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Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

CrisisWatch Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

CrisisWatch is a monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.

View latest updates

Trends for Last Month October 2017

Deteriorated Situations

Iraq

Improved Situations

none

Outlook for This Month November 2017

Conflict Risk Alerts

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Resolution Opportunities

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

21 Nov 2017
Giving birth to a visible Saudi-Israeli alliance that will deter Iran is in many ways the very rationale for advancing Israeli-Palestinian peace in Washington and Riyadh. Al Jazeera

Ofer Zalzberg

Senior Analyst, Israel/Palestine
21 Nov 2017
Giving birth to a visible Saudi-Israeli alliance that will deter Iran is in many ways the very rationale for advancing Israeli-Palestinian peace in Washington and Riyadh. Al Jazeera

Ofer Zalzberg

Senior Analyst, Israel/Palestine
14 Nov 2017
[Iran's abolition of death penalty for some drug crimes] is a volte-face. The government would surely welcome any measure that could counter the broad campaign by Iran's adversaries to further demonize it. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran
13 Nov 2017
[The ongoing civil war in Yemen] looks like a failure [for the Saudi kingdom]. [Crown Prince] Salman wants a success right now. He’s desperately looking for a success, I would even say. The Times of Israel

Ofer Zalzberg

Senior Analyst, Israel/Palestine
13 Nov 2017
[The U.S. resolution limiting American involvement in Yemen] seems to be the result of mounting pressure on the U.S. government to distance itself from a war that is causing so much human suffering. Al Jazeera

Robert Blecher

Deputy Program Director Middle East and North Africa & Special Adviser on Economics of Conflict
13 Nov 2017
[The ongoing civil war in Yemen] looks like a failure [for the Saudi kingdom]. [Crown Prince] Salman wants a success right now. He’s desperately looking for a success, I would even say. The Times of Israel

Ofer Zalzberg

Senior Analyst, Israel/Palestine

Latest Updates

The Kurds Are Right Back Where They Started

For decades, Washington has been content to indulge Kurdish dreams of independence. Why was Erbil willing to play along?

Originally published in The Atlantic

Also available in العربية

Post-ISIS Iraq: A Gathering Storm

The Islamic State’s defeat is looming, and with it a host of diverse challenges overshadow Iraq’s future, ranging from outright confrontation between Erbil and Baghdad to the demobilisation, disarmament and reintegration of myriad armed groups previously involved in the anti-ISIS campaign. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2017 – Third Update early warning report for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the European Union and its member states to support the Erbil government to exit the current political crisis and encourage security sector reform in Iraq as a whole.

Saving the Iran Nuclear Deal, Despite Trump's Decertification

President Trump’s decertification of the Iran nuclear deal is a blow to this multi-national accord, but need not be fatal. The U.S. Congress, Iran and the European co-signatories can still do much to save one of the great diplomatic achievements of the past decade.

Also available in فارسی

What Did the Kurds Get Out of the Referendum?

The “yes” vote in the 25 September 2017 referendum will not deliver independence for Iraqi Kurds. Rather, it is designed merely to remind Iraqi leaders in Baghdad that it is the Kurds’ strong wish to split off from a country from which they have always felt alien.

Originally published in The Atlantic

Also available in العربية

How to Mitigate the Risks of Iraqi Kurdistan's Referendum

A century-long quest for an independent Kurdistan has encouraged Iraqi Kurds to exploit Iraq’s ongoing crises and schedule a referendum on 25 September 2017. But the referendum is more a reflection of Iraq’s disorder than the Kurds’ readiness for statehood, and the vote’s outcome could exacerbate internal and regional tensions.

Also available in العربية

Our People

Maria Fantappie

Senior Analyst, Iraq

April Longley Alley

Project Director, Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran
AliVaez

Naysan Rafati

Analyst, Iran