CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

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CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month January 1970

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month апреля 2018

Improved Situations

Conflict in Focus

April saw the conflict in Yemen intensify, with both the Saudi-led coalition and Huthi forces increasing attacks – fuelling risks of further escalation in May. At the Gaza-Israel border, Israeli forces continued to push back Palestinian protesters with deadly force; with larger protests expected in May, casualties could rise. Eastern Libya's strongman fell ill, prompting fears of further political and military splits. In Afghanistan, the Taliban stepped up attacks, while Kashmir saw deadly clashes and protests. Dozens were killed amid anti-government protests in Nicaragua. In Nigeria, rising violence – especially between herders and farmers – left nearly 500 dead. Burundi could see more political violence around its 17 May constitutional referendum, and a flare-up in attacks by armed groups in the Central African Republic could provoke worse bloodshed in coming weeks. The United Arab Emirates’ withdrawal from Somalia led to clashes between army factions there. On a positive note, Ethiopia’s new prime minister took steps to mitigate ethnic tensions. In North East Asia, tensions escalated across the Taiwan Strait, while China-Japan relations continued to improve, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Moon pledged to seek “complete denuclearisation” of the peninsula.

CrisisWatch Digests

Robert Malley
President & CEO

Yemen’s war saw an uptick in violence: the Saudi-led coalition intensified its airstrike campaign, killing at least 66 civilians, and in turn Huthi forces increased missile attacks on Saudi targets. The escalation – which could continue in May – risks derailing efforts to restart peace talks, further regionalising the conflict and aggravating the already dire humanitarian crisis. To curb this worrying trend, diplomatic efforts should be aimed at preventing a coalition attack on Huthi-held Hodeida, a strategic port city on the Red Sea coast.

As we warned, violence increased at the Gaza-Israel border, where Israeli forces suppressed weekly Palestinian protests with deadly force, raising the total number of Palestinians killed since the protests began on 30 March to at least 42. May could be worse, as the largest protests are expected on 15 May when Palestinians mourn the expulsion of 750,000 Palestinians from Israel during the 1948 war, a day after the U.S. plans to open its embassy in Jerusalem. In Libya, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s two-week stay in a Paris hospital prompted fears that the search for a successor will fragment his military coalition in the east and see the political camps in the east or west use force to break the current stalemate.

In Afghanistan, the Taliban stepped up its efforts to capture district centres and move closer to the provincial capitals of Ghazni and Sar-e Pul as it announced the start of its spring offensive. Islamic State-Khorasan Province also continued to attack urban centres across the country, including an attack on a voter registration centre in Kabul on 22 April killing around 60 people, amid growing fears over security around elections later this year. Clashes between alleged separatist militants and security forces south of Kashmir’s Srinagar on 1 April left thirteen alleged militants and three Indian soldiers dead. At least three civilians were killed later the same day as police fired on stone-throwing demonstrators protesting the killings.

In Bangui, capital of the Central African Republic, two attempts by the army and UN peacekeepers to arrest the leader of one of the city’s armed groups failed and left 32 dead, including one peacekeeper. After armed men attacked a church on 1 May killing fifteen worshippers and a priest, many fear intercommunal violence could again flare in the city and trigger more fighting in the provinces. In Nigeria, Boko Haram kept up attacks, while herder-farmer violence and deadly banditry continued to spiral, leaving some 500 dead.

Political violence could rise around Burundi’s 17 May referendum on constitutional changes, which if adopted would allow President Nkurunziza to run in presidential elections until 2034. The regime, including the ruling party’s youth wing, the Imbonerakure, have been carrying out a campaign of intimidation against anyone who has opposed the referendum, or campaigned for a No vote.

A breakdown in relations between Somalia’s federal government and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), partly driven by the UAE’s deepening cooperation with Somaliland and Puntland regions, over which the federal government claims sovereignty, led to the UAE ending its military training program. After the Emiratis pulled out, rival Somali army factions clashed at the training centre over weapons. Good news from neighbouring Ethiopia, however, as the new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took steps to calm tensions between ethnic Somalis and Oromos and relax restrictions on civil liberties.

Dozens of people were reported killed in Nicaragua as mass anti-government protests clashed with security forces. Sparked by social security reforms, the protests vented a deeper fury with President Ortega’s authoritarian rule.

In North East Asia, China held its first ever live-fire exercises in the Taiwan Strait, intended as a warning against Taiwanese who advocate independence. There were further signs of improving China-Japan relations ahead of a planned visit to Japan by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang for a trilateral summit in May. And the month saw an historic summit between the leaders of North and South Korea who pledged to seek “complete denuclearisation” of the peninsula. As we note in our commentary, this could lead to transformative shifts in inter-Korean relations, and sets the stage for upcoming multilateral dialogue, making the meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Trump more likely.

Latest Updates

Africa

Angola

President Lourenco 23 April sacked head of armed forces and foreign intelligence service, continuing purge of officials accused of alleged corruption and connected to former President dos Santos.

Burkina Faso

Insecurity persisted in Soum province, Sahel region in north: gunmen 8 April killed Koutougou’s mayor; explosive device next day injured seven soldiers in same area; gunmen 12 April killed student and abducted teacher in school in Bouro, Nassoumbou district; Islamic State in the Greater Sahara 17 April claimed 8 and 12 April attacks; suspected Islamist militants 24 April killed three in Niafo village. Trial of 84 people accused of masterminding 2015 attempted coup suspended multiple times, set to resume 9 May.

