Tracking Conflict Worldwide

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CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Outlook for This Month January 1970

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Conflict in Focus

In Pakistan, political turmoil worsened as the Supreme Court disqualified Prime Minister Yousuf Gilani following his contempt of court conviction for refusing to reopen a corruption case against President Zardari. Gilani’s departure deepened the standoff between the courts and the executive and legislative branches; a standoff that plays into the hands of the Pakistani military. Senior People’s Party (PPP) member Raja Ashraf was ultimately appointed new prime minister after an arrest warrant was issued against Gilani’s anointed successor. Makhdoom Shahabuddin. on charges brought by the military-dominated Anti-Narcotics Force.

CrisisWatch Digests

The security situation in Afghanistan deteriorated with a series of militant bombings, including a Taliban assault on a hotel outside Kabul that killed ten. In Khost, a suicide bomber killed 21 at a checkpoint, including three U.S. soldiers. In Logar province, a NATO missile killed up to 18 civilians celebrating a wedding: President Karzai condemned the strike and NATO commander General Allen visited the area shortly afterwards to apologise.

Nagorno-Karabakh witnessed some of its worst violence in recent years with escalating clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani troops resulting in numerous casualties. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has warned tensions could escalate into broader conflict, while OSCE Chairman Eamon Gilmore has urged both sides against using force to resolve their long-running dispute.

The Democratic Republic of Congo’s eastern Kivu provinces saw increasing violence and displacement as the army continued to hunt April’s mutineers. Relations with neighbouring Rwanda deteriorated after reports emerged that top Rwandan government and army officials are backing the rebellion. Crisis Group identifies a conflict risk for the Congo.

In Paraguay, the removal of President Fernando Lugo by the Senate – ostensibly over the killing of seventeen people during land clashes – provoked widespread criticism. Neighbouring countries refused to recognise any new government led by Vice President Federico Franco and regional organisation UNASUR suspended Paraguay from the MERCOSUR common market. Lugo, meanwhile, has vowed to return to power.

Crisis Group identifies a conflict risk in Myanmar. Ethnic tensions flared in Rakhine State after the rape and murder of a Buddhist woman – blamed on an ethnic Rohingya Muslim – set off a chain reaction of riots and reprisal killings. The ensuing wave of ethnic violence has displaced some 90,000 people; the government has declare a state of emergency.

Violence continued unabated throughout Syria, with scores of civilians massacred and increasingly ferocious fighting between rebels and pro-regime forces, prompting the suspension of the UN observation mission amidst warnings of all-out sectarian war by UN/Arab League envoy Kofi Annan. The Syrian army’s downing of a Turkish fighter jet off the Syrian coast prompted Ankara to warn that Syrian military units approaching its border would be treated as a threat.

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Brussels public prosecutor 7 June announced investigation into money laundering accusations against Ombudsman Mohamed Rukara. Juvenal Havyarimana, MSD opposition party member kidnapped 29 May, found dead 5 June. APRODH prisoners’ rights group 6 June accused army of summarily executing Jean-Petit Nduwimana, former spy chief and alleged leader of rebel Forces for the Restoration of Democracy (FRD). Public prosecutor 12 June announced creation of commission to investigate extrajudicial executions; mandate includes identifying false accusations, raising concerns local NGOs, rights groups could be prosecuted. Journalist sentenced 21 June to life imprisonment for “terrorism”, journalist unions condemned trial as politically motivated. Army 24 June confirmed gunfight with armed group from DRC in Bubanza province, said 41 killed. UNSG Ban 7 June appointed Parfait Onanga-Anyanga as SR to Burundi. President Nkurunziza 27 June pardoned several thousand prisoners to mark 50th anniversary of independence, address prison overcrowding.


Opposition welcomed 30 May govt announcement postponing local elections to July 2013, but reiterated demands for single ballot, two-round election and use of biometric checks.

Central African Republic

Finance Minister and nephew of President Bozizé, Sylvan Ndoutinga, accused of involvement in coup plot, dismissed 1 June. Unidentified armed men mid-June occupied village near Markounda in NW, tried to recruit local youths. Unidentified armed men 24 June raided site of French uranium mining company Areva at Bakouma, SE.


Judge Emmanuel Dekeumbé removed from office following refusal to sentence opposition MP Gali Ngoté Gata, arrested 4 March for poaching; opposition decried removal. Senegal Justice Ministry 4 June said preparations underway to try former President Habré.

