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Iran

CrisisWatch Iran

Unchanged Situation

Then U.S. National Security Advisor Michael Flynn 1 Feb accused Iran of “provocative” ballistic missile launch and attack against Saudi Arabian navy ship “by Iran-supported Houthi militants”. U.S. 3 Feb put sanctions on 25 people and entities involved in Iran’s ballistic missile tests. In response Tehran threatened sanctions on U.S. individuals and entities and 4 Feb held military drill. Navy 26 Feb launched drills in Persian Gulf; govt 27 Feb said it had successfully tested new marine cruise missile as part of drills. Govt 20 Feb summoned Turkish ambassador over Turkish president and PM’s comments that Iran was destabilising Middle East, said its patience “had limits”.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

17 Mar 2017
It is very unlikely that [Iran's political] system disqualifies Rouhani [from reelection]. Doing so amid concerns over Trump’s policy toward Iran could add instability to uncertainty. The Los Angeles Times

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
10 Feb 2017
With the [Iran nuclear] deal in jeopardy, the system will be in vital need of Rouhani’s team of smiling diplomats and economic technocrats to shift the blame to the U.S. and keep Iran's economy afloat. Reuters

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
1 Feb 2017
It’s either an empty threat or a clear statement of intent [by the Trump administration] to go to war with Iran. Both are reckless and dangerous. The Guardian

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
1 Feb 2017
In an attempt to look strong, the [U.S.] administration could stumble into a war [with Iran] that would make the Afghan and Iraqi conflicts look like a walk in the park. The Guardian

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
29 Jan 2017
Besides tearing apart many families, this [U.S. travel] ban is ... turning Iranians hostile towards the United States. The top-down enmity towards the U.S. risks becoming bottom-up. Reuters

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
16 Jan 2017
The [Iran nuclear] agreement's collapse appears neither imminent nor inevitable. What seems more likely is its gradual erosion under the new U.S. administration. Al Jazeera

Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran

Latest Updates

The Houthis Are Not Hezbollah

Donald Trump wants to ramp up Yemen's proxy fight against Iran. One small problem: Tehran doesn't really have a proxy there.

Originally published in Foreign Policy

Also available in العربية

Trump Can’t Deal With Iran If He Doesn’t Understand It

Tweets about putting Iran "ON NOTICE" are no replacement for appreciating the sources of Iranian conduct in the Middle East.

Originally published in Foreign Policy

Turkey and Iran: Bitter Friends, Bosom Rivals

New frictions in Iraq and Syria threaten Ankara and Tehran’s usually peaceful management of their Middle East rivalries. To rebuild trust and avert open conflict, they should coordinate de-escalation, exchange intelligence and designate representatives to open a new channel between their leaders.

Also available in فارسی

Why Trump Should Embrace the Iran Deal

In this video, Crisis Group's Middle East and North Africa Program Director Joost Hiltermann lays out the dangers that the nuclear accord with Iran may face under a future Trump administration and calls for the international community to unite in support of their deal with Tehran.

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Ali Vaez

Senior Analyst, Iran
AliVaez