Tracking Conflict Worldwide

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CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Outlook for This Month January 1970

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Trends for Last Month травня 2012

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Conflict in Focus

Violence continued in Syria, with fears of sectarian conflict growing after 108 were killed in Houla during heavy regime shelling. Residents claimed that scores of women and children were massacred by pro-regime Alawite militiamen from nearby villages. A series of deadly bombings, blamed by the Assad regime on al-Qaeda, also rocked the country, including Damascus. UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Anan warned that Syria is at “tipping point”.

CrisisWatch Digests

In neighbouring Lebanon, escalating violence between supporters and opponents of the Syrian government provoked fears of a return to confessional violence: fighting erupted in Tripoli between Sunnis and Alawites. The killing of a Sunni cleric and the abduction of 11 Lebanese Shiite pilgrims in Syria further raised tensions. Meanwhile, a string of violent incidents on the Lebanese-Syrian border resulted in several deaths and injuries. Crisis Group identifies a conflict risk for Lebanon.

As a 40-day transition period ended in Mali, pro-junta demonstrators stormed the presidential palace, wounding Interim President Traoré, after ECOWAS blocked the military junta’s attempt to name coup leader Captain Sanogo as interim president. In the north, the conflict continues to intensify with the UN announcing that some 320,000 have been displaced since January.

The conflict worsened in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Fierce fighting between the army and rebels – including a new rebel group “M23” – has displaced thousands in the region. UNHCR reported that the number of displaced people across the country topped 2 million this month for the first time in nearly three years.

In Mexico, in another sign of worsening drug-related violence, some 90 bodies – many of them dismembered – were dumped across the country. Five journalists were murdered only in two weeks, three of them in Veracruz, raising the number of journalists killed to 109 since the war on drug cartels started in 2006. The most recent deaths raise fears the violence may detrimentally affect freedom of expression in the run up to the July general election.

In Pakistan, tensions with the U.S. deepened after a tribal court sentenced a doctor who aided in the hunt for Bin Laden to 33 years in prison. NATO supply routes remain closed amid ongoing diplomatic wrangling. Meanwhile, political and sectarian violence in Karachi and Quetta, two of Pakistan’s largest cities, continued throughout May, claiming over 20 lives.

In Nepal, political parties failed to announce a new constitution by the 27 May deadline, ending four years of negotiations and prompting the dissolution of the Constituent Assembly. The announcement by Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai that he intends to lead the country until November elections for a new Constituent Assembly was condemned as unconstitutional by the opposition Nepali Congress.

Things did improve in Haiti, however. Foreign Minister Lamothe was confirmed as the new Prime Minister after six months of political instability.

Latest Updates



Human rights activist Pierre Claver Mbonimpa late May reportedly discovered President Nkurunziza acquitted in 2011 by Supreme Court in total secrecy for 1998 atrocities, effectively awarding amnesty; Mbonimpa said move constitutes procedural irregularity as affair was supposed to be addressed in Truth and Reconciliation. Opposition ADC leaders, ruling party members, former heads of state, civil society met 28 May at leadership retreat, sparking hope for political dialogue. Army 4 May announced death of former Forces for National Liberation (FNL) commander Carmel, accused by govt of masterminding 2011 Gatumba bar massacre. Ombudsman Mohamed Rukara 9 May said plot to kill him uncovered, declined to release names. 14 sentenced to 10 years life imprisonment 22 May in connection with 2009 killing of anti-corruption activist.


Following postponement of elections originally scheduled July 2012 and adoption of new electoral code, opposition parties 12 May agreed to boycott 20 May national day celebrations. Fears of spillover from conflict in Nigeria exacerbated by 4 May shootout with suspected Boko Haram gunmen in border town of Banki; incident follows 12 April attack which left 5 dead in same town; regional leaders 1 May called on Cameroon to re-integrate joint deterrence force of Lake Chad Basin Commission (CBLT) to tackle Boko Haram threat.

Central African Republic

Disarmament recommenced 12 May in centre north: People’s Army for Restoration of Democracy (APRD) rebel group officially dissolved 17 May. President Bozizé 15 May invited political parties, rebel representatives, civil society, diplomats to presidential palace; Bozizé delivered speech but no dialogue held. 2 villages burned, 5 killed 20-23 May near Batangafo, centre north; regional lawmaker blamed Chadian cattle herders and rebel Front Populaire pour le Redressement (FPR). Ugandan army 12 May captured LRA commander Caesar Acellam in SE.