Côte d’Ivoire

7 UN peacekeepers, 10 civilians killed 6 June in SW by militias from Liberia; 5 civilians killed 11 June in attacks on Ivorian border villages; UN official 21 June said over 13,000 people in SW have fled homes since attacks; PM Ahousso-Kouadio 19 June blamed “last jolts” of Gbagbo regime. President Ouattara 15 June called for better regional cooperation to tackle insecurity, illicit arms flows. Govt 13 June announced foiled coup plot by suspected Gbagbo loyalists following rumours Gbagbo could be granted temporary release by ICC. Ex-Gbagbo ally Moïse Lida Kouassi arrested 7 June in Togo.

Democratic Republic of Congo

Human Rights Watch 4 June reported Rwandan officials supplying Ntaganda with troops, weapons. EU, U.S. 7 June released statements acknowledging external support to M23; UN SRSG Roger Meece 13 June warned UNSC mutiny in east threatens to destabilise region; UNSC 16 June requested enquiry into external support to M23. FARDC defection continued throughout month; M23 extended control in Kivus, pushed back FARDC offensive. CNDP delegation 18 June initiated MONUSCO-facilitated talks with govt. Rwandan govt officials met with DRC counterparts 19 June, reiterated denial of Rwandan support for mutineers; DRC govt 20 June warned of “rupture of the peace” between the two states. AU 21 June called for end to mutiny, use of “political channels” to address concerns. Govt accused U.S. of blocking inclusion of findings on Rwanda’s involvement in interim UN Group of Experts report released 22 June. UNSC 27 June extended MONUSCO peacekeeping mandate 1 year to June 2013. Garamba National Park rangers 6 June clashed with some 50 LRA combatants.


Court 27 June found 24, including journalist Eskinder Nega and opposition member Andualem Arage, guilty of terrorism, increasing fears over freedom of speech. UN guard found guilty of “participating in terrorist organisation” for alleged links to Ogaden National Liberation Front sentenced 22 June to 7 years in prison. Govt 22 June said Ethiopian troops to remain in Somalia until new Somali constitution ratified, security situation stabilised. Human Rights Watch 18 June reported govt displacing tens of thousands in Omo Valley. Govt 22 June announced arrest of 14 suspected gunmen in connection with April attack on farm, March killing of 19 bus passengers in Gambella.


Controversial loan with South African mining company Palladino revealed 3 June, prompted international criticism, early reimbursement of loan. Authorities ordered removal of roadblocks throughout country after riots over 4 June killing of cabdriver by soldier at Mamou roadblock. Social Guinean Movement 14 June called on govt to disband electoral commission (CENI) in order to resolve voter registration dispute; opposition parties criticised National Transition Council (CNT) for inaction; CNT president 21 June vowed to participate in CENI reform; opposition called on supporters to observe ‘ghost town day’ 28 June to push for CENI reconstitution, warned electoral commission against resuming voter registration without prior political consensus. Territorial Administration Minister Alhassane Condé 23 June reiterated ban on political demonstrations.


600-strong ECOWAS mission deployed as Angola 6-10 June withdrew MISSANG troops. Chief of staff António Indjai 6 June accused Angola of funding destabilisation attempts in G-B. Tension between ECOWAS and CPLP paralysed 7 June meeting of International Contact Group on G-B. Transition authorities excluded from 20 July CPLP meeting in Maputo, 21 June released Rear Admiral Bubo Na Tchuto arrested for failed 26 Dec 2011 coup.


Investigation launched into death of Internal Security Minister George Saitoti and 5 others in helicopter crash 10 June.Prosecutors, defence lawyers early June agreed on post- election March 2013 start date for ICC trial, awaiting judges’ decision. Police 22 June announced arrest of 2 Iranian terror suspects in Nairobi. U.S. embassy 23 June warned of imminent terror attack in Mombasa; grenade attack 24 June killed 3. Driver killed, 4 aid workers kidnapped at Dadaab refugee camp by suspected al-Shabaab sympathisers. PM Odinga 12 June said Kenyan Defence Forces planning “final onslaught” on Somalia’s Kismayo port before Somalia’s scheduled 20 Aug presidential elections. Kenyan troops integrated into AMISOM 2 June. Some 200 28 June protested outside parliament against impunity, corruption; same day, High Court quashed corruption charges against former govt minister Henry Kosgey.


President Johnson Sirleaf 9 June closed border with Côte d’Ivoire, 14 June said working with Côte d’Ivoire President Ouattara to deal with deadly border attacks. Govt 14 June announced orders to arrest 10 Liberians and Ivorians in connection with attacks; court 21 June ordered extradition of 41 Ivorians for suspected role in 2011 post-election violence.


