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Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

CrisisWatch Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

CrisisWatch is a monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.

View latest updates

Trends for Last Month January 2017

Deteriorated Situations

Yemen

Improved Situations

none

Outlook for This Month February 2017

Conflict Risk Alerts

none

Resolution Opportunities

none

Reports & Briefings

In The News

17 Feb 2017
The [Huthis] almost certainly receive some smuggled weapons, but these are not decisive in their ability to continue the war [in Yemen]. Voice of America

April Longley Alley

Senior Analyst, Arabian Peninsula
10 Feb 2017
With the [Iran nuclear] deal in jeopardy, the system will be in vital need of Rouhani’s team of smiling diplomats and economic technocrats to shift the blame to the U.S. and keep Iran's economy afloat. Reuters

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
7 Feb 2017
The [recent U.S.] raid ignores the local political context in Yemen, to the detriment of an effective counter-terrorism strategy. Reuters

April Longley Alley

Senior Analyst, Arabian Peninsula
4 Feb 2017
The use of U.S. troops and the high number of civilian casualties . . . are deeply inflammatory and breed anti-American resentment across the Yemeni political spectrum that works to the advantage of AQAP. The Washington Post

April Longley Alley

Senior Analyst, Arabian Peninsula
2 Feb 2017
The longer the war continues in Yemen, the stronger al-Qaeda is likely to get. PBS Newshour

Richard Atwood

Director of New York Office
1 Feb 2017
It’s either an empty threat or a clear statement of intent [by the Trump administration] to go to war with Iran. Both are reckless and dangerous. The Guardian

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran

Latest Updates

Les raids antiterroristes américains au Yémen, une arme aux mains d’Al-Qaida

Le nombre élevé de victimes du raid antiterroriste américain du 1er février au Yémen risque d’aggraver plutôt que d’aider à résoudre un conflit qui est la raison principale de l’expansion d’Al-Qaida dans la péninsule arabique (AQPA) dans ce pays dévasté. Sous forme de questions-réponses, April Longley Alley explique pourquoi.

Originally published in Orient XXI

Military Strikes Are No Simple Answer to al-Qaeda’s Rise in Yemen

High civilian casualties from the latest U.S. counter-terrorism raid in Yemen risk aggravating rather than helping to resolve a conflict that is the principal reason for the growth of al-Qaeda in the devastated country. 

Also available in العربية

Trump's Iran Deal Options

Why renegotiation is better than repudiation.

Originally published in Foreign Affairs

Why Trump Should Embrace the Iran Deal

In this video, Crisis Group's Middle East and North Africa Program Director Joost Hiltermann lays out the dangers that the nuclear accord with Iran may face under a future Trump administration and calls for the international community to unite in support of their deal with Tehran.

Our People

Maria Fantappie

Senior Analyst

April Longley Alley

Senior Analyst, Arabian Peninsula

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
AliVaez