Judges, citing procedural irregularities, 10 May rejected calls for release of president’s chief of staff and former AU ambassador to EU, Mahamat Saleh Annadif, arrested mid-April on corruption charges. Govt 21 May launched “operation Cobra” to promote transparency in handling of public funds, better governance. President Déby 1 May called for creation of “joint deterrence force” to fight Boko Haram at Lake Chad Basin Commission.

Côte d’Ivoire

UNOCI 7 May asked govt to consider “situation in jails as top priority” following 4 May prison escape by 52 inmates, including several pro-Gbagbo hardliners. At least 4 killed 13 May in clashes between security forces and armed gang in Bangolo. Govt 23 May issued 30-day ultimatum calling on all persons illegally holding weapons to voluntarily disarm. Deputy Defence Minister Koffi Koffi 10 May said CDI, Liberia agreed to deploy troops to borders. Govt 19 May banned pro-Gbagbo daily Notre Voie for 5 days following publication of Gbagbo photo labelled “President of Republic deposed by ‘UN-France coalition’”.

Democratic Republic of Congo

Fighting escalated in Kivu region as FARDC continue to hunt Bosco Ntaganda, wanted by ICC for war crimes; UNHCR 29 May said over 40,000 displaced by recent violence; MONUSCO said over 98 killed between 9 May and 25 May, N Kivu. New armed group, Movement for 23 March (M23), emerged 10 May after govt crackdown on former CNDP troops following April attempted mutiny by Ntaganda; military court 30 May sentenced in absentia 2 officers to death for role in mutiny, 11 others given prison sentences. Leaked MONUSCO report late May said Rwandans recruited to help M23; Kigali denied allegation, DRC govt 29 May said investigation underway; UN 30 May said 11 Rwandans recruited but no evidence Rwandan govt involved. FDLR launched several attacks on FARDC throughout month in Kivus; UNOCHA 16 May said FDLR killed at least 50 civilians in May. 7 peacekeepers wounded by gunfire 15 May during protest at UN base in S Kivu. Kinshasa police 14 May confirmed investigation into corruption allegations levelled at former PM Adolphe Muzito.


Relations with U.S. deteriorated as U.S. govt 17 May announced suspension of consular, diplomatic services in Eritrea, reportedly in response to Eritrean refusal to guarantee visas for diplomatic staff. President Afewerki received Sudanese counterpart late May, discussed bilateral relations.


Opposition coalition Forum for Democratic Dialogue in Ethiopia (Medrek) condemned Ethiopia-Sudan convict exchange agreement signed 16 May, said could be used to prosecute political refugees. Court 17 May confirmed terror charges against 11 accused of forming cell linked with al-Qaeda. Following April announcement of govt crackdown on suspected extremists, Muslims demonstrated throughout month to protest govt interference, including attempt to impose anti-wahabi Abhash sect as lead of Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs in Ethiopia. Contradicting earlier statement withdrawal imminent, PM Meles Zenawi 21 May said troops deployed in Somalia preparing surge to combat al-Shabaab.


Thousands of opposition demonstrators 10 May resumed protests over govt refusal to organise transparent, credible elections; dozens of demonstrators, policemen wounded. Govt asked electoral commission to suspend controversial voter registration, 13 May organised “giant meeting” where thousands rallied to show support for ruling party Rally of the Guinea People.


Junta, ECOWAS, opposition parties 11 May agreed to nominate Serifo Nhamadjo to preside over 1-year transition; Rui Duarte Barros named PM 16 May. Majority party PAIGC and CPLP strongly criticised ECOWAS for “legitimising coup d’état”. ECOWAS 19 May started deploying 629-strong Burkinabè/ Nigerian/Senegalese security force. Angolan official 31 May said departure of MISSANG soldiers expected 2-10 June. UNSC 18 May imposed sanctions on coup leaders, demanded legitimate democratic govt. EU 31 May said does not recognise interim govt, broadened own list of sanctions targets.


PM Raila Odinga warned of ethnic violence around next year’s polls, said some politicians seeking to “Balkanise” country along ethnic lines. 5 police officers killed in bomb explosion at Dadaab refugee camp 15 May; same day 1 killed, 5 wounded in nightclub grenade attack, Mombasa; 1 killed, over 30 injured by bomb explosions 27 May, Nairobi. Armed forces 31 May announced capture of Somali towns Afmadow, Hayo, at least 17 al-Shabaab militants killed.


Govt 28 April launched first of 5 regional justice and security hubs in Gbarnga. Senate 4 May pulled out of joint legislative group set up to probe national oil company NOCAL, review oil production sharing agreements. Special Court for Sierra Leone 30 May sentenced former President Taylor to 50 years in jail for war crimes, crimes against humanity.