At 1 June Troika summit, SADC called for urgent meeting between transitional President Rajoelina, former President Ravalomanana, 15 June threatened their exclusion from future talks if negotiations failed; leaders 15 June reportedly agreed to meet in Luanda 4 July. UN electoral mission report 8 June recommended May/June 2013 polls; Rajoelina, election commission appealed to UN to support 2012 polls. 4 suspects, including 2 army officers, arrested following alleged 8 June coup plot. Govt forces 20 June began assault on bandits in Befotaka following series of attacks. 11 bodies, suspected policemen, discovered 19 June in SW following 9 June military clash with armed ox rustlers.


Govt 8 June cancelled planned AU Summit after AU pressure to include Sudanese President Bashir, despite ICC arrest warrant. Parliament Speaker 21 June rejected Democratic People’s Party petitions for by-elections following mass defection to President Banda’s People’s Party. Banda 18 June received Commission of Inquiry report into July 2011 demonstration killings.


Support and follow-up group meeting in Abidjan 7 June demanded immediate dissolution of military junta. ECOWAS, AU 14 June called for UN military intervention; UNSC 18 June said willing to discuss backing of African intervention force. Following failure of negotiations MNLA, Ansar Dine clashed 7-8 June near Kidal, 13 June near Timbuktu. MNLA 27 June lost Gao HQ to MUJWA, Timbuktu base 29 June to Ansar Dine. Ansar Dine 18 June met with Burkina Faso president and regional mediator Blaise Compaoré, agreed to talks on crisis, 30 June destroyed several mausoleums in Timbuktu. Govt 9 June announced creation of committee for army reform incorporating junta elements.


7 killed 20 June in clashes between farmers, herders in SW. European Commission 6 June said civilian mission to train police/gendarmerie/national guard to be deployed in July. President Issoufou 16 June said military intervention in Mali necessary. FM Bazoum 4 June said military option “only solution to deal with AQIM”.


Over 100 killed 17-19 June in Kaduna state and Damaturu city: at least 40 killed in Damaturu firefight between suspected Boko Haram (BH) and soldiers 18 June; BH attack on 3 churches in Kaduna state 17 June killed at least 16, sparked reprisals, sectarian clashes leaving scores dead; police 26 June killed at least 17 suspected BH in Kano shoot-out. Additional BH attacks on churches, police in North continued throughout month, dozens killed. Security forces 30 June clashed with BH in Damaturu. Gunmen 29 June killed 5 policemen in Adamawa state. 40 inmates freed 24 June in BH raid on Yobo state prison. President Jonathan 22 June sacked security adviser Owoye Azazi, Defence Minister Bello Mohammed. Suspected armed robbers 11 June raided villages in northern Zamfara state, at least 27 killed.


President Kagame 18 June announced official end to community-based Gacaca courts. Govt continued to deny support to DRC mutineers; Kagame 19 June said Rwanda “scapegoat” for conflict in Kivus, 21 June called on DRC govt to take responsibility, stop blaming Kigali. FM 27 June said UN report accusing Kigali of backing mutiny incomplete, biased. Court 29 June postponed verdict in terrorism case against opposition leader Victoire Ingabire to 7 Sept.


Casamance separatist (MFDC) leader Salif Sadio 1 June called for international mediation to resolve conflict, announced readiness to release prisoners if govt accepts Sant’Egidio mediators; President Sall 27 June expressed readiness for dialogue.


Transitional Federal Government (TFG), regional govts, Ahlu Sunna 22 June signed agreement in Nairobi on proposed constitution; Independent Federal Constitutional Commission (IFCC), tasked with drafting constitution, 25 June rejected Nairobi agreement, declared IFCC version only valid constitution; TFG Council of Ministers stated IFCC mandate ended, released Nairobi draft constitution. Traditional elders 20 June recommended enlargement of new Parliament from 225 to 275 seats, as well as creation of Upper Chamber for elders; PM rejected proposal, said elders’ mandate limited to selecting MPs, members of constituent assembly. SRSG for Somalia 13 June said UN plans to send international observers to elders’ meeting tasked with selecting delegates to constituent assembly. TFG President Sharif 20 June announced intention to stand for new term in office when term expires in 2 months; some 20 candidates reportedly plan to run including TFG President Sharif, PM Abdiweli Mohamed Ali, Parliament Speaker Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan. Sporadic attacks on AU, Ethiopian forces continued throughout month. Ethiopian troops, Ahlu Sunna fighters reportedly withdrew from Al Bur, central Somalia, early June. Kenyan forces 7 June shelled Kismayo port city; AU, TFG forces 22 June extended areas under control, took Balad town.


5 govt delegates 20 June met with Somali govt representatives to discuss future of breakaway region; President Silanyo 28 June met with Somalia counterpart, agreed to continue dialogue, boost cooperation. Hargeisa head judge shot 11 June; Sool region Attorney General killed by gunmen late June. Skirmishes in breakaway Khatumo region continued.

