icon caret Arrow Down Arrow Left Arrow Right Arrow Up Line Camera icon set icon set Ellipsis icon set Facebook Favorite Globe Hamburger List Mail Map Marker Map Microphone Minus PDF Play Print RSS Search Share Trash Crisiswatch Alerts and Trends Box - 1080/761 Copy Twitter Video Camera  copyview Youtube

Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

CrisisWatch Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

View latest updates

Trends for Last Month July 2019

Deteriorated Situations

none

Improved Situations

none

Outlook for This Month August 2019

Conflict Risk Alerts

Iran

Resolution Opportunities

none

Reports & Briefings

In The News

18 Aug 2019
[A rocket attack on Baghdad's Green Zone] was a way to test the limits of the Americans.Whoever did it is aware that the red line for the Trump administration is bloodshed. Financial Times

Maria Fantappie

Senior Adviser, Iraq (Consulting)
11 Aug 2019
The UAE and Saudi Arabia have allied with distinct Yemeni partners. Yet to this point in the conflict, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh have worked to maintain a relative detente between competing interests in the south. Reuters

Elizabeth Dickinson

Senior Analyst, Arabian Peninsula
11 Aug 2019
The problem right now from the perspective of ending the [Yemen] war is that Saudi Arabia and to an extent the Trump administration are unwilling to do so without a tangible ‘win’ for Riyadh. Los Angeles Times

Peter Salisbury

Consulting Senior Analyst, Yemen
30 Jul 2019
[Al Qaida in Yemen has] become much more focused on integrating with local spheres and much less focused on the brand-name, big-ticket attacks. ABC News

Peter Salisbury

Consulting Senior Analyst, Yemen
25 Jul 2019
Saudi Arabia may feel that they still need a ‘win’ in Yemen, whatever that looks like to them, in order to pivot more clearly toward talks. AP

Elizabeth Dickinson

Senior Analyst, Arabian Peninsula
25 Jul 2019
What the Iranians do have are missiles and local allies, proxy groups. It's entirely possible that an escalation [between the U.S. and] Iran would manifest across regional flash points. Vice

Naysan Rafati

Analyst, Iran

Latest Updates

Iran Briefing Note #8

Iran Briefing Notes highlight and provide context for the previous week’s major events featured on International Crisis Group’s Iran-U.S. Trigger List. This infographic resource tracks developments on key flashpoints between Iran, the U.S. and their respective allies in the Middle East.

America Should Talk to the Houthis

A Houthi missile or drone strike aimed at Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates or Red Sea shipping lanes could spark a broader conflict involving the United States, its Gulf allies and Iran.

Originally published in The New York Times

Also available in العربية

Iran Briefing Note #7

Iran Briefing Notes highlight and provide context for the previous week’s major events featured on International Crisis Group’s Iran-U.S. Trigger List. This infographic resource tracks developments on key flashpoints between Iran, the U.S. and their respective allies in the Middle East.

Iran Briefing Note #6

Iran Briefing Notes highlight and provide context for the previous week’s major events featured on International Crisis Group’s Iran-U.S. Trigger List. This infographic resource tracks developments on key flashpoints between Iran, the U.S. and their respective allies in the Middle East.

How the EU Can Soften Iran-U.S. Tensions

The alarming escalation between the U.S. and Iran risks unravelling the nuclear deal, prompting direct military engagement and destabilising the Arabian Peninsula. In this excerpt from its Watch List 2019 – Second Update, Crisis Group urges the European Union and its member states to de-escalate tensions and maximise efforts to preserve the nuclear deal.

Our People

Maria Fantappie

Senior Adviser, Iraq (Consulting)

April Longley Alley

Deputy Program Director, Middle East and North Africa

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran
AliVaez

Naysan Rafati

Analyst, Iran

Elizabeth Dickinson

Senior Analyst, Arabian Peninsula
dickinsonbeth

Peter Salisbury

Consulting Senior Analyst, Yemen
peterjsalisbury