Transitional President Rajoelina 18 May met UNSG Ban in New York, announced willingness to forge political agreement with former president Ravalomanana, hold elections soon, said Ravalomanana not allowed to participate in polls; Ravalomanana cautioned against poll prior to his return, supporters boycotted transitional govt meetings throughout month. Transitional electoral commission 29 May announced “partial” electoral calendar, deferred decision on election date to Aug. SADC Troika 11 May called for amnesties for all political exiles including Ravalomanana, end to transitional roadmap implementation stalemate. Police 19 May violently dispersed protesters demonstrating against media crackdown following 2 May detention of 2 journalists, several arrested. U.S. State Dept 2011 human rights report, released 24 May, labelled transitional govt “illegal”, condemned widespread unlawful killings, arbitrary arrests.


In first state of nation address, President Banda 18 May called for restoration of rule of law, announced inquiries into former president Mutharika’s death, April coup plot, Malawi Revenue Authority tax scandal; revealed plans to revoke anti- gay legislation. Multiple MPs defected to Banda’s People’s Party. President Banda 17 May fired head of Anti-Corruption Board Alex Nampota, accused of shielding former president Mutharika’s collaborators from investigations.


ECOWAS refused to accept decision by convention of pro-junta associations and parties naming Captain Sanogo as interim president at end of 40-day transition period prompting pro-junta demonstrators to storm presidential palace 21 May, wounding interim President Traoré; ECOWAS reached deal giving Sanogo status of ex-president in exchange for his acceptance of Traoré as interim president for 1 year. Algeria 1 May launched airstrike against Movement for Unicity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJWA) convoy near Tinzawaten, killed 20. New armed group, Republican Movement for Restoration of Azawad (MRRA), reportedly formed 19 May, composed of Songhai, Fulani, Tuareg and Arabs; stated aim to recover Azawad from rebels. MNLA spokesman 1 June said negotiations with Islamist militant rebel group Ansar Dine to establish Azawad Republic failed. AQIM/ Ansar Dine started enforcing Sharia in Timbuktu, attacked holy Muslim Sufi site; foreign, including South Asian, fighters reportedly joined AQIM ranks mid-May. Dispute over land/grazing rights between Fula and Dogon ethnic groups along Burkina Faso border left at least 25 dead 24 May.


Security forces clashed with Boko Haram (BH) throughout month; 6 May shootout in Kano left 4 BH members dead; shootouts 13 May in Borno and Zamfara states left 6 security force officers dead; suspected “BH enclave” in Jos destroyed 19 May. Bomb in Taraba state 30 April killed 11 policemen; govt 22 May foiled separate attempts to bomb police HQ and govt radio station in Abuja. Unknown gunmen 28 May killed 4 traders from mainly Christian Igbo ethnic group in northeastern Nigeria; unclear whether attack carried out by BH. German hostage abducted in Jan killed 30 May during failed rescue operation in Kano; 5 gunmen killed. Gunmen 28 May kidnapped Italian engineer in western state of Kwara.


Govt expressed security concerns following influx of over 7,000 refugees from N Kivu; 31 May accused UN of stirring regional tensions following report DRC fighters recruited in Rwanda. Police chief agreed to establishment of joint border security force to prevent infiltration by destabilising elements from DRC at meeting with Ugandan counterpart 19 May.


Casamance separatists (MFDC) 7 May raided Mané- counda, Kounaya villages, took 10 hostages; 13 May raided Brikama village. Defence Minister Augustin Tine 10 May said liberation of 5 soldiers held since Dec imminent. Head of Collective of Casa- mance’s Leaders, Pierre Goudiaby Atépa, 19 May launched appeal to MFDC military leaders for return to peace.


UN, AU and IGAD 1 May issued rare joint statement expressing continued concern at threat posed to transition by Somali spoilers. Signatories of Mogadishu Roadmap including TFG President Sharif met 21-23 May in Addis Ababa to discuss changes to draft constitution, overall mandate and new deadlines; agreed to guidelines for Constituent Assembly and Federal Parliament. Elders meeting to choose 825 delegates to Constituent Assembly opened 5 May. Some 300 civil society members including 135 traditional elders met 26-30 May in Istanbul to discuss Somalia’s future in preparation for 31 May-1 June conference. 7 killed 1 May in al-Shabaab suicide attack targeting group of politicians visiting Galgadud region. AMISOM, Transitional Federal Govt (TFG) forces 27 May captured strategic town of Afgooye, near Mogadishu; President Sharif ’s convoy ambushed 29 May while visiting area, 1 soldier killed, 6 injured. At least 9 killed 7 May in al-Shabaab attack on AU forces, Mogadishu; at least 7 killed 19 May in bomb, grenade attacks. 6 killed 30 May by roadside bomb in Galkayo town, Puntland. EU 15 May conducted first onshore strikes against pirates near Haradhere town.