South Sudan

Govt 1 June said complaint filed with UNSC against Sudan for continued presence in disputed Abyei, 13 June said seeking international arbitration for border dispute. UNSC 18 June welcomed resumption of negotiations, reduction of violence, called on Sudan to withdraw police from Abyei. Talks with Sudan 4, 21 June failed to achieve real progress after negotiators disagreed on delimitation of Safe Demilitarised Border Zone. UN 14 June announced investigation into reports police abducted, raped women during Jonglei disarmament; UNMISS 24 June released report into intercommunal violence, criticised “longstanding impunity”. Justice Minister Mohamed Dousa appointed new war crimes prosecutor for Darfur.


Anti-govt protests sparked by austerity measures erupted 16 June, continuing in Khartoum, other main cities; police forcibly dispersed demonstrators, President Bashir said violence attributable to “a few agitators”. Opposition parties 26 June failed to agree on common political platform, constitutional framework. Clashes between Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and SPLM-N rebels in South Kordofan, Blue Nile states continued throughout month, thousands displaced; govt 27 June agreed to UN humanitarian assistance to civilians in SPLM-N held areas. Opposition Popular Congress Party senior member Ibrahim al-Sonosi released from prison 11 June after 5-month detention. SAF 2 June said 45 JEM rebels killed in east Darfur; JEM said army compound seized. Khartoum 2 June said police forces pulled out from Abyei, removing obstacle to S Sudan talks; talks 4, 21 June failed after negotiators disagreed on delimitation of Safe Demilitarised Border Zone.


In State of the Nation address, President Museveni 7 June criticised opposition leader Kizza Besigye for “lawlessness”, said media “unprofessional”. Media 20 June reported rift in ruling National Resistance Movement following by-election loss. Police 18 June broke up 3-day gay rights meeting, briefly detained 5 participants, reportedly on the order of Minister for Ethics Simon Lokodo; Lokodo 20 June announced 30 NGOs to be banned for “promotion” of homosexuality. Police 4 June arrested suspected al-Shabaab terrorist.


SADC Troika summit 1 June called for GPA implementation, reforms before polls, elections within 12 months; 2-member SADC Troika team 11 June deployed to Zimbabwe to assist Joint Monitoring and Implementation Committee in GPA implementation. Constitution Select Committee (COPAC) 21 June announced progress in constitution talks following 17-20 June meeting; GPA parties 28 June reportedly said South Africa President Zuma visit should wait until COPAC submits final draft of constitution. Zanu-PF Defence Minister Mnangagwa reportedly threatened MDC Finance Minister Biti for failing to release funds for recruitment of new soldiers; Biti 14 June said illegal recruitment of 4,600 soldiers Jan-May straining army budget. Police 4 June tear-gassed MDC-T youth outside bail hearing of 29 activists accused of murdering policeman in May 2011.



Month saw increased violence: 21 killed 6 June in suicide bomb attack, Kandahar; 3 gunmen dressed in police uniforms killed 1 U.S. soldier, wounded 9 others in Zhari, Kandahar; roadside bomb killed 3 women, 4 children 20 June, Logar province; suicide bomber killed 21 including 3 U.S. soldiers and Afghan interpreter at checkpoint in Khost, 20 June; at least 18 killed in Taliban assault on hotel outside Kabul, 22 June. 10 Afghan policemen killed 26-27 June in insurgent attacks. NATO airstrike 6 June killed up to 18 civilians celebrating wedding in Logar province; President Karzai 7 June condemned strike; NATO commander General Allen visited area 8 June to apologise. Ministry of Justice mid- month suspended left-wing Solidarity Party for organising protest calling for accountability for war crimes; move followed calls by Upper House of Parliament for investigation, possible prosecution of group leaders; activists claimed decision contravened Afghan law, freedom of speech. U.S. Defense Secretary visited early month, called for India to play “more active role”. Govt 19 June accused Pakistan of involvement in Dec 2011 attack on Shiite Ashura procession in Kabul.


Hundreds injured in mid-month large-scale garment worker strikes in Ashulia; hundreds arrested, 10 local BNP leaders charged with provocation. Second International Crimes Tribunal early June indicted several suspects including Jamaat-e-Islami leader Muhammad Kamaruzzaman, SG Ali Ahsan Mohammad, BNP leader Abdul Alim for war crimes. Opposition leaders accused of 29 April torching of bus in front of PM’s office released on bail 14 June. Pirgachha district Awami League leader Mofizul Islam killed 21 June, 20 others injured at party meeting in clash between party factions.


