A preliminary agreement with Somaliland giving landlocked Ethiopia access to the Gulf of Aden has heightened tensions in the Horn of Africa, a region already in turmoil. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explain the implications of the controversial accord.
New opposition alliance emerged ahead of November elections; govt defended agreement with Ethiopia.
Main opposition party formed major political coalition, electoral tensions fuelled deadly clash. Opposition Waddani party and Kaah political association 4 Aug formalised long-rumoured alliance to challenge President Bihi’s Kulimye party in 13 Nov concurrent party and presidential elections; Kaah will support Waddani’s presidential candidate Abdirahman Irro. Campaigning picked up mid-Aug onwards as Kulmiye and Waddani officials began regional tours. Meanwhile, electoral body 22 Aug reached agreement with govt and opposition on use of biometric voter verification system, removing previous point of contention. Clan militia allegedly upset with electoral proceedings 25 Aug clashed with security forces in Baligubadle town, Maroodi Jeex region with reportedly one killed; armed group stood down after quick intervention of elders.
Security forces clashed with Dhulbahante clan in Sanaag region. Govt forces and Dhulbahante members 27 Aug clashed in Erigabo town; further clashes erupted between opposing clans in Goof village next day, leaving at least five dead. Authorities from both Somaliland and SSC-Khatumo (self-declared administration for Dhulbahante community) blamed each other for violence.
Govt responded to Turkish mediation of Ethiopia-Somalia dispute (see Somalia). Amid talks in Türkiye’s capital Ankara aimed at resolving tensions over Jan-announced Ethiopia-Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding over sea access and diplomatic recognition, govt 13 Aug criticised Türkiye for “lack of impartiality” and aiming to “interfere”, reiterating commitment to Ethiopia deal; Bihi 29 Aug accepted credentials of new Ethiopian ambassador. Meanwhile, Bihi 26 Aug denounced Somalia’s pressure on businesses including airlines and remittance companies to stop using Somaliland name. Earlier, govt 1 Aug established ministerial committee to promote recognition.
What Somaliland is probably trying to do by saying there are terrorists involved in the fighting is to discredit their opponent.
This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Eastern Africa, about the implications for Somalia of a possible port deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland and the risks of an escalation in regional tensions.
This edition includes entries on Bangladesh, DR Congo, Ethiopia and Somaliland, offering a snapshot into emergent conflicts and crises in the next three to six months in a clear, accessible format, identifying triggers, key dates to watch and potential behaviour of conflict actors, to support global conflict prevention efforts.
Somaliland’s army and Dhulbahante militias are fighting for control of the town of Las Anod. The Dhulbahante want to join Somalia rather than be part of Somaliland’s state-building project. The two sides should agree to a ceasefire and prepare for overdue talks on the Dhulbahante’s administrative status.
Somaliland took an important step toward stable democracy with parliamentary and local council polls on 31 May. To keep moving in this direction, authorities and the opposition should build consensus on how to run future voting and how to make the government more inclusive.
This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell welcomes Dr. Mohamed Farah Hersi to discuss Somaliland’s evolving role in the Horn of Africa as it works to legitimise itself on the global stage following an unexpected outcome in a recent parliamentary election.
Ethiopia, the U.S. and the EU have brokered surprise talks between the Somalia and Somaliland administrations, which are historically opposed, though progress has stalled while both sides prepare for elections. The parties should cooperate on technical issues, pending a shot at deeper dialogue.
Somalia and Somaliland have been at odds since the latter’s 1991 declaration of independence, which the former rejects. The dispute has cooled after heating up in 2018, but lingering tensions could threaten regional stability. To restart dialogue, the two sides should meet for technical talks.
A dispute between Puntland and Somaliland over the contested areas of Sool and Sanaag risks escalating into open war. The UN, supported by states with influence on the two sides, should renew diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire and press both to enter negotiations.
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