Military court 17 May sentenced 17 civilians to death, 5 minors to life for 15 May clash with military that left 3 soldiers, 4 civilians dead. Deputy leader of opposition Democratic party Ali Borsed, opposition NDB leader Fowzia Haji Aden and opposition Jamhuriya party leader Mohamed Odawa arrested 1 May in Hargeisa, released several hours later; govt banned planned protests against electoral commission’s 20 April rejection of right to register their political parties.

South Sudan

UNSC 2 May adopted resolution calling for withdrawal of S Sudan and Sudan armed forces from disputed areas, establishment of joint border security mechanisms, endorsed AUHIP-mediated negotiations, threatened sanctions against Sudan, S Sudan if they fail to comply with AU roadmap for talks; govt 29 May said Sudan bombarded Werguet, Majak Woi border, Khartoum denied attack; talks resumed 29 May. UN Human Rights chief Pillay visited 8-12 May, called for continued vigilance in combating human rights violations, criticised recent bombing raids by Sudan. UNSG Ban 12 May commended S Sudan on withdrawal of “special police” forces from Abyei, called on Khartoum to do same, establish Abyei Area Administration. UNSC 17 May extended mandate of Abyei peacekeeping force by 6 months. Aid group Medecins Sans Frontiers accused military of rape, torture, extrajudicial killing of Muerle tribe members during disarmament campaign initiated March 2012. Jonglei state tribal leaders 5 May signed agreement to end cycle of inter-ethnic clashes.


Govt 27 May filed complaint at UNSC accusing S Sudan of cross-border incursions. S Sudan 22 May accused Khartoum of conducting air strikes against S Sudan 21-22 May in contravention of UNSC resolution, ceasefire. UNSG Ban 30 May welcomed late May withdrawal from Abyei, called for withdrawal of remaining armed police forces. President Bashir 15 May said S Sudan oil exports through Sudan will not be allowed unless disputes over border security resolved. 4 UN de-miners detained late April in Helgig region by SAF released 20 May. 1 killed 22 May in explosion, Port Sudan.


Army 12 May announced capture of LRA former intelligence chief Major General Caesar Acellam in Central African Republic, sparking dispute over whether he should be offered amnesty; chief prosecutor 22 May said Acellam will be prosecuted if found to be senior LRA official. Govt early May threatened to eject Oxfam for accusing govt of land-grabbing, demanded retraction, apology.


President Mugabe 18 May reportedly announced desire to retire but fears disintegration of Zanu-PF, 4 May called for unity as party leadership rivalry intensifies. Zanu-PF supporters 26 May reportedly stoned to death MDC-T official, injured others during rally in Mudzi. Dialogue with EU resumed 10 May; EU High Representative Ashton 17 May praised ongoing political reforms in meeting with 6 govt representatives in Brussels; Zimbabwe demanded immediate unconditional lifting of sanctions. During 19-25 May visit, UN human rights chief Pillay called for suspension of sanctions, free and fair polls, activation of human rights commission before elections, non partisan behaviour by security forces, greater media freedoms. EU, U.S. vowed to maintain sanctions until elections held, permanent political reform demonstrated; Attorney General responded by filing sanctions lawsuit against EU. South African High Court 8 May ruled Pretoria must investigate March 2007 attack on MDC, civil society activists in Zimbabwe; Zimbabwe Justice Minister Chinamasa said ruling “lies”, violation of sovereignty. Draft constitution, released 30 April, endorsed by MDC-T, Zanu-PF demanded significant rewriting; tensions remain over presidential powers, devolution.



NATO summit late-May focussed on Afghanistan said 2014 withdrawal “irreversible”, reaffirmed commitment to long-term strategic partnership. Govt 13 May agreed border control mechanism, discussed restoration of NATO supply with ISAF, Pakistan at Tripartite Commission meeting. ISAF 29 May announced al-Qaeda second-in-command killed in 28 May air strike, Kunar province. 2 NATO soldiers killed, 6 injured 18 May in rocket attack on base in Kunar; 13 killed 19 May in suicide bomb attack on police checkpoint, Khost province; 6 police, 1 civilian killed 17 May in multiple suicide bomb attack on govt compound, Farah province; 8 police killed 20 May in clash with Taliban, Badakhstan; at least 11 police, one NATO soldier killed 31 May in Taliban bombings. ISAF 3 May reported capture of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) leader in Kunduz province.