Suspected Maoist rebels 2 June beheaded 3 of 5 people previously abducted from Bara Basdeopur village, 5 June killed 2 in Kuitopa village, 19 June abducted 2 in Bihar. Security forces 18 June demolished Maoist training camp near Odisha, 2 Maoists surrendered. Security forces 6 June arrested Maoist rebel involved in 200 attacks in Delhi, 10 June arrested 3 suspected Maoists in Minapur-Tariyani border area, 26 June arrested 7, recovered explosives cache in Jharkhand. Head of banned Ranvir Sena militia Brahmeshwar Mukhiya 1 June shot dead in Bhojpur district, authorities declared curfew. Key suspect in coordinating 2008 Mumbai terrorist bombings reportedly arrested 21 June.

India-Pakistan (Kashmir)

Grenade blast outside paramilitary bunker 17 June killed 5 Indian soldiers. Pakistani forces 13 June killed 1 Indian soldier along Line of Control in firefight. 4 Indian policemen arrested mid-month on suspicion of ties to Hizbul Mujahideen Indian separatist group. Police 25 June tear-gassed protestors demonstrating against destruction of temple in Srinagar, at least 6 injured.


String of shootings in Jayapura beginning 29 May saw 3 killed, 6 wounded; police say members of W Papua National Committee (KNPB) responsible. Police 14 June killed KNPB deputy chair Mako Tabuni, claimed he resisted arrest; several other KNPB figures, including leader Buchtar Tabuni, arrested for alleged role in shootings; police 7 June killed man in Jayapura. 1 killed in Wamena after soldiers rioted following 6 June stabbing of soldier. 4 killed in ongoing clashes between tribal groups in Timika 2, 18, 20 June. Labour clashes with ethnic overtones 18 June in Batam killed 1. Former Aceh governor Irwandi Yusuf assaulted 23 June by Partai Aceh (PA) thugs while returning from installation of PA governor. PA truck fired on later that night by unknown gunmen. 2002 Bali bombing suspect Umar Patek found guilty of mass murder 21 June, sentenced to 20 years jail.

Korean Peninsula

DPRK 9 June accused ROK of attempting to provoke govt into conducting nuclear test, 17 June criticised 14 June comments by U.S. Secretary of State Clinton urging Kim Jong-un to chart different course to father Kim Jong- il. Clinton, U.S. Defense Secretary Panetta 14 June hosted  talks with ROK counterparts; U.S. President Obama 18 June extended sanctions against DPRK. U.S., Japan, South Korea 21 June began joint naval exercises near China, Korean Peninsula; DPRK called drills “reckless”, said they could lead to nuclear war, called use of its flag during drills “a grave provocative act”. ROK 28 June announced plans to sign treaty with Japan to encourage sharing of military data on DPRK. 29 June report by UN Panel of Experts said DPRK continuing to actively defy UN sanction resolutions.


Ethnic tensions flared in Rakhine State, following late May rape, murder of Buddhist woman; revenge attack 3 June killed 10 Rohingya Muslims, followed by rioting, killing of at least 60 Buddhists, Muslims; UN estimated 90,000 displaced; govt 10 June declared state of emergency; U.S. embassy 19 June praised measured govt response to violence. Govt, Kachin Independence Army held two more rounds of informal talks 1, 20 June as fighting continued; govt 21 June overruled law banning Kachin Independence Organisation. Govt troops 16 June set alight Shan State Army-South base; rebel leaders said attack threatened May peace agreement. President Thein Sein 19 June announced “second wave of reforms” focusing on economic liberalisation. Press Scrutiny and Registration Department head Tint Swe late May announced end to media censorship from end June. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi met govt leaders across Europe during 14-25 June visit. Swiss govt 14 June announced ending of sanctions except arms embargo.


Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) 18 June split; dissident Mohan Baidya ‘Kiran’ faction formed new party, Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist. Madhesi People’s Rights Forum-Democratic split 10 June following resignation of 10 members. Opposition protested PM Baburam Bhattarai’s call for November elections to new Constituent Assembly (CA), including in mass meeting. Reinstatement of CA being floated by various actors. Committee 15 June announced investigation into 31 May murder of Supreme Court judge.


Month saw significant political turmoil: Supreme Court 19 June disqualified PM Yousuf Gilani from office following contempt of court conviction for refusal to request reopening of corruption case against President Zardari, 27 June demanded new PM Raja Ashraf request reopening of case; Special Anti-Narcotics court 21 June issued arrest warrant against nominated successor Makhdoom Shahabuddin on charges filed by military-dominated Anti-Narcotics Force. Son of Supreme Court Justice Chaudhry, Arslan Iftikhar, accused 12 June of blackmail by businessman Malik Riaz; Supreme Court 13 June initiated contempt of court proceedings against Riaz. Frenchman suspected of being “key al-Qaeda operative” arrested 20 June near Iran border. Violent riots over power cuts erupted mid-month across country. Controversial Commission investigating “memogate” scandal involving former ambassador to U.S. Haqqani 12 June submitted report to Supreme Court, “incontrovertibly established” memo authentic, said Haqqani’s “loyalties not with Pakistan”. 26 killed 16 June by car bomb in Khyber district. Suspected Sunni militants 27 June killed 15 Shiite bus passengers, SW. Military 26 June said Afghanistan militants crossed border, killed 13 Pakistan troops in NW. 7 soldiers killed 27 June by roadside bomb, NW. U.S. drone strikes continued throughout month.


