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Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

CrisisWatch Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

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Trends for Last Month May 2019

Deteriorated Situations

IranSaudi ArabiaYemen

Improved Situations

none

Outlook for This Month June 2019

Conflict Risk Alerts

Yemen

Resolution Opportunities

none

President's Take

The Rising Risk of a U.S.-Iran War

Contributor

President & CEO
Rob_Malley

In his introduction to this month's edition of CrisisWatch, Crisis Group's conflict tracker, our President Robert Malley reflects on South Sudan, Ethiopia, Venezuela and the rising risk of a war between the U.S. and Iran.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

9 Jun 2019
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stands a good chance of trying to mediate or at least...de-escalate tensions [between the U.S. and Iran] at this point. Japan Times

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran
29 May 2019
It’s time for Washington to rethink its policy toward Tehran rather than doubling down on the failed policies of the past. The New York Times

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran
26 May 2019
What we've definitely seen is a response from Iran on the nuclear front ... and the risk has always been that there would be a response on the regional front. CNN

Naysan Rafati

Analyst, Iran
19 May 2019
Riyadh may not want war with Iran, but there are risks to this strategy of rhetorical confrontation. The Wall Street Journal

Elizabeth Dickinson

Senior Analyst, Arabian Peninsula
19 May 2019
Riyadh may not want war with Iran, but there are risks to this strategy of rhetorical confrontation. The Wall Street Journal

Elizabeth Dickinson

Senior Analyst, Arabian Peninsula
6 May 2019
[Iran has] plenty of options. The problem is, given that there are no off-ramps, and no channels of communication between [Iran and the U.S.], the risks of a confrontation quickly spiraling out of control are quite high. The Atlantic

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran

Latest Updates

How Japan Can Help the U.S. De-escalate with Iran

As Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe visits Iran, President & CEO Robert Malley tells CNN Today that Japan has the capacity to mediate between the U.S. and Iran at a time of heightened tensions. 

Originally published in CNN Today

Europe Tests the Boundaries on Iran

A New Trade Vehicle Could Preserve the Nuclear Deal’s Core Bargain

Originally published in Foreign Affairs

Trump’s ‘Maximum Pressure’ Won’t Make Iran Yield

The one thing Tehran would find more intolerable than the crushing impact of sanctions is raising the white flag because of them.

Originally published in The Atlantic

Our People

Maria Fantappie

Senior Adviser, Iraq (Consulting)

April Longley Alley

Deputy Program Director, Middle East and North Africa

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran
AliVaez

Naysan Rafati

Analyst, Iran

Elizabeth Dickinson

Senior Analyst, Arabian Peninsula
dickinsonbeth

Peter Salisbury

Consulting Senior Analyst, Yemen
peterjsalisbury