dans la région des Grands Lacs. Dans cet extrait de la Watch List 2022 – Edition d’automne, Crisis Group explique ce que l’UE et ses Etats membres peuvent faire pour contribuer à rétablir la stabilité dans la région.
Les dirigeants d’Afrique de l’Est ont convenu de créer une force pour combattre les groupes armés dans l’est de la République démocratique du Congo. Les autorités congolaises ont annoncé un premier déploiement, mais des obstacles persistent. Nelleke van de Walle, experte de Crisis Group, décrit le plan et ses risques.
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