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Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

CrisisWatch Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

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Trends for Last Month July 2018

Deteriorated Situations

IraqYemen

Improved Situations

none

Outlook for This Month August 2018

Conflict Risk Alerts

Yemen

Resolution Opportunities

Yemen

President's Take

Some Good News Amid the Bad

Contributor

President & CEO
Rob_Malley

Over the summer several long-lasting conflicts have become more lethal. In his introduction to the July/August 2018 edition of CrisisWatch, our President Rob Malley welcomes the exception – the official end to the state of war between Eritrea and Ethiopia.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

14 Aug 2018
There is very little appetite in the region for [an “Arab NATO”], if it means having to make military sacrifices. That would be highly destabilizing to the contributing countries back home. Asia Times

Joost Hiltermann

Program Director, Middle East and North Africa
7 Aug 2018
Sanctions are effective as they have international support. This time around, the U.S. is basically bullying the rest of the world into compliance. There are many countries who would not comply like China or Russia. As a result of it, the leaky sanctions regime would not be as effective as the previous round. Al Jazeera

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran
6 Aug 2018
There is a fine line between politics and economics in a country [Iran] where the government plays such a major role in the economy. But you can’t say that every economic protest is a pre-revolutionary protest. Foreign Policy Magazine

Naysan Rafati

Analyst, Iran
26 Jul 2018
There’s so much friction between Iran, the U.S. and their respective allies throughout the region. There’s so many flash points that a single miscalculation could result in a confrontation that could easily spiral out of control. TIME

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran
24 Jul 2018
Unlike the case of North Korea, enmity with Iran is quite ideological in [the Trump] administration... The more the U.S. threatens Iran, and the more ordinary Iranians have to deal with economic hardships, the less motivation [Iranians] may have for pursuing any kind of radical change The Washington Post

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran
15 Jul 2018
Fifteen years after the change of order in Iraq, it’s the same problem. The central government is unable or unwilling to address problems across the board in Iraq. The corruption is endemic, the government’s inability to deal with it is endemic, and the protests are endemic. The Telegraph

Joost Hiltermann

Program Director, Middle East and North Africa

Latest Updates

Yemen: Averting a Destructive Battle for Hodeida

More than three years into Yemen’s war, a bloody battle looms for the Huthi-held port city of Hodeida. International leaders should work for a UN-led negotiated settlement to stop the offensive and, if this fails, take steps to avoid deepening what is already the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.

Op-Ed / Africa

What Happens in the Gulf Doesn’t Stay in the Gulf

A year after the Qatar crisis began, it’s having potentially dangerous reverberations in the Horn of Africa.

Originally published in The Atlantic

The Iran deal is on life support. Can Europe revive it?

The key question is whether the sum total of what Europe can offer Iran is sufficiently robust – financially and symbolically – to give those in Iran who argue for restraint and continued engagement a chance. 

Originally published in euronews

Our People

Maria Fantappie

Former Senior Analyst, Iraq

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran
AliVaez

Naysan Rafati

Analyst, Iran

Elizabeth Dickinson

Senior Analyst, Arabian Peninsula
dickinsonbeth