Pierre Nkurunziza’s 2015 re-election for a third, unconstitutional term sparked a political and economic crisis marked by violent repression and deteriorated living conditions, pushing over 400,000 Burundians to flee the country. Evariste Ndayishimiye’s May 2020 election as Burundi’s new president has so far not lead to major political and economic changes, but he has reached out to regional and international actors, partly ending the country’s insularity, and thousands of those who fled following the 2015 crisis have returned. Through field-based research and engagement with government and foreign actors, Crisis Group aims to alert policymakers to the risk of ethnic polarisation. We advocate for respect of the 2000 Arusha agreement and renewed engagement with the Burundian authorities, conditional on respect for human rights, a functioning opposition and civil society, and independent media.
Les combats s'intensifient dans l'est de la République démocratique du Congo, où des forces ougandaises et burundaises pourchassent des rebelles pendant qu’une insurrection congolaise renaît. Kinshasa, soutenue par ses alliés, devrait redoubler d’efforts diplomatiques pour éviter que le pays ne devienne à nouveau un champ de bataille régional.
President Ndayishimiye reshuffled govt in apparent attempt to ensure loyalty of inner circle amid ruling party divisions.
Govt reshuffle exposed ruling party divisions. PM Gervais Ndirakobuca 2 Oct presented review of govt performance to parliament, acknowledging achievement gaps in several sectors, including interior, justice and education. However, govt reshuffle announced next day seemed to reward ministers for their loyalty, rather than performance, with President Ndayishimiye replacing health, agriculture, public service and youth ministers, while those in charge of poorly performing sectors stayed on. Reshuffle came as Sec Gen of ruling party, Révérien Ndikuriyo, recently toured country in apparent attempt to bolster his popularity; Ndikuriyo’s mounting ambitions could presage growing frictions with Ndayishimiye.
Authorities arrested opposition party leader. Authorities 17 Oct arrested head of opposition party Council for Democracy and Sustainable Development in Burundi, Kefa Nibizi, over accusations of undermining state security days after party blamed “unprecedented misery” on “failing leadership”; Nibizi granted provisional release 21 Oct. In separate development, Supreme Court 2 Oct denied bail to former PM Alain Guillaume Bunyoni, who has been held in pre-trial detention since April on charges of undermining state security.
Burundi saw wins and losses at UN Human Rights Council. UN General Assembly 10 Oct elected Burundi and 14 other member states to Human Rights Council for three-year term. Human Rights Council 12 Oct extended mandate of special rapporteur for Burundi for another year, citing continued “human rights violations and abuses” in country; Gitega expressed frustration, saying resolution was politically motivated. UN special rapporteur 25 Oct presented annual report on situation of human rights in Burundi to UN General Assembly, noted “shrinking civic space” and “growing pressure on political parties, civil society organisations and the media” ahead of 2025 legislative and municipal elections.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to Great Lakes expert Nelleke van de Walle about the escalation of violence in the eastern DR Congo, as Uganda and Burundi deploy troops to fight rebels in the area and Rwanda threatens to do the same.
Every year Crisis Group publishes two additional Watch List updates that complement its annual Watch List for the EU, most recently published in January 2021. These publications identify major crises and conflict situations where the European Union and its member states can generate stronger prospects for peace. The Autumn Update of the Watch List 2021 includes entries on Afghanistan, Burundi, Iran, Nagorno-Karabakh and Nicaragua.
Les réformes promises par le Président burundais Evariste Ndayishimiye ont apaisé les relations avec l’UE. Dans cet extrait de notre Watch List 2021 – Edition d’automne, Crisis Group exhorte l’UE et ses Etats membres à énoncer des critères précis en matière de respect des droits humains au Burundi et à veiller au respect des accords conclus entre l’UE et le Burundi.
Au cours de sa première année au poste de président du Burundi, Evariste Ndayishimiye a affiché une volonté de réforme et de reprise du dialogue avec les partenaires internationaux. Dans ce Q&A, les experts de Crisis Group cherchent à déterminer si les tenants de la ligne dure du parti au pouvoir empêcheront le pays de prendre un tournant décisif.
Le 20 mai, dans le contexte de l’épidémie de Covid-19, les Burundais éliront un nouveau président ainsi que leurs futurs députés et conseillers municipaux. Dans ce Q&A, Crisis Group analyse les différents scénarios pour ces élections et les difficultés auxquelles le nouveau président sera confronté.
Au Burundi, le parti au pouvoir déclare avoir mis un terme aux contributions initialement imposées en vue de financer les élections prévues au mois de mai. Néanmoins, ces pratiques confiscatoires se poursuivent. La suppression définitive de ces contributions serait un premier pas vers des réformes de gouvernance plus globales dans le pays.
President Tshisekedi’s plans for joint operations with DR Congo’s belligerent eastern neighbours against its rebels risks regional proxy warfare. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2020 for European policymakers, Crisis Group urges the EU to encourage diplomatic efforts in the region and Tshisekedi to shelve his plan for the joint operations.
Trois Etats de la région des Grands Lacs – Burundi, Rwanda et Ouganda – s’accusent mutuellement de subversion, chacun reprochant à l’autre de soutenir des rebelles en République démocratique du Congo, leur voisin commun. Les puissances extérieures devraient aider le président congolais à dénouer ces tensions pour éviter une mêlée meurtrière.
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