Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping via a video link at the Kremlin in Moscow on December 30, 2022. Russian leader told his Chinese counterpart on December 30 he was keen to ramp up military cooperation and hailed the two countries' efforts to counter Western influence.

Global Politics in the Shadow of Ukraine

The following is adapted from a March 2023 report by Crisis Group’s President and CEO Comfort Ero to the organisation’s Trustees (before Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s 20-21 March visit to Moscow). She looks at the Ukraine war and its knock-on effects – from big-power polarisation to middle-power activism and disquiet outside the West about the conflict.

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In UN debates over Russia’s war in Ukraine, Western countries are still pledging to back Kyiv militarily, while non-Western states are more inclined to call for a negotiated peace. Thus far, however, the latter’s proposals for reaching that goal have been short on detail.

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The war in Ukraine has roiled Europe and shaken up the global economy. Its ripple effects will continue to be felt around the globe. Meanwhile, other crises loom. Here are the International Crisis Group’s Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2023.

In The News

13 Mar 2023
We can see a de-escalation in the regional layer of the [Saudi-Iranian] conflict. It is a multi-layered conflict, with domestic and regional causes, not just a proxy war Financial Times

Ahmed Nagi

Senior Analyst, Yemen
7 Mar 2023
Beijing will have to publicly condemn [Taiwan President] Tsai’s visit to the US, their ultimate response will depend on what Tsai says and who she meets with on her trip. The Guardian

Amanda Hsiao

Senior Analyst, China
3 Mar 2023
[Israeli settlers] are completely emboldened by this government. They have the legitimacy they didn’t have before politically and that gives settlers a lot more audacity. TIME

Mairav Zonszein

Senior Analyst, Israel-Palestine
27 Feb 2023
If it wasn't because of Mahsa Amini's tragic death, there would have been another trigger. There's just so much pent up frustration within the Iranian society. NPR

Ali Vaez

Senior Adviser to the President & Project Director, Iran
22 Feb 2023
What Somaliland is probably trying to do by saying there are terrorists involved in the fighting is to discredit their opponent. The Guardian

Nicolas Delaunay

Project Director, East and Southern Africa
22 Feb 2023
The UAE has, since 2021, embarked on a policy of diminishing tensions with other countries in the region, and normalizing with Assad is part of that. Al Monitor

Dina Esfandiary

Senior Advisor, Middle East and North Africa

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The International Crisis Group is an independent organisation working to prevent wars and shape policies that will build a more peaceful world. We sound the alarm to prevent deadly conflict. We build support for the good governance and inclusive politics that enable societies to flourish. We engage directly with a range of conflict actors to seek and share information, and to encourage intelligent action for peace.

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