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Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

CrisisWatch Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

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Trends for Last Month January 2019

Deteriorated Situations


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Outlook for This Month February 2019

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President's Take

The Promise and Pitfalls of High-stakes Elections


President & CEO

In his introduction to this month's edition of CrisisWatch, Crisis Group's conflict tracker, our President Robert Malley sees uncertainities in Democratic Republic of Congo and indicators of escalation in Venezuela and Nigeria.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

15 Feb 2019
Both Iran and the US are waiting and hoping for regime change in one another’s countries, but the clock in Washington is running faster than the clock in Tehran. Politico

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran
13 Feb 2019
While many in Europe share US concerns with regards to Iran's regional activities & ballistic missiles program, they don't agree with Washington's one-sided and maximalist view that Iran is the source of all evil in the region Daily Mail

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran
11 Feb 2019
(...) ravaged by years of war, sanctions and mismanagement, the Iranian economy has failed to fulfill its enormous potential, squandering the prosperity of an entire generation of Iranians. Bloomberg

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran
24 Jan 2019
Since February 2018, the Israeli-Iranian conflict visibly is no longer ‘cold'. Fanack

Ofer Zalzberg

Senior Analyst, Israel/Palestine
21 Jan 2019
The risk is that the more the Trump administration succeeds in squeezing the Iranian economy, the less risk-averse Iran will become in the region. The Wall Street Journal

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran
26 Dec 2018
The fight against corruption in Iran has always been subjective and used as a political football. The system is starting to perceive endemic corruption as existential threat and is seeking to at least contain it. The Wall Street Journal

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran

Latest Updates

Crisis Group Yemen Update #4

Below is the fourth weekly update as part of Crisis Group’s Yemen Campaign. This week we look at fighting near the Saudi-Yemeni border and strains on the ceasefire around Hodeida, as well as international developments.

Crisis Group Yemen Update #2

This is Crisis Group’s second weekly update published as part of our Yemen Campaign. Prefaced with a new introductory trendline – this week, fear of famine – it provides up-to-the minute insights into the four-year-old civil war and the world’s biggest humanitarian crisis.

Iran: Preserving the Nuclear Deal

U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal has exacerbated tensions between the two countries and endangered the agreement. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2019 for European policymakers, Crisis Group urges the EU to uphold the deal conditionally and to handle other security concerns in the region separately.

Yemen at an Inflection Point

If Yemen’s fragile peace deal is not upheld, a new outbreak of violence could lead to the world’s worst humanitarian crisis in a generation. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2019 for European policymakers, Crisis Group urges the EU to support the agreement and press for more inclusive peace talks.

Crisis Group Yemen Update #1

As part of its Yemen Campaign, Crisis Group will be publishing a weekly update on Yemen, providing up-to-the minute insight and analysis of the latest events in the country’s four-year-old civil war, which has sparked the biggest humanitarian crisis in the world. This is the first update.

Our People

Maria Fantappie

Senior Adviser, Iraq (Consulting)

Ali Vaez

Project Director, Iran

Naysan Rafati

Analyst, Iran

Elizabeth Dickinson

Senior Analyst, Arabian Peninsula

Peter Salisbury

Consulting Senior Analyst, Yemen