Month saw widespread protests against April arrest of 45 opposition leaders, disappearance of BNP regional leader Ilyas Ali; 200 injured 13 May across Bangladesh; several bombs exploded, over 100 arrested 17 May during Dhaka protest. Opposition set 10 June ultimatum for restoration of caretaker govt to oversee 2013 national elections, threatening boycott. U.S. Secretary of State Clinton 5 May called for political dialogue during visit to Dhaka. 3 top Jamaat-e-Islami members, including leader Ghulam Azam, indicted 12, 28 May for genocide, murder during 1971 Bangladesh liberation war; first trial expected to start 20 June; party said charges politically motivated. 9 journalists wounded 29 May in attack on Dhaka news outlet.


7 Maoists, including former bodyguard of slain leader Kishenji, surrendered 23 May. 6 police, 1 civilian killed 14 May in Maoist attack, Chattisgarh. Senior ISA official freed 3 May after 12 days in captivity. 4 Maoists killed 9 May in firefight in Tinsukia district of Assam. Opposition 31 May led nationwide strike protesting rising fuel prices.

India-Pakistan (Kashmir)

Police 21 May prevented Hurriyat Conference protest in Srinagar commemorating 1990 Mirwaiz Farooq assassination. 14 injured 19 May in grenade attack on police station near Srinagar. Senior Hizbul Mujahidin militant killed 25 May by security forces in Jammu. 7 Indian soldiers injured in 30 May Srinagar attack.


Hardline Muslim groups 5, 9 May disrupted lectures by Canadian Muslim feminist in Jakarta, Yogyakarta; police failed to intervene. Lady Gaga cancelled planned Jakarta concert following protest by hardliners. 1 Papuan shot dead, 3 wounded by paramilitary police 15 May at gold mining site in Degeuwo, Paniai; police to launch internal investigation. Suspected Free Papua Movement (OPM) attack 17 May killed 1, injured 3 in Puncak Jaya. 55 injured in 15 May clash between Christian, Muslim groups in Ambon; 6 suspects linked to September 2011 deadly unrest in Ambon arrested 17 May.

Korean Peninsula

DPRK 22 May vowed to strengthen nuclear deterrent after U.S. threatened further sanctions if regime fails to abandon nuclear program. U.S., EU, ROK, Japan 1 May submitted list of some 40 DPRK companies to UNSC sanctions committee for possible blacklisting; 3 DPRK state-owned companies added to list 2 May. Japan vice-FM Hamada 2 May urged DPRK against further provocation; UNSC P5 urged DPRK to refrain from nuclear tests. DPRK officials 17 May demanded payment for release of Chinese fishing boats, 29 crew, 22 May released fishermen. Pictures purportedly showing signs of activity at new North Korea rocket launch facilities published 22 May. DPRK revised Constitution published 30 May proclaimed status as nuclear-armed state.


VP Tin Aung Myint Oo 3 May reportedly resigned on health grounds, govt yet to officially confirm. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi 2 May debuted in parliament, given passport for first time in 24 years ahead of May, June travel to Thailand, UK, Ireland, Norway, Switzerland. At least 31 killed early May in govt clashes with Kachin Independence Army (KIA); KIA rebels 15 May appealed to UNSG for UN observers to monitor conflict zone. President Thein Sein 3 May named as chairman of new peace team to negotiate with armed groups. Govt, Shan State Army rebels 19 May agreed to enforce ceasefire, eradicate drug production in area; armed clashes occurred 23 May. Rare protests in Yangon, Mandalay, other cities late May over electricity shortages, govt appealed for understanding. G8 leaders 19 May praised ongoing political reforms. U.S. Secretary of State Clinton 17 May announced easing of investment ban, named new ambassador, called for release of remaining political prisoners. Following first official visit for 9 years, Amnesty International report released 24 May noted major human rights improvements in past year, but expressed concern over continued violations. During 14 May visit by South Korean President Lee, President Thein Sein pledged to abide by UNSC resolutions on DPRK’s nuclear program, halt weapons purchases from DPRK. MPs 10 May visited European Parliament, met with European Council President van Rompuy, EU High Representative Ashton.