2 remaining Filipino vessels 15 June departed Scarborough Shoal due to bad weather; China 17 June responded by also withdrawing boats; govt spokesman 27 June claimed Chinese fishing boats sighted in disputed South China Sea shoal in violation of earlier pullout agreement. 2 major Basilan political clans 5 June agreed to end fighting. Military official 17 June warned foreigners of kidnappings in south following suspected Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) abductions of 2 Chinese businessmen in Kabasalan township 4 June, 12 June abduction of Jordanian journalist, 4 others in Sulu. Suspected ASG attack on bus 8 June killed 4 in Jolo; landmine blast 15 June killed 1 army officer, wounded 3 soldiers in Compostela Valley. Govt, New People’s Army (NPA) talks in Oslo 14-15 June failed to break impasse; 13 NPA fighters killed 1 July in San Narcisco, Botolan clashes, army 9-10 June captured major NPA camp in N Samar following 3 days of clashes; 2 soldiers killed 13 June in NPA ambush in Luzon; NPA attack 21 June killed 1 soldier, 1 civilian in Davao del Sur.

Sri Lanka

2 killed, 4 injured in 15 June gunmen attack on JVP party meeting in Hambantota; JVP leaders blamed govt for attack; politically-connected underworld gang-leader identified as chief suspect surrendered to police; attack denounced by UNP and civil society as evidence of institutionalised impunity for rights violations and collapse of law and order. Security forces blocked, disrupted protests by Tamils displaced by military land seizures in North. President Rajapaksa’s planned 6 June speech to Commonwealth Economic Forum, London, cancelled due to security concerns following demonstrations. Ex-army commander Sarath Fonseka 14 June reiterated plan to run in next election. Indian National Security Advisor Shiv Shankar Menon 29 June met President Rajapaksa, Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa, urged serious efforts to renew negotiations with TNA, improve conditions in North. Police 29 June raided web newspaper offices, arrested 9 journalists.


Activists 1 June blockaded parliament in ongoing protest over reconciliation Bills; debate over legislation later suspended. In widely criticised decision, Constitutional Court 1 June accepted petition to review constitutional amendments, petition claimed amendments did not sufficiently safeguard role of monarchy; Parliament acceded to Court injunction. Govt 19 June extended emergency law in southern provinces for further 3 months as violence continued; gunmen 6 June killed 2 defence volunteers, wounded 6 in Narathiwat; IED 7 June wounded 1 soldier in Yala; insurgents 10 June attacked police checkpoint in Pattani wounding 2 police, 4 civilians; IED attack 13 June wounded 2 Rangers, 2 defence volunteers in Chanae District; 3 soldiers killed, 6 wounded 16 June in suspected Muslim separatist attack in Yala; 2 govt officials 19 June shot dead in Narathiwat; 1 soldier, 1 villager wounded 21 June in Narathiwat bombing.

Europe & Central Asia


Month saw escalating clashes with Azerbaijan. Increasing tensions between ruling Republican Party of Armenia (HHK) and former coalition partner Prosperous Armenia (BHK) ahead of 2013 presidential elections; Armenian National Congress (HAK) leader Ter-Petrosyan voiced support for BHK during 26 June rally held in Yerevan. Money laundering case launched by authorities against Civilitas NGO run by former FM and BHK MP Vartan Oskanyan. President Sargsyan 16 June announced new cabinet.

Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict

Armenia 4 June accused Azerbaijan of cross-border incursion into Armenian Tavush region killing 3 Armenian soldiers; Azerbaijan denied involvement. Azerbaijan reported 5 Azeri soldiers killed 5 June during clashes with “Armenian saboteurs” infiltrating Azerbaijan’s Qazah district, 2 officers severely wounded 11 June in mine blast along Line of Contact, border positions shelled same day, 1 soldier killed 19 June by separatist Nagorno-Karabakh forces. Authorities 6 June said 1 soldier killed repelling Azeri incursion, 18 June claimed 1,000 ceasefire violations by Azerbaijan in 1-week. During regional tour, U.S. Secretary of State Clinton 4 June warned tensions could escalate into broader conflict. OSCE chairman Eamon Gilmore 12 June urged restraint, said parties should not attempt to resolve dispute by force; U.S., France, Russia 19 June issued joint statement calling on Armenia, Azerbaijan to take “decisive steps” to resolve conflict.


