The insistence of Nepal's Prime Minister K.P. Sharm Oli on maintaining power marks a potentially dangerous juncture along his drift toward authoritarianism.
Originally published in World Politics Review
Political parties remained fixated on local elections slated for mid-May amid signs of looming economic crisis. Five-party ruling alliance 20 April reached deal dividing up mayoral and deputy mayoral candidacies for 17 key local election races planned for 13 May; several local leaders of ruling Nepali Congress criticised move, claiming PM Sher Bahadur Deuba had made decision unilaterally without consulting party’s wider membership. Meanwhile, fears grew of potential economic crisis due to increase in inflation, decrease in remittances, and growing balance of payment deficit, all of which have created multiple pressures on Nepal’s import-reliant economy. Central Bank 12 April reported that inflation was over 7 per cent (highest levels in nearly five years), balance of payment deficit was over $2bn, and foreign exchange reserves were sufficient for fewer than seven months. Finance Minister Janardan Sharma 8 April suspended Central Bank governor for supposed incompetence and leaking of sensitive information in move widely perceived as politically-motivated given governor was appointed by previous KP Oli-led govt; Sharma 11 April also dismissed concerns of potential crisis as misinformation.
Since it was passed amid deadly protests in September 2015, Nepal’s new constitution has deepened ethnic, social and political fractures. The country’s national parties and protesting groups need to find ways to address constitutional disagreements and underlying disputes. There is a clear risk of escalating violence unless all sides understand that without compromise and good faith Nepal faces an existential threat.
Nepal’s major political parties must urgently agree on a roadmap to negotiate on federalism and write the new constitution, whether by holding elections to a new Constituent Assembly or reviving the previous body.
With the future of the Maoist combatants finally settled, Nepal’s peace process has gained momentum after a long stalemate, but challenges remain, particularly the design of a new federal state and evolving coalition and factional dynamics of the parties.
Nepal’s Maoist combatants urgently need to be integrated into the national security forces and rehabilitated or retired to consolidate the peace process.
The parties to Nepal’s fitful peace process have less than eight weeks to agree on integration of Maoist combatants and federalism before the term of the Constituent Assembly elected to draft a new constitution expires.
Originally published in República
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