Burundi

Political violence could rise around 17 May referendum on constitutional changes that would allow President Nkurunziza to run in presidential elections until 2034. Opposition coalition in exile late March reiterated call for boycott. Three opposition parties in country, FNL, FRODEBU and UPRONA, 17 April released memorandum addressed to UN Sec-Gen Guterres, African Union (AU) Chair and Rwandan President Kagame, and AU Commission Chair Faki, urging them to stop revision of constitution. Catholic Church for first time 10 April criticised govt for forcing citizens to contribute toward funding vote. AU and UN 16 April criticised govt’s repeated rejection of proposed dialogue with opposition and its suspension from talks. Next day govt said it would not withdraw from talks. 2,500 followers of spiritual leader “Zebyia” returned early April from Rwanda to Burundi following disputes with Rwandan authorities about registration there.

Cameroon

Boko Haram (BH) slightly increased operations in Far North against military and civilians, and Anglophone separatists kept up insurgent attacks against security forces and officials, especially in Southwest region. BH attacks in Logone-et-Chari department bordering Lake Chad picked up after ten-month lull there: fighters injured soldier in Amatalia 2 April; over 50 BH fighters thought to belong to al-Barnawi’s faction 3 April launched large attack on military base in Sagme, killing six soldiers, fifteen assailants also killed; fighters kidnapped driver between Sale and Zigague 9 April; killed two fishermen in Ngame 17 April. Soldiers and local vigilantes of Zigague 18 April attacked BH cell in Dougouma across border in Nigeria, killing four fighters. In neighbouring Mayo Sava department to south, BH fighters killed one civilian in Limani 2 April, killed two more in Allargno 9 April and armed forces killed two BH fighters in Cherif-Moussari 25 April. Anglophone separatists conducted attack in Belo village, Northwest region 5-6 April killing one gendarme; killed one soldier in Ediki, Southwest 13 April and same day injured three more in Meme, Southwest; clashed with security forces in Dadi, Southwest 16 April; separatists killed three security forces and bomb killed two others in Lebialem department, Southwest 21-22 April. Separatists 20 April attacked convoy of Southwest governor in Lebialem. Separatists 28 April killed two gendarmes in Bali-Nyongha, Northwest. Priest kidnapped in Belo 30 April. Several new separatist militias formed in April and separatists killed at least three civilians accused of being informants for security forces. Security forces reportedly continued to set ablaze civilian houses in areas thought to be sympathetic to separatists such as Lebialem. Constitutional Council 5 April announced results of 25 March senatorial elections: ruling party CPDM won 63 of 70 seats; as per constitution President Biya appointed senators to remaining 30 seats, giving CPDM 87 of 100 seats in senate.

Central African Republic

Clashes between armed groups and international and national forces increased, including in capital Bangui, which could provoke further violence in May. UN mission (MINUSCA) patrol 1 April exchanged fire with armed group in PK5 neighbourhood in Bangui. Two joint MINUSCA and army operations to arrest or dislodge head of main local militia in PK5, known as “General Force”, failed 8 and 10 April, 32 people including one peacekeeper killed and 145 wounded; MINUSCA began negotiations with group close to General Force. Ex-Seleka factions assembled in Kaga Bandoro in north late April raising fears of attack on Bangui, MINUSCA deployed to Sibut in centre and govt sent Russian soldiers to talk with rebels 28 April. In centre, anti-balaka militants attacked temporary MINUSCA base at Tagbara near Bambari 2 April killing one peacekeeper, at least 22 anti-balaka also killed. In south east, Ugandan-led militia Lord’s Resistance Army attacked Koubou village near Obo 2 April, MINUSCA and national troops responded, freeing some fifteen abducted civilians. In west, MINUSCA clashed with recently created armed group known as Siriri between Berberati and Gamboula 22 April, unknown number of militants killed. Côte d’Ivoire 24 April said it would send 450 peacekeepers to Central African Republic without specifying date.

Chad

Following recommendations of late March Forum on Institutional Reform, Ministers’ Council approved draft of new constitution 10 April and passed it on to parliament; new version, among other changes, abolishes PM position, makes president head of govt, and reintroduces presidential term limits which President Déby removed in 2005. Opposition MPs 16 April decided to boycott parliamentary sessions up to and including 30 April, when parliament under heavy security voted overwhelmingly in favour of draft. Opposition and civil society had called for protests against new constitution, some opposition leaders and demonstrators arrested during demonstrations outside parliament. Catholic Church 19 April called on govt to hold referendum on draft constitution. Three soldiers killed in clash with Boko Haram militants in Arge across border in Nigeria 15 April. U.S. 13 April lifted travel restrictions on Chadians, imposed Sept 2017, citing govt’s improvement in identity management and information sharing.

Côte d’Ivoire

Ahead of 2020 presidential elections, President Alassane Ouattara and Henri Konan Bedié, leaders of two main parties in ruling coalition Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace, 10 April affirmed their commitment to coalition and urged members of both parties to show restraint. Representatives of six parties forming ruling coalition 16 April signed agreement in principle to become one. Union pour la Côte d’Ivoire senior officials 28 April rejected text. Seventeen opposition supporters, arrested in Abidjan 22 March during protest against govt’s majority in electoral commission, released from prison 6 April, but spokesman of opposition platform Together for Democracy and Sovereignty, Jean-Gervais Tchéidé, remained in custody because of alleged 2013 arrest warrant. Gunmen 6 April attacked army checkpoint on Bangolo-Kouibly axis in west, one assailant killed.

