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Iran

CrisisWatch Iran

Unchanged Situation

Of 1,636 registered candidates for 19 May presidential election, Guardian Council 20 April approved six; most prominent contenders are President Rouhani, head of religious shrine Ebrahim Raisi and mayor of Tehran Mohammad Ghalibaf. Campaigning began 24 April. Nine border guards killed 26 April near Mirjaveh in east in clashes with Balochi insurgent group Army of Justice, which reportedly escaped into Pakistan. U.S. administration 19 April reported to Congress that Iran was in full compliance with its obligations under 2015 nuclear agreement, noting Iran’s “sponsorship of terrorism” and that it was reviewing extension of sanctions relief. U.S. senator 4 April said new sanctions bill, Countering Iran’s Destabilizing Activities Act of 2017, introduced in Senate 23 March with bipartisan support, delayed due to concern over Iran’s May presidential election. U.S. Treasury 13 April said it was placing sanctions on Tehran Prisons Organization and its former leader Sohrab Soleimani over human rights abuses and EU 11 April extended sanctions on Iran for one year for “serious human rights violations”. State media 4 April reported U.S. aircraft maker Boeing had signed tentative deal with Iran’s Aseman Airlines for at least 30 jets.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

20 May 2017
Rouhani's vote [in the Iranian presidential election], particularly in rural areas, shows that Iranian people no longer believe in economic populism and radical change. France 24

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
19 May 2017
The [Iranian] supreme leader is paving the ground for his succession, while a frustrated Iranian youth is seeking jobs and a move away from crisis to normalcy. Bloomberg

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
15 May 2017
A two-way race [in the Iranian presidential election] between Rouhani and Raisi will polarize society and mobilize the electorate. As such, a second round now appears unlikely. Bloomberg

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
26 Apr 2017
American officials habitually discuss the issue [of U.S. prisoners] with their Iranian counterparts on the sidelines of nuclear-related meetings, but [their] fate is not in the hands of foreign ministry officials. Los Angeles Times

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
19 Apr 2017
Both the administration and Congress have realized that killing a deal [with Iran] would put the United States in a weaker, not stronger, position to reshape Iran’s regional policies. Al-Monitor

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
12 Apr 2017
Ahmadinejad knows full well that his candidacy is an affront to Khamenei who had publicly barred him from running. Disqualifying Ahmadinejad is hard, but not impossible. Reuters

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran

Latest Updates

The Houthis Are Not Hezbollah

Donald Trump wants to ramp up Yemen's proxy fight against Iran. One small problem: Tehran doesn't really have a proxy there.

Originally published in Foreign Policy

Also available in العربية

Trump Can’t Deal With Iran If He Doesn’t Understand It

Tweets about putting Iran "ON NOTICE" are no replacement for appreciating the sources of Iranian conduct in the Middle East.

Originally published in Foreign Policy

Trump's Iran Deal Options

Why renegotiation is better than repudiation.

Originally published in Foreign Affairs

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Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
AliVaez