Month saw escalating clashes with Armenia. Tensions with Turkmenistan increased over Kapaz/Serdar oil field in Caspian Sea (see Turkmenistan). Police 12 June broke up opposition rally in Baku against legal amendments limiting access to information on govt financial and economic activities, arrested Republican Alternative (REAL) alliance co-chairman Ilgar Mammadov, activists. Parliament same day granted President Aliyev, wife immunity from criminal prosecution for acts committed in office. Pro-democracy blogger detained 13-14 June in Baku, charged with assaulting police during May opposition rally. President Aliyev 22 June pardoned 66 prisoners, including opposition Musavat party head Arif Hajili and 8 rights activists detained after participating in April 2011 opposition rallies.


President Lukashenko 12 June amnestied 2,600 prisoners to mark 3 July Independence Day; EU demanded 9 political prisoners be included in release. Senior EEAS official 18 June said travel ban could be expanded if repression continued. Police 21 June detained Polish journalist Andrzej Poczobut for slandering President Lukashenko.

Bosnia And Herzegovina

FBiH govt in limbo as 6 party-coalition collapsed 6 June over Bosniak Party for Democratic Action (SDA), Social Democratic Party (SPD) disagreement on budget; SDA refused to withdraw cabinet ministers at state level; SDP seeking to form govt with Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), HDZ 1990 splinter party, Alliance for a Better Future (SBB). EU FMs 25 June expressed concern over impact of political instability on accession process. ICTY 28 June cleared ex-Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic of 1 of 2 genocide charges, citing insufficient evidence. Bosnian court 15 June sentenced 4 Bosnian Serb ex-soldiers to record prison sentences for part in Srebrenica massacre; police 21 June detained 2 ex-military commanders in connection with 1995 massacres.


President Christofias 4 June insisted Cyprus’ EU presidency would be exercised with neutrality, declared desire to continue reunification talks with Turkish Cypriots; UNSG Special Adviser Downer 22 June said no new meetings planned between 2 leaders; EU Enlargement Commissioner Füle 21 June warned against ending talks, said “no plan B” to reunification; Turkish Cypriot leader Eroğlu expressed preference for confidence-building measures “instead of negotiating for nothing” during Cypriot EU Presidency.


President Saakashvili 30 June named Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili new PM. Opposition denounced seizure of some 300,000 satellite dishes during late-month police raids as attack against freedom of speech; authorities said action part of investigation into vote-buying by opposition Georgian Dream coalition. Court 11 June fined Georgian Dream leader Bidzina Ivanishvi $90 million for violating electoral, political funding laws; fine later reduced to $45.4 million; Ivanishvi called decision absurd, refused to pay; court 29 June rejected appeal by Ivanishvi to restore Georgian citizenship. U.S. Secretary of State Clinton 5-6 June met President Saakashvili, pledged support for Georgian coastal defence, urged consolidation of democratic gains, said U.S. to recognise Abkhaz, South Ossetian “status neutral” passports issued by govt. Abkhaz FM 25 June said Georgia “terrorising” inhabitants in Gali district, urged U.S., UN, OSCE to pressure Georgia.


President Nazarbyev 1 June called murder of 14 border guards, forest ranger on Chinese border “terrorist act”; surviving guard reportedly confessed guilt, said killings reaction to mistreatment; border guard head General Myrzaliev 13 June resigned over incident. Court 4 June jailed 13 over Dec 2011 Janaozen violence; authorities 15 June arrested dissident theatre director Bolat Atabaev, leading youth activist Zhanbolat Mamay for “inciting social hatred” during Janaozen riots. Police 24 June reported killing 2 suspects in Aqtobe wanted over killing of police officer. Military participated in 9-14 June joint-SCO drills (see Tajikistan), 18- 29 June exercise with U.S. forces (see Kyrgyzstan).


Clashes 28 June after Kosovo Albanians attacked Serbs visiting Gazimestan historical site. 2 NATO soldiers, 4 Kosovo Serb protesters injured 1 June in firefight over removal of barricades in N Kosovo. 2 grenades thrown 19 June at KFOR Brjnak crossing barracks in N Kosovo. KFOR 22 June bolstered security in preparation for opening of Kosovo govt office in Serb neighbourhood of Mitrovica. Kosovo nationalist activists 21 June pelted convoy of EU envoy Robert Cooper during protest against “paternalistic” approach of EU. Same day parliament amended legislation to pave way for closure of International Civilian Office. Deputy PM Kuçi 22 June resigned in protest against passage of penal code EU says undermines press freedom. EU 5 June announced extension of EULEX mandate until 2014 at reduced manpower.