Democratic Republic of Congo

As preparations for elections in Dec continued, opposition contested electoral commission (CENI)’s plan to use voting machines. Comité Laïc de Coordination (lay organisation of Catholic Church) 8 April asked CENI not to use them to avoid undermining vote’s credibility; five opposition parties jointly contested numbers of voters in register and demanded external audit. Together for Change, platform of opposition leader Moïse Katumbi, held its first meeting in Lubumbashi 7 April. Attorney general late March opened investigation into allegations Katumbi held Italian citizenship while governor of Katanga province, another attempt to prevent him from running in election. President Kabila 16 April rejected international role in elections. Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) 24 April organised first major opposition rally in capital Kinshasa. Govt agreed with UDPS and Tshisekedi family 21 April on arrangements for repatriation from Belgium of body of former party leader Etienne Tshisekedi who died Feb 2017 and funeral, without specifying date. Violence continued across country, especially in east in North and South Kivu and Ituri provinces. In North Kivu, Allied Democratic Forces 17 April attacked Ngite village, looting houses, before army routed them. Unidentified assailants carried out attack in Mungunga neighbourhood of Goma, North Kivu 30 April killing at least seven people. In north west, fighting began in South Ubangi province 23 April between ethnic Enyele militia and security forces, at least 47 civilians drowned in river fleeing violence. Donors pledged $528mn for humanitarian relief 13 April, conference in Geneva had aimed to raise $1.68bn.

Ethiopia

New PM Abiy Ahmed took several measures to mitigate ethnic tensions, promote national unity and relax restrictions on civil liberties. Head of ethnic Oromo party, Abiy Ahmed, elected chairman of ruling coalition Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front late March, sworn in as prime minister 2 April. In his first trip, Abiy 7 April went to Jijiga, capital of Somali regional state, in bid to ease tensions between ethnic Somalis and Oromos. Govt 6 April said it had closed Maekelawi prison, alleged torture site, and same day internet service reportedly resumed in parts of Oromia regional state; internet access restored in other areas 16 April. Abiy 19 April appointed ten new ministers including defence minister. Lawyer representing opposition figures, arrested 25 March for reportedly displaying banned version of national flag, said 5 April they had been released. Arrests under state of emergency imposed mid-Feb continued, particularly in Oromia. Small-scale protests reported in Ambo, Oromia regional state and parts of Somali regional state late April. Lower parliament citing security concerns 12 April postponed local elections for a year and 30 April postponed population census. Grenade attack by unidentified assailants 17 April killed four people in Moyale town, Oromia, close to border with Kenya. Talks between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia over latter’s building of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Nile 4-5 April ended without agreement on any issues; Egypt 19 April said Ethiopia and Sudan had not responded to its invitation to resume talks in Cairo. U.S. Congress 10 April passed resolution condemning rights abuses by Ethiopian security forces; govt 11 April said resolution was harmful to U.S.-Ethiopia relations.

Gabon

Constitutional Court 30 April ordered PM Issoze-Ngondet to resign and National Assembly to be dissolved on grounds that both no longer legitimate as govt failed to hold legislative elections before month’s end. PM and National Assembly president accepted ruling same day.

Gambia

Ruling United Democratic Party (UDP) of President Barrow won local elections 12 April with 62 of 120 constituencies. Voter turnout was low at 34%. Police used tear gas to disperse supporters of UDP and former President Jammeh’s Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction who were throwing stones at each other on election day in Banjul, with both sides celebrating victory in neighbouring districts.

Guinea

Leader of main opposition party Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) Cellou Dalein Diallo 2 April met President Condé over contested results of 4 Feb local elections, temporarily suspended protests. Diallo 21 April said protests would resume if govt did not meet opposition’s demands by end of April. Court in Conakry 9 April sentenced UFDG member Ibrahima Sory Camara to eighteen months in prison for insult and libel against president.

Guinea-Bissau

President Vaz 16 April named Aristides Gomes as new consensus PM in compliance with Oct 2016 Conakry agreement in bid to end political stalemate; Gomes formed new govt 25 April. Parliament 19 April held first session in two years, extended its own mandate, due to expire 23 April, until legislative elections scheduled for 18 Nov.

Kenya

Political negotiations and reconciliation talks between govt and opposition continued following meeting between President Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga in March; two leaders 29 April named fourteen-member team to drive talks. Deputy President Ruto 14 April criticised proposals to amend constitution to create more executive positions to accommodate opposition, describing them as attempt by politicians to secure more top jobs. Standoff between executive and judiciary continued; interior minister 3 April accused judiciary of anti-govt bias and “judicial overreach”; Chief Justice David Maraga 14 April said judiciary was struggling to fulfil its mandate due to budget cuts. Electoral commission 10 April said it had sent its chief executive on compulsory leave for three months pending audit; three of body’s six commissioners resigned 16 April, citing “dysfunctional” management, while maintaining disputed Aug presidential vote was conducted properly.

Liberia

President Weah 17 April formed five-member Special Presidential Committee and gave it two weeks to submit initial report and make recommendations following NGO Global Witness’s allegations late March of corruption involving govt officials, national oil company NOCAL and U.S. oil company ExxonMobil.

Madagascar

Opposition supporters 21-24 April protested in capital Antananarivo against new electoral laws they claim are designed to prevent opposition candidate and former Presidents Ravalomanana and Rajoelina from running in late-2018 presidential elections; two protesters died in confrontations with police. Opposition activists 24 April called on President Rajaonarimampianina to resign.

