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Iran

CrisisWatch Iran

Unchanged Situation

At sixth meeting in Vienna 10 Jan, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) Joint Commission resolved outstanding ambiguities in 2015 nuclear agreement and concluded that U.S. Senate’s ten-year extension of Iran Sanctions Act in Dec does not violate agreement as long as U.S. suspends certain provisions. U.S. navy warship 9 Jan fired warning shots at Iranian boats that came within 800m of it in Strait of Hormuz, south of Iran. Revolutionary Guards 29 Jan reportedly carried out medium-range ballistic missile test about 140 miles east of Tehran; Israel said test violated UNSC Resolution 2231 which bans tests of ballistic missiles designed to deliver nuclear warheads, at U.S. request UNSC met 31 Jan to discuss test and recommended matter be studied at committee level. Former President Rafsanjani died 8 Jan; over 2mn people attended funeral. Airbus 12 Jan delivered country’s first new aircraft in 37 years. Govt 24 Jan agreed to form trilateral commission to monitor and enforce ceasefire in Syria (see Syria).

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

10 Feb 2017
With the [Iran nuclear] deal in jeopardy, the system will be in vital need of Rouhani’s team of smiling diplomats and economic technocrats to shift the blame to the U.S. and keep Iran's economy afloat. Reuters

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
1 Feb 2017
It’s either an empty threat or a clear statement of intent [by the Trump administration] to go to war with Iran. Both are reckless and dangerous. The Guardian

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
1 Feb 2017
In an attempt to look strong, the [U.S.] administration could stumble into a war [with Iran] that would make the Afghan and Iraqi conflicts look like a walk in the park. The Guardian

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
29 Jan 2017
Besides tearing apart many families, this [U.S. travel] ban is ... turning Iranians hostile towards the United States. The top-down enmity towards the U.S. risks becoming bottom-up. Reuters

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
16 Jan 2017
The [Iran nuclear] agreement's collapse appears neither imminent nor inevitable. What seems more likely is its gradual erosion under the new U.S. administration. Al Jazeera

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
9 Jan 2017
[Rafsanjani] was the pillar of pragmatism in Iran, the glue that kept a desperately divided camp together in the face of brutal pressure from the establishment. The Christian Science Monitor

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran

Latest Updates

Why Trump Should Embrace the Iran Deal

In this video, Crisis Group's Middle East and North Africa Program Director Joost Hiltermann lays out the dangers that the nuclear accord with Iran may face under a future Trump administration and calls for the international community to unite in support of their deal with Tehran.

Taking the Lead

Originally published in Berlin Policy Journal

Rouhani’s Incomplete Victory in Iran’s Parliamentary Elections

Iran’s new parliament has many new faces, and, for the first time, more women members than clergymen. But with no clear victor after the 28 April completion of Iran’s parliamentary elections, Senior Iran Analyst Ali Vaez argues in this Q&A that President Hassan Rouhani will face many challenges and that rapid change is unlikely.

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Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
AliVaez