Constituent Assembly (CA) dissolved after political parties 27 May failed to promulgate new constitution. PM Baburam Bhattarai announced new CA elections for 22 Nov; main opposition Nepali Congress denounced decision as unconstitutional; 30 May said intends to topple govt through protests. Supreme Court 24 May stayed govt and opposition proposal to extend CA’s term by 3 months, upholding Nov 2011 verdict offering 3 options: state of emergency, fresh elections, other agreed-upon alternative. Run- up to CA deadline saw shutdowns from identity-based groups, including 20-day strike in west. Some attacks on media in 20-22 May strike called by indigenous umbrella organisation rejecting 15 May deal between parties for not recognising ethnic identity, 52 arrested. 4 killed 1 May in Janakpur after IED attack by Madhesi armed group. Supreme Court judge under investigation for corruption shot dead 31 May, Kathmandu.


President Zardari attended NATO summit 20-22 May, urged “permanent solution” to U.S. drone strikes: 4 killed 23 May, 10 killed 24 May, 4 killed 26 May, 12 killed 29 May in reported drone strikes, North Waziristan. Tensions with U.S. deepened after tribal court sentenced doctor who helped CIA find Bin Laden to 33 years in prison for, according to leaked court document, providing medical care to banned terror groups; U.S. Secretary of State Clinton 24 May said move “unjust and unwarranted”. NATO supply lines remained closed, U.S. rejected demand for $5,000 per container. Violence in Karachi continued: at least 9 killed, 30 wounded 22 May when gunmen opened fire on political rally, sparking riots, gunfights; 9 killed, including senior police officer, in targeted attacks 9 May, following court-martial of 3 navy officers for “negligence” in connection with 2011 Taliban attack on Karachi Naval base. 3 killed 28 May in bombing targeting police, Quetta. 20 killed 4 May, 9 soldiers killed 5 May, further 2 killed 28 May in militant attacks in tribal belt. Govt 10 May announced successful nuclear-capable short-range missile test; 31 May con- ducted medium-range missile test. Speaker of national assembly 24 May refused to disqualify PM Gilani over contempt conviction; opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf parties 28 May filed petitions with Supreme Court challenging decision. National conference of all political parties, hosted by Supreme Court Bar Association 25 May, called for end of military operations, withdrawal of military and paramilitary troops from Balochistan.


Fishing ban declared by Philippines, China mid-May failed to end Scarborough Shoal dispute, defence chiefs 28 May agreed to exercise restraint. Govt-MILF peace talks resumed 28 May. MILF military affairs chief died 3 May, replacement not yet announced. Mid-May conflict between local MILF, Moro National Liberation Front commanders in North Cotabato displaced close to 300 families. 3 killed, 24 injured in grenade blast in Iligan City 5 May. Authorities 30 May confirmed March murder of witness in 2009 Maguindanao massacre trial. Abu Sayyaf Group rebels 11 May freed Malaysian kidnapped May 2011, still holding 6 foreigners hostage. Senate 29 May impeached Chief Justice Corona on corruption charges.

Sri Lanka

3rd anniversary of end of civil war commemorated 18-19 May, President Rajapaksa announced govt implementing some LLRC recommendations, would not be dictated to by outside powers. FM G.L. Peiris 18 May met U.S. Secretary of State Clinton during Washington visit, said inquiry into limited set of alleged war crimes by security forces had begun, but presented no concrete plan for accountability or implementation of LLRC. Govt 24 May announced establishment of new courts to accelerate trials of Tamil civil war suspects. Former army chief and Democratic National alliance leader Sarath Fonseka released 21 May follow- ing presidential remittance of sentence, terms of release bar him from political office for 7 years. Govt 13 May announced plans for Sept provincial elections in North Central, Sabaragawumuwa and Eastern provinces, but not North. Canadian High Commissioner to Sri Lanka called for full investigation amid allegations of military involvement in early May murder of Canadian citizen of Tamil origin, Kilinochichi.


Scuffles in parliament, “yellow shirt” protests followed 29 May introduction of reconciliation bills, which include amnesty for former PM Thaksin Shinawatra. Large-scale peaceful rallies 19 May marked 2nd anniversary of 2010 deadly protests; Department of Special Investigations 17 May said “state authorities” responsible for at least 25 deaths during 2010 crackdown; first of 18 inquests into state involvement in deaths began 21 May. 8 May death of man jailed Nov 2011 for 20 years for insulting king in text messages, 30 May conviction of news website manager for lese majesté resulted in “red shirt” protests, petitions to govt for law reform. 5-year ban given in 2007 to 111 politicians from Thai Rak Thai Party expired 30 May, several expected to be appointed to cabinet in upcoming reshuffle. Constitutional Court 18 May declared July 2011 election of “red shirt” leader Jatuporn Prompan invalid, stripped him of parliamentary seat. Deputy PM Yuthasak Sasiprapa 15 May announced initiative to better integrate govt agencies’ efforts to address southern violence; Organisation of the Islamic Conference delegation visited 7-13 May to assess situation in south, noted improved situation, encouraged dialogue; attacks continued in Pattani including 1 May bombing of military convoy killing 3, 3 May attack killing 4 local officials, 13 May insurgent ambush injuring 16 paramilitary rangers, 28 May bombing killing 3 civil defence volunteers.