Mali

Despite 28 March signing of new roadmap to implement 2015 peace agreement by govt, ex-rebel Coalition of Azawad Movements (CMA) and pro-national unity Platform coalition, at 11 April UN Security Council meeting with France, UK and U.S. advised council to impose sanctions on spoilers. Attacks continued to target govt forces (FAMA), international forces and civilians, as counter-insurgency operations continued in north, north east and centre. In north, gunmen 2 April killed FAMA soldier in Timbuktu city. Unidentified assailants 5 April fired shells at UN mission (MINUSMA) camp in Kidal region, killing two peacekeepers. Assailants disguised as UN peacekeepers 14 April attacked MINUSMA and French Barkhane camp in Timbuktu city, killing one peacekeeper, fifteen assailants reportedly killed; jihadist alliance Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (GSIM) claimed responsibility. Barkhane had reportedly recently killed alleged weapons expert and trainer for jihadist groups in Timbuktu region, and four other alleged jihadists. French forces said they had killed three alleged jihadists 21 April in confrontation near Goudam village, west of Timbuktu. In north east, joint operations of Barkhane, Platform coalition member Self-Defence Group of Imrad Tuareg and Allies (GATIA) and CMA splinter group Movement for the Salvation of Azawad (MSA) 1 April neutralised 60 alleged GSIM militants in Akabar area, Ménaka region. Assailants same day ambushed MSA-GATIA unit near Akabar, killing at least three members. MSA-GATIA and FAMA, backed by Barkhane, 6 April clashed with alleged jihadists in same area, two GATIA and unknown number of assailants killed. MSA-GATIA unit 10 April killed three suspected jihadists near Niger border. MSA 15 April said gunmen on motorbikes had killed one of its officers in Ménaka region. Suspected Islamic State in the Greater Sahara militants 26-27 April attacked villages of Awakassa and Anderanboucane, Ménaka region, killing at least 40 Tuaregs. In centre, gunmen 2 April attacked checkpoint in Ségou region, killing gendarme. Army 20 April killed fifteen suspected jihadists in Tina forest, Mopti region. Army 6 April killed fourteen suspected jihadists in Dioura, Mopti region; army said they had tried to escape, while local sources accused army of summary executions.

Mozambique

In north, suspected Islamist militants 21-22 April attacked two villages near Mocimboa da Praia and Palma respectively killing one civilian. Disagreement between ruling Frelimo and armed opposition Renamo over who should appoint district administrators blocked parliamentary discussion of constitutional changes aimed at decentralisation and consolidating peace agreement.

Niger

Security forces 15 April clashed with protesters demonstrating against fiscal measures in 2018 budget in capital Niamey and arrested three civil society leaders. Students demanding reinstatement of five classmates expelled mid-March clashed with security forces 18 April at University of Niamey, several students injured. In west, unidentified gunmen 11 April kidnapped German humanitarian worker 30km from Ayorou in Tillaberi region near Mali border. President Issoufou 1 April said govt will not engage in talks with Boko Haram for release of 39 women abducted in Diffa region in July 2017. FM Ibrahim Yacouba asked to resign 11 April, reportedly for opposition to electoral reforms he deemed non-transparent.

Nigeria

Security forces continued to clash with Boko Haram (BH) militants in Borno state in north east, as herder-farmer violence and rural banditry spiralled, with about 500 killed overall. Army 1 April repelled BH attacks on base and two villages near Borno state capital Maiduguri, thirteen insurgents, thirteen villagers and one soldier killed. Army 7 April killed three insurgents and freed 149 captives at BH hideout in Yerimari Kura. Army 8 April hit BH at Arege and Tumbun Rago. Army 13 April killed seven BH fleeing Sambisa forest. Cameroonian soldiers and local vigilantes of Zigague in Cameroon 18 April attacked BH cell in Dougouma in Nigeria, killing four fighters. Army 20 April repelled BH insurgents in Gamboru Ngala area, killing one. BH 22 April shot dead eighteen forest workers near Gamboru; vehicle same day hit mine planted by BH near Wumbi village, three civilians killed. BH 26 April attacked Jidari Polo area of Maiduguri, repelled by army, nine people including five suicide bombers killed. Herder-farmer violence and related attacks on sedentary farming communities continued in five states; over twenty incidents reported with over 350 people killed, mostly in Benue and Nasarawa states, including 24 April killing of at least eighteen people, including two Catholic priests, at church in Mbalom village, Benue state, which drew Christian protests. Federal parliament 25 April called on govt to sack military and intelligence chiefs for incompetence. Rural banditry continued, especially in Zamfara and Kaduna states. In Zamfara state, army 4 April killed 21 suspected bandits in Tunga Daji village, two soldiers killed; suspected bandits 11 April stormed Kuru-Kuru and Jarkuka villages, killing 26; suspected cattle thieves 19 April attacked Kabaro and Danmami villages, killing at least 27. Suspected bandits 5 April attacked Sarari village, Kaduna state, killing at least five. In federal capital Abuja, police 16-17 April forcibly dispersed Shiite Islamic Movement in Nigeria (IMN) rallies demanding release of its leader Ibrahim El-Zakzaky, one IMN member reportedly killed. Kaduna state govt 18 April filed more charges against El-Zakzaky.

Sierra Leone

Opposition Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) candidate Julius Maada Bio won 31 March presidential run-off with 51.81% of vote and was sworn in as president 4 April. Samura Kamara, losing candidate of ruling All People’s Congress (APC), 4 April said vote was marred by fraud and vowed to appeal result. Police 5 April clashed with youths in Kenema district in east after fighting broke out between APC and SLPP supporters. High Court 23-25 April placed injunctions on sixteen elected APC MPs, following claims by SLPP that they had illegally received govt salaries throughout election campaigns. Police 25 April forcibly removed them from parliament’s opening session. President Bio late April sacked all country’s ambassadors.

