icon caret Arrow Down Arrow Left Arrow Right Arrow Up Line Camera icon set icon set Ellipsis icon set Facebook Favorite Globe Hamburger List Mail Map Marker Map Microphone Minus PDF Play Print RSS Search Share Trash Crisiswatch Alerts and Trends Box - 1080/761 Copy Twitter Video Camera  copyview Youtube

Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

CrisisWatch Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 80 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

View latest updates

Trends for Last Month September 2019

Deteriorated Situations

IranSaudi Arabia

Improved Situations

none

Outlook for This Month October 2019

Conflict Risk Alerts

Saudi ArabiaYemen

Resolution Opportunities

none

President's Take

U.S. and Iran Cannot Both Be Right, and Both Risk Being Wrong

Contributor

President & CEO
Rob_Malley

In his introduction to this month's edition of CrisisWatch, Crisis Group's conflict tracker, our President Robert Malley reflects on how, in the absence of talks, the U.S.-Iran standoff and the Afghanistan war risk going from bad to worse. In Sudan, however, he sees hope for a new era.

View latest updates

Reports & Briefings

In The News

4 Oct 2019
As protests continue to rage across Iraq, both government *and* civic leaders are responsible for charting a way forward and averting new violence. Twitter

Maria Fantappie

Senior Adviser, Iraq (Consulting)
2 Oct 2019
It has been politically more convenient to lay the blame for Houthis at Iran’s door than to say that the Houthis’ rise was the product of a series of internal political miscalculations and misplaced international priorities. Foreign Policy

Peter Salisbury

Senior Analyst, Yemen
2 Oct 2019
It has been politically more convenient to lay the blame for Houthis at Iran’s door than to say that the Houthis’ rise was the product of a series of internal political miscalculations and misplaced international priorities. Foreign Policy

Peter Salisbury

Senior Analyst, Yemen
2 Oct 2019
The debate about [whether] US should distance itself from the [Mideast] region and reduce its military footprint is important but somewhat beside the point. The more consequential question is what kind of Middle East the United States will remain engaged in or disengaged from. Twitter

Robert Malley

President & CEO
18 Sep 2019
Without a political settlement, Yemen threatened to play a role as a trigger or to become embroiled in a wider regional conflict, in particular if a Houthi or Houthi-claimed attack was successful. Financial Times

Peter Salisbury

Senior Analyst, Yemen
2 Sep 2019
The French initiative is the last best hope for salvaging the [Iran nuclear] deal. Bloomberg

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran

Latest Updates

Assessing the Fatalities in Turkey’s PKK Conflict

Turkey’s ruling party sees recent battlefield and electoral gains as vindicating its hardline policies toward the PKK. But these same policies fuel the Kurdish grievances that keep the fighting going. Ankara would thus be wise to consider exploring ways of winding down the destructive conflict.

Yemen’s Multiplying Conflicts

A Huthi suspension of hostilities in Yemen and an apparently positive Saudi Arabian response offer a chance to avoid regional conflagration. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2019 - Third Update for European policymakers, Crisis Group urges the EU to encourage inclusive dialogue between the warring factions, which can lead to intra-Yemeni negotiations.

Averting an ISIS Resurgence in Iraq and Syria

Once again, the Islamic State may be poised to recover from defeat in its original bases of Iraq and Syria. It is still possible, however, for the jihadist group’s many foes to nip its regrowth in the bud.

Also available in العربية

The Unwanted Wars

Why the Middle East Is More Combustible Than Ever

Originally published in Foreign Affairs

Iran Briefing Note #15

Iran Briefing Notes, of which this is the last of a series of 15 that began on 20 June 2019, highlight and provide context for major events featured on International Crisis Group’s Iran-U.S. Trigger List. This infographic resource tracks key flashpoints between Iran, the U.S. and their respective allies in the Middle East. 

Our People

Maria Fantappie

Senior Adviser, Iraq (Consulting)

April Longley Alley

Deputy Program Director, Middle East and North Africa

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran
AliVaez

Naysan Rafati

Analyst, Iran

Peter Salisbury

Senior Analyst, Yemen
peterjsalisbury