Taur Matan Ruak 20 May sworn in as president during ceremonies marking 10-year independence anniversary.

Europe & Central Asia


Ruling Republican Party of Armenia (HHK) won 69 of 131 mandates in 6 May parliamentary elections with reported 44% of votes; opposition coalition Armenian National Congress (HAK) surpassed 7% threshold to enter parliament. Prosperous Armenia Party (BHK), Armenian Revolutionary Federation (HHD), HAK alleged widespread violations, fraud; BHK leader Gagik Tsarukian 24 May ruled out joining ruling-coalition.

Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict

Officials 17 May said soldier severely injured near border. Minsk Group co-Chairs 11-14 May visited Yerevan and Baku, expressed concerns over line of contact incidents.


Police in Baku throughout month broke-up unsanctioned opposition rallies demanding greater freedoms, protesting country’s poor human rights record. Court 16 May released prominent opposition activist Elnur Mecidli, arrested following April protest.


U.S. Treasury Department 22 May said Belarusian Cedex bank institution “of primary money laundering concern”, proposed banning transactions with U.S. financial institutions.

Bosnia And Herzegovina

Coalition govt to split following defection of coalition member Bosniak Party of Democratic Action (SDA) in 30 April vote finalising 2012 budget; Social Democratic Party 31 May called for SDA to leave coalition. Party leaders made substantial progress towards implementation of agreements on state and defence property, governance of autonomous Brčko district; U.S., UK, Turkey signalled Office of High Representative closure subject to assessment of political situation. Republika Srpska (RS) Serb parliamentary parties 17 May said BiH NATO accession would require referendum in RS. ICTY trial of Ratko Mladić began 16 May on charges of genocide. BiH 22 May announced plans for local elections despite EU refusal to recognise polls due to discrimination against ethnic minorities.


President Christofias 14 May ruled out re-election after pledge to bow out if no reunification solution found. UNSG Ban 19 May reportedly suggested in meeting with EU Commission President Barroso bid to convince Turkey to renew negotiations despite Turkish vow to freeze negotiations during Cypriot EU Presidency. UN Special Adviser Downer 24 May said convergences achieved so far should not be “thrown away”, expressed desire for talks to continue at technical level with discussion of confidence building measures but admitted “period of uncertainty” while President Christofias’ successor unknown. After French, Italian, Russian oil companies bid 11 May for Cyprus East Mediterranean hydrocarbon blocks, Turkey 18 May warned it will not allow exploration in disputed zones, said applying for Cypriot licenses would disqualify them from Turkish contracts.


80,000-100,000 attended mass rally 27 May in Tibilisi marking start of opposition coalition Georgian Dream election campaign. Ruling United National Movement reduced residency requirement for Georgian-born EU citizens running for presidency to 5 years; Georgian Dream leader Bidzina Ivanishvili refused to use amendment, said changes “propaganda tricks”, asked to be granted dual citizenship instead. State audit agency fined private company $3mn for allegedly making political donations to Georgian Dream. Russian Anti-terrorism Committee (NAK) 10 May reportedly discovered of arms cache in Abkhazia, alleged Caucasus Emirate leader Doku Umarov planning attack in Sochi in cooperation with Georgian security services.


Kyrgyz President Atambaev 10 May began 2 day visit to discuss bilateral issues with President Nazarbaev, PM Masimov. Ex-prison warden 17 May sentenced to 5 years jail in connection with Dec 2011 Janaozen violence; court 23 May sentenced 11 in Aktau for Shetpe riot sparked by Janaozen violence, 6 later amnestied; 5 police 28 May sentenced to 5-7 years for “abuse of power” during Janaozen violence. Copper mine workers 7 May ended 2 day strike after salaries doubled; gold mine workers 18 May began strike over salaries; large protest 19 May in Temirtau organised by metallurgic workers trade union.