Somalia

Following further deterioration of relations between federal govt and United Arab Emirates (UAE) over increased Emirati cooperation with  Somaliland and Puntland regions, UAE ended military training program triggering clashes between army factions over weapons at training centre. Federal govt 8 April seized almost $10mn in cash from Emirati plane at Mogadishu airport, which UAE said was to pay Somali soldiers it had been training. Federal govt 11 April ended UAE military training program and 16 April prevented plane leaving Puntland after departing Emirati military instructors refused to allow authorities to search their bags. UAE criticised govt’s actions and 16 April closed Sheikh Zayed Hospital in Mogadishu which it had been running. Members of Somali armed forces 23 April attacked military training centre in Mogadishu that UAE handed back to govt, reportedly intending to loot it, exchanging fire with UAE-trained forces until presidential palace guards retook control; some UAE-trained forces ran away with weapons. Puntland 16 April urged UAE to stay and continue support for Somalia. PM Khayre continued efforts to remove speaker of federal parliament’s lower house, Mohamed Osman Jawaari, triggering armed standoff. On Khayre’s orders, security forces 4 April closed major roads in Mogadishu and tried to prevent MPs accessing parliament building; Jawaari went to parliament with his own armed guards who confronted forces loyal to Khayre; parliamentary session concluded with neither side making any concession. African Union mission in Somalia (AMISOM) stepped in to mediate. Following talks, Jawaari 9 April resigned and parliament 30 April elected former defence minister as new speaker. Al-Shabaab militants 1 April attacked AMISOM base in Bula Marer, Lower Shabelle region, four AMISOM soldiers and some 30 militants killed. Al-Shabaab suicide bombing at football stadium in Barawe, Lower Shabelle, killed five people 12 April. Suicide bomber 28 April attacked army camp in Galkayo in Puntland, reportedly killing four officers.

Somaliland

Authorities 15 April sentenced writer Nacima Qorane to three years in prison for allegedly supporting unification with Somalia, triggering widespread criticism of govt.

South Africa

Protests calling for resignation of premier of North West province, Supra Mahumapelo, accused of corruption and failing to deliver services, erupted in provincial capital Mahikeng 18 April and spread to several other towns; protesters burned tyres, looted and destroyed property, at least one person killed, over 100 arrested.

South Sudan

In late March, regional grouping Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) pledged to place sanctions on individuals violating Dec cessation of hostilities, but fighting continued in several areas; various groups including govt forces and main opposition group Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO) allegedly responsible. Former army Chief of Staff Paul Malong Awan 9 April announced creation of his new rebel group, South Sudan United Front, and sought entry to peace talks. IGAD postponed new round of peace talks, scheduled to restart 26 April to 17 May because parties remained uncompromising. Army chief Gen James Ajongo died 20 April; at his funeral 25 April, President Kiir said he regretted not killing group of political leaders he arrested in 2014 and former VP now rebel leader Riek Machar in 2016.

Sudan

President Bashir 10 April ordered release of remaining dozens of political prisoners detained during Jan-Feb economic protests. Bashir 19 April dismissed Foreign Minister Ibrahim Ghandour after he questioned non-payment of salaries to diplomats over six months. Talks between Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia over latter’s building of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Nile 4-5 April ended without agreement on any issues. Egypt 19 April said Ethiopia and Sudan had not responded to its invitation to resume talks in Cairo. Peace talks in Berlin 16-17 April between govt and two Darfuri rebel groups – Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) faction led by Minni Minnawi and Justice and Equality Movement – broke down after parties failed to agree framework for further talks. Sporadic clashes continued throughout April in Jebel Marra region of Darfur between govt forces and two rebel groups, SLM faction led by Abdel Wahid and SLM-Transitional Council.

Tanzania

Govt 25 April deployed armed police in major towns and authorities reportedly made arrests ahead of planned anti-govt protests called for following day by U.S.-based activist; no large demonstrations reported 26 April.

Togo

Opposition resumed protests 11-14 April after four-week break, again called for protests 25-28 April. Police fired tear gas to disperse demonstrations in capital Lomé and other cities, several protesters reportedly wounded.

Zambia

Ruling Patriotic Front (PF) 15 April accused opposition United Party for National Development supporters of attacking its own supporters in Monze district in south ahead of 24 April by-election, two PF supporters hospitalised.

Zimbabwe

Ahead of general elections in July, ruling party ZANU-PF primaries 29 April marred by intra-party violence and intimidation in capital Harare, Chiredzi in south east and Central, West and East Mashonaland provinces in north. Police 23 April said govt had created special courts to address political violence and EU 27 April said it would send delegation to monitor elections, first time in sixteen years. Divisions among opposition persisted: High Court 24 April dismissed petition by opposition party Movement for Democratic Change-Tsvangirai (MDC-T) seeking to stop expelled party members Thokozani Khupe and two others “unlawfully exploiting and abusing” MDC-T trademark.

Asia

Afghanistan

Month saw escalation of Taliban offensive attempting to capture district centres and move closer to provincial capitals, Ghazni and Sar-e Pul as it announced the start of its spring offensive; and increased insurgent attacks on civilians in urban areas. Dozens of Afghan army (ANSF) troops killed in clashes with Taliban, including in south, in provinces of Ghazni, Kandahar, Helmand and Zabul; in north, Badakhshan, Kunduz, Sar-e Pul, Takhar. U.S. watchdog for Afghanistan reconstruction 12 April reported Taliban controls, contests or claims to control 46.5% of all 407 districts – more than any time since 2001. With no formal response from Taliban to President Ghani’s 28 Feb “unconditional offer” for peace, Afghan and U.S. officials sought new ways to reinvigorate peace process, including greater role for Saudi Arabia in reconciliation and continuing pressure on Pakistan to encourage Taliban to negotiate; Pakistani PM Abassi 6 April visited Kabul to start “state-to-state” dialogue on peace process. Relations with Pakistan tense due to cross-border security incidents; Pakistani airstrikes and shelling reportedly hit areas bordering Dangam district, Kunar province 4 April in what Afghanistan called “violation of Afghan airspace” and “serious offence against national sovereignty and territorial integrity”, though no casualties; said ANSF would repel future attacks. At least one civilian, two ANSF soldiers and five Pakistani soldiers killed in clashes in Khost province 15 April. Voter registration for 20 Oct parliamentary and district elections started 14 April, amid mounting concerns over fraud and insecurity; Taliban and Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) attacked several centres across country, including Baghlan, Badghis, and Nangarhar and Kabul, where 57 people were killed 22 April by IS-KP; security officials said only around half of 7,355 polling stations safe for voting. IS-KP stepped up urban attacks, including twin attacks in Kabul 30 April killing 29, among them nine journalists. Significant civilian casualties during month, particularly in Kabul, Helmand and Kunduz; more than 50 civilians killed 2 April in Afghan airstrike which struck school in Dasht-e Archi, Kunduz province, prompting outrage on part of some Afghan politicians and religious leaders.

