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Iran

CrisisWatch Iran

Unchanged Situation

President Rouhani won presidential election 19 May with 57% of votes; runner-up right-wing cleric Ebrahim Raisi gained 38.5%. Rouhani’s pragmatist allies won many local councils including municipal councils in Tehran and Mashhad. U.S. President Trump 17 May extended sanctions relief for Iran under 2015 nuclear deal while U.S. Treasury same day said it had sanctioned two senior Iranian defence officials, Iranian company, Chinese man and three Chinese companies for supporting Iran’s ballistic missile program. U.S. Treasury 24 May said it is reviewing licenses for Boeing and Airbus to sell aircraft to Iran.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

19 Jun 2017
The strike [by Iran against ISIS in Syria] further complicates an already complex situation. If the US takes measures beyond rhetorical condemnation, tensions could escalate too far too quickly. Al-Monitor

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
7 Jun 2017
It’s the first time that ISIS has been able to strike Iran within its border, so without any doubt it’s going to have significant consequences for the country both domestically and regionally. HuffPost World

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
3 Jun 2017
[The selection of the new supreme leader in Iran is] the most pivotal moment in the history of the Islamic Republic. Los Angeles Times

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
20 May 2017
Rouhani's vote [in the Iranian presidential election], particularly in rural areas, shows that Iranian people no longer believe in economic populism and radical change. France 24

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
19 May 2017
The [Iranian] supreme leader is paving the ground for his succession, while a frustrated Iranian youth is seeking jobs and a move away from crisis to normalcy. Bloomberg

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
15 May 2017
A two-way race [in the Iranian presidential election] between Rouhani and Raisi will polarize society and mobilize the electorate. As such, a second round now appears unlikely. Bloomberg

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran

Latest Updates

Qatar Punched Above Its Weight. Now It’s Paying the Price.

Doha has become a casualty of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates’ fights with Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood. But don’t expect a war.

Originally published in The New York Times

Also available in العربية

Hizbollah’s Syria Conundrum

Four years after plunging into Syria’s civil war, Hizbollah has achieved its core aim of preserving the Assad regime. Yet with no clear exit strategy, the Lebanese “Party of God” faces ever greater costs unless it can lower the sectarian flames, open dialogue with non-jihadist rebel groups and help pave the way for a negotiated settlement.

Also available in فارسی, العربية

The Houthis Are Not Hezbollah

Donald Trump wants to ramp up Yemen's proxy fight against Iran. One small problem: Tehran doesn't really have a proxy there.

Originally published in Foreign Policy

Also available in العربية

Trump Can’t Deal With Iran If He Doesn’t Understand It

Tweets about putting Iran "ON NOTICE" are no replacement for appreciating the sources of Iranian conduct in the Middle East.

Originally published in Foreign Policy

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Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
AliVaez