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Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

CrisisWatch
Conflict Tracker Gulf and Arabian Peninsula
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Trends for Last Month June 2021

Deteriorated Situations

Yemen

Improved Situations

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Outlook for This Month July 2021

Conflict Risk Alerts

Yemen

Resolution Opportunities

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Contributor

Interim President
atwoodr

To accompany this month’s CrisisWatch, Interim President Richard Atwood looks at the dramatic turn of events in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, the danger of new fighting and its implications for Horn of Africa geopolitics.

Read President's Take

Reports & Briefings

In The News

18 Jul 2021
[Saudi Arabia can] reassert its role, particularly in the charity aid sector, which it always has been traditionally proud of [...] I think we can see [Saudi Arabia] expanding its aid into more Covid diplomacy. Washington Post

Elham Fakhro

Senior Analyst, Gulf States
7 Jul 2021
The Houthis appear to calculate that if they win in Marib, they will have won the war for the north of Yemen while humiliating the internationally recognized president. That is a considerable prize for their side, as it would also allow them to dictate terms for an end to the war. Los Angeles Times

Peter Salisbury

Senior Analyst, Yemen
29 Jun 2021
The good news is that there is clearly more focus on direct negotiations with the Houthi leadership in Sanaa [...] The bad news is that this hasn’t yet closed the gap between the Houthis’ and the Saudis’ positions. Until that happens, we won’t see much movement. Al Jazeera

Peter Salisbury

Senior Analyst, Yemen
22 Jun 2021
There is a realization by both sides [of the Iran nuclear deal] that restoring the status quo ante is not entirely possible. Foreign Policy

Ali Vaez

Senior Adviser to the President & Project Director, Iran
17 Jun 2021
I’m afraid if the deal is not restored by August, [...] a return to the JCPOA might become a moot question. At that point the parties would probably have to negotiate a new nuclear deal. The Hill

Ali Vaez

Senior Adviser to the President & Project Director, Iran
2 Jun 2021
Successive [Iraqi] governments since the military victory over ISIS have failed to integrate the PMF. It has become a force in itself, pursuing its own interests. Al Jazeera

Lahib Higel

Senior Analyst, Iraq

Latest Updates

Iran: the Vote and the Bomb

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez about Iran’s presidential vote this week and what it means for the country’s domestic politics, nuclear talks with the U.S. and Iran’s role in the Middle East.

Arresting Yemen’s Freefall

UN-led, U.S.-supported efforts to reach a nationwide ceasefire in Yemen have made little progress. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2021 – Spring Update, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to send more aid to Yemen, and push the UN to increase diplomatic outreach, especially to the Huthis, the Yemeni government and the Southern Transitional Council.

EU Watch List / Global

Watch List 2021 – Spring Update

Every year Crisis Group publishes two additional Watch List updates that complement its annual Watch List for the EU, most recently published in January 2021. These publications identify major crises and conflict situations where the European Union and its member states can generate stronger prospects for peace. The Spring Update of the Watch List 2021 includes entries on Bolivia, Myanmar, Nigeria, Ukraine and Yemen.

Syria: How to prevent Israel-Iran shadow war spinning out of control

As Israeli strikes on Iran-linked targets in Syria continue, there is always a risk that occasional spikes of violence could escalate into a broader confrontation.

Originally published in Middle East Eye

Our People

Ali Vaez

Senior Adviser to the President & Project Director, Iran
AliVaez

Naysan Rafati

Senior Analyst, Iran

Peter Salisbury

Senior Analyst, Yemen
peterjsalisbury

Elham Fakhro

Senior Analyst, Gulf States
elhamfakhro

Lahib Higel

Senior Analyst, Iraq
LahibHigel