Bangladesh

Thousands of university students held nationwide protests blocking major roads and highways from 8 April, calling for reforms to civil service quota system that keeps 30% of public posts for descendants of those who fought in 1971 liberation war. In Dhaka, police used tear gas, batons and water cannons to disperse protests, injuring hundreds. Ruling Awami League (AL) deployed its student wing to counter demonstrations, further inflaming tensions. PM Sheikh Hasina 11 April promised to abolish all quotas. Demonstrations suspended 27 April after AL assurances of abolishing quota system. Comilla court 10 April rejected Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Chair Khaleda Zia’s bail petition in case involving 2015 deadly arson attack on bus during months-long violent confrontation between govt and opposition. Jail authorities 10 April denied BNP leaders permission to meet Zia in prison; BNP continued to express concern about her treatment in jail. Meeting with Indian Foreign Secretary Vijay Keshav Gokhale in Dhaka 9 April, PM Hasina urged India to pressure Myanmar to take back over one million Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh (see Myanmar). UN refugee agency 13 April signed memorandum of understanding with Bangladesh on voluntary returns of Rohingya refugees but said conditions in Myanmar were not yet conducive to safe, dignified and sustainable repatriation. Hasina asked visiting UN Security Council delegation 30 April to pressure Myanmar to take back refugees.

China (internal)

U.S. State Department official in Beijing 18 April said U.S. was “deeply concerned” about China’s reported detention of tens of thousands of ethnic Uighurs in political re-education centres, including relatives of several U.S. citizens working for Radio Free Asia, and was considering sanctions under 2016 Magnitsky Act which targets foreign individuals responsible for human rights abuses. Followed early April call by U.S. Congressional-Executive Commission on China for U.S. administration to take stronger line on China’s detentions and intensifying digital surveillance in Xinjiang. U.S. State Department’s annual human rights report 20 April said repression of Uighurs in Xinjiang worsened in 2017. Reports emerged late April that authorities in Xinjiang had detained prominent Uighur professor, Abdulqagir Jalaleddin, late Jan.

China/Japan

Further signs of improving relations between China and Japan ahead of planned early May bilateral visit by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to Japan and trilateral summit also involving South Korean President Moon. China’s state councillor and foreign minister travelled to Japan 13-15 April to attend fourth China-Japan High-level Economic Dialogue, first such visit in eight years. Japan 15 April confirmed that it would consider cooperating on Belt and Road Initiative projects on case-by-case basis. Japanese and Chinese militaries 17 April resumed personnel exchange program that was halted in 2012 after Japan nationalised disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands; leading delegation to Tokyo 17 April, Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Major General Ci Guowei reportedly said program a precious asset, should become driving force for promoting bilateral relations. China and Japan also held ninth round of High-level Consultations on Maritime Affairs 19-20 April, producing agreement for their maritime transportation departments to restart China-Japan Shipping Policy Forum. Chinese official media welcomed focus on trade and improving relations, although Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono stressed “there will be no genuine improvement in the Japan-China relations without stability in the East China Sea”. China’s PLA Air Force, which has continued to expand its areas of operation and exercises, conducted new exercises over East and South China Seas 23 March, 18 April and 26 April after flying through Miyako Strait between two southern Japanese islands. Japan 7 April activated 2,100-member Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade for first time since World War II. Japan’s Self-Defence Force 13 April reported 23% drop in intercepts by its fighter jets for 2017; intercepts included 500 jet scrambles in response to PLA Air Force, 390 for Russian planes.

India

34 suspected Maoists including at least seven women killed in 22 April clash with security forces in Kasansur area, Gadchiroli district, Maharashta state; sixteen bodies recovered immediately, at least eighteen found in nearby river in following days. Security forces 23 April killed six suspected Maoists in separate incident in Jimalgatta area, Gadchiroli. Police 3 April killed three suspected Maoist insurgents, one man and two women, in clash in Gadchiroli district, reportedly including top-ranking Maoist leader from Dandakaranya region, Chhattisgarh state. In Bijapur district, Bastar state, suspected Maoists 9 April targeted bus carrying 30 District Reserve Guard officers with IED, killing two officers; PM Modi was scheduled to visit district several days later. Senior Maoist leader surrendered to police in Samblapur, Odisha state 13 April; group of 60 Maoists surrendered in Narayanpur district, Chhattisgarh 26 April.

India-Pakistan (Kashmir)

At least twenty killed in clashes between alleged separatist militants and security forces south of Srinagar 1 April. Fatalities included thirteen suspected militants and three Indian soldiers; three civilians killed later same day when police fired on thousands of stone-throwing demonstrators protesting killings. Schools, colleges and businesses went on strike in protest; authorities imposed security restrictions and deployed additional troops and barricades, suspended cell phone and internet services, shutting down most of state. Four civilians killed in Khudwani village in Kulgam district 11 April when security forces fired on protesters throwing stones in attempt to stop operation against suspected militants. Gunfight in southern Tral area 24 April resulted in two soldiers and four suspected militants killed; Tral residents responded with protests. One civilian and two suspected rebels reported killed in clash between Indian troops and rebels in southern Kashmir 30 April. Tensions also increased over case of rape and murder of eight-year-old Muslim girl held captive in Jan in Hindu temple in Kathua district in south of Jammu and Kashmir, with brutality of crime sparking protests across India. Police filed charges 9 April against eight Muslim men; case assumed communal dimension amid suspicions girl was targeted because of her ethnicity and religion, while two ministers from ruling Bharatiya Janata party were forced to resign for joining Hindu nationalist-organised rally in support of the accused. Authorities 19 April closed several colleges and schools in state to thwart student protests demanding justice. Court resumed hearing case 28 April. Pakistan and India 30 March agreed to address complaints of harassment of diplomats in accordance with bilaterally agreed 1992 “code of conduct” on treatment of diplomatic and consular staff; came after Pakistan temporarily recalled its high commissioner to New Delhi for consultations following alleged spike in harassment of Pakistani diplomats and their families, and Indian complaints about treatment of its diplomats in Islamabad.

