Gulf states are competing for influence in the Horn of Africa to control the Red Sea, transposing internal rivalries onto a fragile region. Horn governments should increase their bargaining power with their powerful neighbours, who should recognise the risks their policies pose to regional security.
Amid COVID-19 pandemic, govt accused of deliberately starving ethnic minority, while tensions with Yemen increased over disputed Hanish islands. NGO Red Sea Afar Human Rights Organisation (RSAHRO) 7 June called on international community to put pressure on govt to “lift the deliberate siege and stop the systematic starvation” of ethnic Afar in mineral-rich Red Sea region in south east, where govt has imposed draconian COVID-19 restrictions since April. Inside Yemen’s territorial waters, between Hanish Islands – most of which belong to Yemen since 1998 international arbitration – and Yemen’s Al-Khokha coast, Eritrean naval forces 3 June seized 15 Yemeni fishing boats and arrested 120 fishermen; Yemeni coast guard same day detained two Eritrean ships and arrested seven Eritrean soldiers attempting to alight on Greater Hanish island. Yemeni govt immediately urged Eritrea to stop trespassing inside its territorial waters and to release its fishermen; Eritrea 4 June released around 60 fishermen, in exchange Yemen released captured Eritrean soldiers (see Yemen).
Eritrea’s youth exodus has significantly reduced the young nation’s human capital. While this has had advantages for the government – allowing the departure of those most dissatisfied and most likely to press for political change – the growing social and political impact of mass migration at home and abroad demands concerted domestic and international action.
Change is in the air in Eritrea, a highly authoritarian state, but any political transition will require internal political inclusion and channels for external dialogue if it is to preserve stability and improve Eritrean life.
To prevent Eritrea from becoming the Horn of Africa’s next failed state, the international community must engage more with the country.
The Ethiopia-Eritrea impasse carries serious risk of a new war and is a major source of instability in the Horn of Africa, most critically for Somalia. Following Ethiopia’s refusal to accept virtual demarcation of the border by the now disbanded Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission (EEBC), Asmara unilaterally implemented it and forced out the UN peacekeepers (UNMEE), significantly raising the stakes and shattering the status quo.
The risk that Ethiopia and Eritrea will resume their war in the next several weeks is very real. A military build-up along the common border over the past few months has reached alarming proportions. There will be no easy military solution if hostilities restart; more likely is a protracted conflict on Eritrean soil, progressive destabilisation of Ethiopia and a dramatic humanitarian crisis.
The fragile peace maintained by Ethiopia and Eritrea since they signed a comprehensive agreement at Algiers in December 2000 is fraying dangerously. With a costly two-year war now followed by nearly five years of stalemate, patience on both sides of the border has worn thin, and there are worrying signs that the countdown to renewed conflict may have begun.
A 12 June clash between Eritrea and Ethiopia comes as the Horn of Africa’s two most implacable rivals face a crossroads.
Originally published in Slate Afrique
Originally published in Política Exterio
This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our privacy policy for more details.