Arrow Left Arrow Right Camera icon set icon set Ellipsis icon set Facebook Favorite Globe Hamburger List Mail Map Marker Map Microphone Minus PDF Play Print RSS Search Share Trash Twitter Video Camera Youtube

Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

CrisisWatch Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

CrisisWatch is a monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.

View latest updates

Trends for Last Month February 2017

Deteriorated Situations

none

Improved Situations

none

Outlook for This Month March 2017

Conflict Risk Alerts

none

Resolution Opportunities

none

Reports & Briefings

In The News

17 Mar 2017
It is very unlikely that [Iran's political] system disqualifies Rouhani [from reelection]. Doing so amid concerns over Trump’s policy toward Iran could add instability to uncertainty. The Los Angeles Times

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
17 Feb 2017
The [Huthis] almost certainly receive some smuggled weapons, but these are not decisive in their ability to continue the war [in Yemen]. Voice of America

April Longley Alley

Senior Analyst, Arabian Peninsula
10 Feb 2017
With the [Iran nuclear] deal in jeopardy, the system will be in vital need of Rouhani’s team of smiling diplomats and economic technocrats to shift the blame to the U.S. and keep Iran's economy afloat. Reuters

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
7 Feb 2017
The [recent U.S.] raid ignores the local political context in Yemen, to the detriment of an effective counter-terrorism strategy. Reuters

April Longley Alley

Senior Analyst, Arabian Peninsula
4 Feb 2017
The use of U.S. troops and the high number of civilian casualties . . . are deeply inflammatory and breed anti-American resentment across the Yemeni political spectrum that works to the advantage of AQAP. The Washington Post

April Longley Alley

Senior Analyst, Arabian Peninsula
2 Feb 2017
The longer the war continues in Yemen, the stronger al-Qaeda is likely to get. PBS Newshour

Richard Atwood

Director of New York Office

Latest Updates

Hizbollah’s Syria Conundrum

Four years after plunging into Syria’s civil war, Hizbollah has achieved its core aim of preserving the Assad regime. Yet with no clear exit strategy, the Lebanese “Party of God” faces ever greater costs unless it can lower the sectarian flames, open dialogue with non-jihadist rebel groups and help pave the way for a negotiated settlement.

Also available in العربية

Yemen: A Humanitarian Catastrophe; A Failing State

As Yemen's unremitting conflict continues to drive a nation-wide humanitarian crisis, there is an ever-increasing need to quell hostilities. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2017 annual early-warning report for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the European Union and its member states to rebuild the credibility of the UN-sponsored talks in order to find a durable ceasefire and work toward a political settlement within Yemen.

The Houthis Are Not Hezbollah

Donald Trump wants to ramp up Yemen's proxy fight against Iran. One small problem: Tehran doesn't really have a proxy there.

Originally published in Foreign Policy

Also available in العربية

Trump Can’t Deal With Iran If He Doesn’t Understand It

Tweets about putting Iran "ON NOTICE" are no replacement for appreciating the sources of Iranian conduct in the Middle East.

Originally published in Foreign Policy

Les raids antiterroristes américains au Yémen, une arme aux mains d’Al-Qaida

Le nombre élevé de victimes du raid antiterroriste américain du 1er février au Yémen risque d’aggraver plutôt que d’aider à résoudre un conflit qui est la raison principale de l’expansion d’Al-Qaida dans la péninsule arabique (AQPA) dans ce pays dévasté. Sous forme de questions-réponses, April Longley Alley explique pourquoi.

Originally published in Orient XXI

Our People

Maria Fantappie

Senior Analyst

April Longley Alley

Senior Analyst, Arabian Peninsula

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
AliVaez