Korean Peninsula

Month saw important moves toward rapprochement between North and South Korea with 27 April joint summit, which saw Kim Jong-un becoming first North Korean leader to set foot in South Korea for historic meeting with President Moon. Kim called meeting “starting point” for peace process and pledged “new history” for two countries; leaders issued joint statement committing to seek “complete denuclearisation” of peninsula; agreed to regular phone calls, to meet in Pyongyang later in year, to work on issues including family reunifications and transport links, and to suspend loudspeaker broadcasts and other propaganda across borders. China and U.S. welcomed agreement. Ahead of summit, North Korean state news agency (KCNA) 21 April announced Pyongyang’s suspension of all nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests on grounds it had achieved “nuclear weaponisation”, reported North Korea would close Punggye-ri underground nuclear test site – although conclusions of Chinese study released 23 April, revealing partial collapse of site in Sept 2017, cast doubt among observers on Pyongyang’s motivations. Earlier in month, Kim attended concert given by delegation of South Korean musicians who travelled to Pyongyang 31 March-3 April, met musicians and accompanying South Korean politicians. KCNA 10 April for first time publically acknowledged ongoing dialogue with U.S. when it cautioned dissenting voices against spoiling nascent atmosphere of reconciliation. U.S. President Trump 18 April reported Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Pyongyang 30 March-1 April for talks at “extremely high levels” to prepare for Trump-Kim summit; said U.S. will continue campaign of “maximum pressure” until North Korea agrees to denuclearisation. Seoul reported that Kim offered to invite foreign experts to witness decommissioning of nuclear test site ahead of meeting with Trump.

Maldives

UN Human Rights Committee ruled that exiled former President Nasheed’s terrorism conviction was based on flawed evidence and violated his right to a fair trial, arguing he should be allowed to stand for election; ruling made public 16 April. Maldives govt rejected call, saying conviction was “lawful and final”. EU 19 April issued report following Jan election follow-up mission; report stated electoral conditions had to change “so that the next elections are held in line with international obligations”, noting developments since Feb declaration of state of emergency had exacerbated issues; govt refuted report’s findings, reiterating invitation to international groups to observe electoral process.

Taiwan Strait

China 18 April held first ever live-fire exercises in Taiwan Strait, saying they were intended as warning against Taiwanese who advocate independence. Xinhua news agency reported that nuclear-capable H-6K long-range bombers, Su-30 and J-11 fighters, armed helicopters and reconnaissance aircraft took part in two days of drills. Taiwanese govt dismissed move as “cheap verbal intimidation and sabre-rattling”. Chinese President Xi spoke for first time with Taiwanese delegation at Boao Forum for Asia on Hainan island 10 April; met with former Taiwanese Vice President Vincent Siew of Kuomintang party, called on Taiwan to cease calls for independence and reunify with mainland. U.S. and Taiwanese defence contractors due to meet in Taiwan in May to discuss military sales.

Europe & Central Asia

Armenia

Political crisis as unprecedented anti-govt protest movement forced resignation 23 April of former President Sargsyan from PM position he took up days earlier. Govt 9 April announced it would nominate Sargsyan, who was president for ten years until early March 2018, to position of PM, which under new 2015 constitution takes on hitherto presidential powers. Announcement prompted hundreds to join protests organised by MP Nikol Pashinyan of opposition Yelk alliance and a number of opposition activists in Yerevan calling for Sargsyan to step down. Tensions aggravated by violent actions of police trying to disperse and arrest protesters 16 April. Lawmakers 17 April elected Sargsyan as PM, prompting thousands across country to join demonstrations – by 22 April numbering over 100,000 in Yerevan’s main square, largest protests in Armenia’s post-independence history. Sargsyan walked out of 22 April dialogue with Pashinyan, who was later detained by security forces, released next day. Sargsyan unexpectedly resigned 23 April, stating “Pashinyan was right. I got it wrong”. Planned talks between Pashinyan and acting PM Karapetyan 25 April to discuss transitional period, election of new PM and date for snap parliamentary elections were cancelled at last minute, prompting resumption of mass protests. Speaker of parliament 26 April announced parliament would elect new interim PM on 1 May. Yelk alliance 30 April officially nominated Pashinyan for PM position; meeting with parties in parliament same day, Pashinyan promised no rapid change in Armenian foreign policy, calling for cooperation with both Russia and the West; called for reform of electoral system prior to new parliamentary elections.

Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict

With threat of military escalation still high, observers warned that political turmoil in Armenia (see Armenia) increases risks in Nagorno-Karabakh and could create temptation for Yerevan or Baku to launch new attacks in conflict zone. Armenian side 22 April distributed video footage of Azerbaijani tanks moving close to southern location of Line of Contact (LoC); Azerbaijan denied, while OSCE Minsk Group 23 April called for restraint “at this delicate time”. Overall situation in conflict zone stayed tense but calm, with sides reporting slight increase in exchanges of fire. Three Armenian soldiers reported killed at military units in southern (9 April) and northern locations (15 and 17 April) of LoC with no connection to attacks from Azerbaijani side. Azerbaijan 18 April reported one civilian wounded at central location of LoC; Armenian side denied. Marking second anniversary of “Four-Day War” 2 April, Armenian and Azerbaijani officials made statements blaming other side for conflict.