Serbian elections 6, 20 May conducted peacefully; OSCE Chairperson 21 May commended “responsible behaviour on all sides”; 2 N Kosovo municipalities conducted local Serbian elections despite opposition from international community; Priština 8 May condemned local elections as illegal. Kosovo 23 May announced opening of administrative office in North Mitrovica to disburse govt funds; Serbia said move “flagrant provocation”. Serbian presidential elections 20 May passed without violence in N Kosovo; new Serbian President Nikolić 28 May stated Serbia would not recognise Kosovo in return for EU membership. EULEX forces 21 May raided home of N Kosovo Serb businessman Zvonko Veselinović, suspected of links to organised crime, organising riots against EULEX forces; 6 suspected accomplices arrested 30 May. 2 Kosovo Serb houses 23 May set on fire in N Kosovo, police investigating links to Albanian National Army paramilitary group.


President Atambaev 3 May softened position on U.S. use of Manas airbase, said dependent on events in Afghanistan, U.S. willingness to pay higher rent. Kyrgyzstan, U.S. signed agreement 22 May allowing NATO to establish supply routes to and from Afghanistan. Radio Azattyk 16 May reported links between Kyrgyz criminal figures and Afghan-Pakistani Haqqani network. 79 initially detained, 2 hospitalised in 20 May brawl in Moscow between Kyrgyz and Uzbek migrants, reported continuation of ethnic tensions in S Kyrgyzstan.


Defence Minister Marinuta 23 May suggested Moldova may benefit from missile warning data from European missile shield, subject to “involvement in cooperation with NATO”. U.S. 22 May agreed to provide $2mn in extra funds for rule of law development.

North Macedonia

Macedonian police 1 May arrested 20 ethnic Albanian “radical Islamists” in connection with April murders of 5 ethnic Macedonians; ethnic Albanians 4, 11 May protested arrests in Skopje. PM Gruevski condemned NATO’s “selective respect of international law” after NATO failed to consider Macedonian accession during Chicago summit due to name dispute; U.S. ambassador Wohlers 31 May stated expectation Macedonia will become NATO member before next summit. Opposition leader Branko Crvenkovski 28 May presented “classified” 2005 UN mediator proposal for name change to “Republika Makedonija”, criticized President Gruevski’s rejection of it; Gruevski 31 May cited proposal’s imprecision on nationality, language.

Russia (Internal)

In Dagestan: double suicide attack 3 May against police post in Makhachkala killed 13, injured almost 100, including 55 civilians; alleged organiser and insurgent leader Hussein Mamaev killed 15 May in counterterrorist operation (CTO). 7 militants, 2 policemen killed during 10 May clashes in Kizlyar district. 12 May ambush of security forces on border of Sergokalinsky, Kayakentsky districts killed policeman, head of local militant group. 18 May CTO in Makhachkala killed suspected militant, sparked clashes with Salafi demonstrators. Deputy Sports Minister killed 29 May in Makhachkala. In Chechnya: Interior Ministry empowered to conduct special operations in Ingushetia and Dagestan. Chechen leader Kadyrov 17 May sacked govt; Abubakar Edilgeriev 21 May named new PM. 4 suspected militants 24 May killed in Urus-Martan, Achkhoy-Martan districts. In Kabardino-Balkaria: Baksan district administration head 28 May wounded in shooting, suspected attacker killed. Tyrnauz town administration head 18 May killed by unknown gunmen. In Stavropol Krai: Neftekumsk town mosque imam wounded in shooting by unknown gunmen.


Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) leader Tomislov Nikolić 20 May defeated incumbent President Tadić in presidential elections. New President same day declared Serbia “will not stray from its European path” in effort to assuage fears over previous links to Milosević and cultivation of ties with Moscow; EU, U.S. encouraged continued dialogue with Kosovo. In first official visit to Moscow President Nikolić 28 May said Serbia would not recognize Kosovo even as requirement for EU membership.


Supreme Court 3 May ruled Islamist Jamaat Ansarullah extremist group, banned organisation. Court 30 May jailed 17 suspected Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) members. Officials 11 May announced arrest of suspected regional IMU leader Zilmurod Eshonkhonov, 2 associates in southern Khatlon Province. UN special rapporteur on torture Juan Méndez 18 May reported police, prosecutors using violence as “main investigatory tool”. Former Popular Front leaders 16 May announced plans for new Popular Front Without Weapons party to help unite political opposition. Ethnic Uzbek journalist and outspoken critic of Uzbek, Tajik govts Salim Shamsiddinov attacked 5 May by unknown assailants in Qurghon-Teppa.


State media 24 May announced creation of “Entrepreneurs Party” to challenge one-party rule. Officials 23 May signed agreement with Pakistan, India to build gas-pipeline President Berdymukhammedov 18 May amnestied 1,000 prisoners to commemorate country’s adoption of constitution.