Tajikistan is tightly controlled by President Emomali Rahmon and a complex system of patronage and political repression are the hallmarks of his rule. The government’s elimination of moderate Islamic opposition risks creating an opening for violent jihadists and the country faces growing instability along its southern border with conflict-plagued Afghanistan. Through field research, analytical reports and advocacy, Crisis Group aims to mitigate Tajikistan’s internal and external threats and inform national and regional stakeholders about the risk of political instability and radicalisation in the face of government policies.
Four Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – have argued over their water resources since the collapse of the Soviet Union. At times these disputes have seemed to threaten war. The forthcoming presidential summit in Astana can help banish that spectre.
Tajik and Russian leaders pledged to intensify joint counterterrorism efforts following terrorist attack in Russian capital; Tajik-Kyrgyz border talks continued to progress.
Russian authorities charged four Tajik citizens in connection with terrorist attack. Following 22 March deadly terrorist attack in Russian capital Moscow, for which Islamic State (ISIS) claimed responsibility, Russian authorities arrested four Tajik citizens, who appeared in court 24 March to hear charges, bearing visible signs of abuse (see Russia). President Rahmon 24 March condemned attack during call with Russian President Putin; Kremlin afterwards said pair had agreed to intensify joint counterterrorism efforts. Tajik authorities next day began questioning suspects’ relatives; according to 29 March media reports, Tajik authorities reportedly detained at least nine people in connection with attack. Meanwhile, Russia witnessed uptick in anti-Tajik sentiment, with migrants reportedly subjected to verbal abuse and harassment from law enforcement.
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan agreed on over 10km of border. Tajik-Kyrgyz talks on border delimitation and demarcation 12-17 March took place in Sughd region. Kyrgyz officials 17 March announced sides had agreed on just under 11km of border and signed protocols; parties agreed to hold next meeting in Kyrgyzstan.
The prevailing calm in Gorno-Badakhshan in Tajikistan's remote east does not rule out the prospect of a clash between local powerbrokers and Dushanbe authorities. To mitigate the risks of a local flare-up and regional power rivalry, China and Russia should communicate with each other and nudge President Rahmon toward a smooth transition of power.
With his seven-year term set to end in 2020, uncertainty is growing over whether Tajikistan’s long-time ruler President Rahmon will handpick a successor or continue his reign. Growing troubles at home and abroad ensure both scenarios are fraught with risk and must be managed prudently, lest the country become another source of regional disorder.
Plagued by violence, corruption and economic hardship, and exposed to a long, insecure border with Afghanistan, Tajikistan is under dangerous stress. President Rahmon’s autocratic undermining of the 1997 peace agreement is fostering Islamic radicalisation. As Tajikistan’s growing fragility impacts a brittle region, the country must become a conflict-prevention priority.
Growing tensions in the Ferghana Valley are exacerbated by disputes over shared water resources. To address this, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan urgently need to step back from using water or energy as a coercive tool and focus on reaching a series of modest, bilateral agreements, pending comprehensive resolution of this serious problem.
Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.
This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our privacy policy for more details.