2-year anniversary of ethnic violence in south passed peacefully despite continuing tensions between local Uzbeks, Kyrgyz. Parliament 12 June approved draft bill giving Osh increased autonomy. Controversial corruption charges brought against opposition MP and ex-mayor of Bishkek Nariman Tyuleev 25 June. 20-22 June detention of 3 Kyrgyz for allegedly smuggling over 90kg of mercury sparked unrest in Batken: at least 16 Tajik citizens taken hostage 21 June by Kyrgyz protesters, later freed by authorities; some 150-200 demonstrated 22 June, urged local authorities to secure release of 3 Kyrgyz, clashed with police, 8 Tajiks taken hostage, later freed by authorities; 15 detained in connection with unrest. Military 9-14 June participated in joint-SCO drills (see Tajikistan),18-29 June hosted combined military exercise with Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and U.S..


PM Filat, Transdneister leader Shevchuk 21 June met under OSCE auspices in Germany; OSCE hailed rising trust between parties.

North Macedonia

Ethnic Albanian opposition party Democratic Union for Integration leader Ali Ahmeti 13 June called for solution to name dispute after elections in Greece, Macedonia, U.S.. Opposition Democratic Party of Albanians 22 June claimed coalition deal with ethnic Macedonian opposition parties SDSM and VMRO-NP close. Govt 13 June revoked license of critical A2 TV channel.

Russia (Internal)

Chechen authorities 15 June claimed assassination bid against President Kadyrov averted following killing of 2 militants. At least 23 killed in Dagestan, including 5 civilians: security forces 8 June killed 6 militants in Yuzhno-Sukhokumsk; Izberbash militant leader Magomed Abdusalamov killed 28 June in Tabasaran; several killed during counter-terrorism operation in Tsumadinsky, including policeman, 2 militants. In Ingushetia: 2 suspected militants killed by police in Sunzha district; 2 suspected militants killed 27 June in Ordzhonikidzevskaya. In Kabardino-Balkaria (KBR): interior ministry 8 June announced numerous high- ranking officials arrested on corruption charges; KBR insurgent leader Timur Tatchaev killed 25 June in Nalchik; 2 militants, several security officials wounded during 9 June clashes in Baksan. Authorities in Karachayevo-Cherkessia 13 June said militant leader Umar Baichorov killed in Malokarachaevsky.


Socialist leader Dačić 28 June received mandate to form govt, coalition expected with Progressives and United Regions of Serbia. Senior EU diplomat 20 June said de facto Kosovo embassy in Belgrade precondition for EU membership. President Nikolić 2 June denied Srebrenica massacre constituted genocide prompting boycott of presidential inauguration by leaders of other Balkan nations. President Nikolić 15 June asserted he would not oppose normalisation of relations with Kosovo, but would never recognise it as country; Serbia 20 June announced upgrade of next round of dialogue with Priština, with President or PM negotiating directly. Prosecution Office 22 June announced criminal proceedings against 13 prominent figures suspected of helping ICTY war crimes suspects Ratko Mladić, Stojan Župljann evade capture. War crimes court 27 June sentenced 14 ex-soldiers to 4-20 years prison for killing Croatian villagers in 1991.


Police 14 June announced President Rahmon’s brother-in-law shot dead in Dushanbe. Military 9-14 June hosted Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) military exercises focusing on counter-terrorism, 18-29 June participated in drills with U.S. forces (see Kyrgyzstan). Authorities 20-22 June detained 3 Kyrgyz from Batken for allegedly smuggling mercury (see Kyrgyzstan). Dushanbe court 26 June jailed 12 alleged Hizb ut-Tahrir members.


Authorities 19 June accused Azerbaijan of “provocations” by coast guard over disputed Kapaz/Serdar oil field in Caspian Sea, warned against attempts to explore zone.


Turkish govt 22 June said fighter jet shot down by Syria in international airspace, 2 pilots missing; following 26 June article IV NATO consultations PM Erdoğan instructed Turkish army to treat Syrian military units approaching border as threat. 8 Turkish soldiers killed 19 June in PKK assault on govt post in Hakkari province, 31 PKK insurgents killed in retaliatory clashes, including 22-24 June airstrikes on PKK bases in N Iraq. 3 soldiers killed 24-26 June in clashes in Mardin, Hakkari provinces. 2 teachers released 25 June following 21 June PKK raid on convoy in Bitlis, 1 soldier still held. Over 140 detained during Turkish police operations against Kurdish Communities Union, including politicians, local pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) officials. BDP 19 June urged both PKK and state to cease hostilities. Kurdish Deputy Aysel Tuğluk 12 June found guilty of engaging in crimes, propaganda on behalf of PKK.