Brazil is in the midst of deep polarisation between left- and right-leaning political forces, with the former's champion, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, narrowly prevailing over the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 presidential election. The road ahead could be rocky: Bolsonaro's loyalists are a sizeable bloc in the national legislature; his social base appears strong and defiant; and after several violent incidents marred the campaign, the risk of more cannot be discounted. The stakes of the struggle include the fate of the vast Amazon rainforest, which Lula has vowed to protect from logging, mining, ranching and other industries. Through advocacy and periodic reporting, Crisis Group works to lower the political temperature and encourage stability in the world's seventh most populous country.
On 8 and 9 August, the presidents of eight countries will meet in Brazil to discuss means of countering the threats facing the Amazon rainforest. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Bram Ebus explains that inter-governmental cooperation and a regional security strategy will be essential.
Lula’s return to the presidency promises a stronger role for Brazil in multilateral diplomacy. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to make the most of this opportunity.
The assault on Brazilian state institutions purposely evoked the 2021 incursion into the U.S. Capitol. As in the aftermath of that event, the job of law enforcement overlaps with the more delicate task of identifying the political and financial circles that made the riot possible.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Ivan Briscoe and Renata Segura, Crisis Group’s Latin America director and deputy director, about President Lula’s election win in Brazil and whether a new group of leftist leaders across Latin America can help end some of the continent’s crises, notably in Venezuela and Haiti.
Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s president, risks losing his October bid for re-election. If he disputes the result, his shrinking but increasingly far-right support base might take to the streets. State institutions should prepare to deal with baseless fraud accusations and to curb possible violence.
As momentum builds for impeaching President Jair Bolsonaro, he relies on the armed forces for support. Will the generals stay the course? Could they break with him, at peril to their institutional interests? These questions, crucial to Brazilian politics, have no obvious answer.
Despite mishandling a pandemic that has claimed over 160,000 lives, Brazil’s president is enjoying a surge in popularity thanks to emergency cash transfers and reduced political tensions. But his fortunes may turn, and the threat he poses to Brazilian democracy rise again.
The frontier between Brazil and its crisis-ridden neighbour Venezuela has become a major migration route, a hotspot for crime and a flashpoint for violence.
The frontier between Brazil and its crisis-ridden neighbour Venezuela has become a major migration route, a hotspot for crime and a flashpoint for violence. This is the first of three commentaries on Venezuela’s troubled borderlands.
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