Azerbaijan

President Aliyev won 11 April snap presidential election with 86% of vote for his fourth term in office. Main opposition parties boycotted poll; OSCE election observation mission preliminary assessment noted several shortcomings including restrictive political environment, limits on fundamental freedoms, and lack of genuine competition, prompting verbal attacks by pro-govt media at 12 April press conference. In his first post-election public address, Aliyev promised more work on Nagorno-Karabakh issue in international institutions, while still highlighting need for continued modernisation of army.

Belarus

Parliament 19 April passed first reading of draft amendments to media law that would tighten control over online media and social media. European Parliament same day called on Belarus to “immediately and unconditionally” abandon amendments, which they said threaten free speech; and calling for authorities to rehabilitate political prisoners and end harassment of independent media.

Bosnia And Herzegovina

Visiting Sarajevo 10 April, PM of Bulgaria – currently holding presidency of the Council of the EU – warned that Bosnia faces political paralysis if ethnic political blocs fail to agree on electoral reform ahead of general elections due in Oct, required to form new govt at state and federation level. Upper chamber of parliament cannot be established without new law after Constitutional Court Dec 2016 ruled previous electoral mechanism unconstitutional, and subsequently invalidated those parts of law. Senior U.S. diplomat warned U.S. congressional Committee on Foreign Affairs of destabilising consequences of potential ensuing crisis. Speaker of Russia’s upper house of parliament visited capital Sarajevo 23 April, gave speech criticising NATO enlargement in Balkans; next day visited Bosnian Serb capital Banja Luka, met with Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik and reiterated Moscow’s support for entity. Police arrested two people in two anti-terror raids in Sarajevo 10 April, found weapons, bombs, ammunition and Islamic State (ISIS) flags.

Cyprus

Greek Cypriot President Anastasiades and Turkish Cypriot leader Akıncı 16 April met for informal dinner in UN-controlled buffer zone for first time since July 2017 collapse in reunification talks. UN official described meeting as “frank and open exchange of views”; however, observers noted prospects for relaunching reunification talks remain dim. Tensions over hydrocarbons dispute in Eastern Mediterranean continued, but without serious confrontation; ExxonMobil vessel 5 April completed ten-day exploration in Cyprus’s exclusive economic zone. Amid increasing tensions between Turkey and Israel over Gaza protests (see Israel/Palestine), and between Turkey and Greece (see Turkey), Anastasiades and Greek PM Tsipras 4 April met with Israeli PM Netanyahu to discuss construction of gas pipeline from Israel to Western Europe via Cyprus and Greece; follow-up trilateral summit planned in Nicosia in May.

Georgia

Govt 4 April unveiled new peace initiative for breakaway regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia, consisting of new package of laws and project papers in three main areas: simplified registration, increased trade, and education opportunities for people living in de facto entities; represents govt’s first plan in at least five years, reportedly took over a year to build consensus around it within ministries and some opposition parties. De facto authorities in breakaway regions declined plan, which they warned could provoke nationalist calls to halt all contact with Georgia; observers noted that Tbilisi had failed to consult de facto officials while preparing it. Moscow criticised initiative. Tbilisi govt to submit plan for parliamentary approval in coming weeks prior to fundraising in foreign capitals.

Kosovo

European Commission report on Kosovo 17 April criticised lack of progress on war crimes prosecution; lack of cooperation with Serbian authorities on issue; and expressed concern over willingness to prosecute former members of Kosovo Liberation Army. Report called for Kosovo and Serbia to “remain engaged” in dialogue to normalise relations. In interview with Guardian newspaper, Serbian President Vučić said he expects agreement this year, Serbia “ready to discuss every single issue” for compromise solution. EU 3 April criticised Pristina for late March deportation to Turkey of six Turkish nationals wanted for alleged links to Gülen movement which Ankara blames for July 2016 coup attempt; said deportations raise questions about respect for human rights and due process. Kosovo parliament 4 April voted to establish committee to investigate deportations.

Kyrgyzstan

President Jeenbekov dismissed several senior officials early April, including head and deputy of State Committee for National Security and prosecutor general, dismantling networks loyal to former President Atambayev. Jeenbekov 19 April dismissed govt after parliament passed vote of no confidence in PM Isakov, close ally of Atambayev. Moves came amid signs of tensions between Jeenbekov and Atambayev, who earlier publicly criticised his successor after being elected head of ruling Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK) on 31 March. Atambayev said he does not want to become PM, plans to prepare SDPK for 2020 parliamentary elections. State Committee for National Security 26 April questioned former PM Isakov in relation to alleged corruption. Three people injured along border with Tajikistan in clash between some 50 residents of Kyrgyz town Uch-Dobo (Batken province) and Tajik settlement Khodja-Alo (Isfara district) 3 April, after Kyrgyz woman reportedly attempted to erect fence inside non-demarcated territory in infringement of border regulations. More than 500 people rallied against Chinese-owned gold mining and processing plant in Toguz-Toro district, Jalalabad province 11 April, claiming owners were breaching environmental laws; several buildings set on fire as protests turned violent, demonstrators reportedly attacked police with stones; fifteen people arrested.

Moldova

Representatives of Chisinau govt and Transnistria 24 April agreed that vehicles in separatist region can use neutral licence plates starting in Sept 2018. EU official said agreement, which is backed by Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, “represents an important step forward and contributes to a positive dynamic in the Transnistrian settlement process”, and would “bring tangible benefits to the population”. At 12 April forum in Ukrainian capital Kyiv, PM suggested Russia withdraw its roughly 1,412 troops stationed in Transnistria, via Ukraine. Both Russia and Ukraine denounced proposal.

North Macedonia