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Tajikistan is tightly controlled by President Emomali Rahmon and a complex system of patronage and political repression are the hallmarks of his rule. The government’s elimination of moderate Islamic opposition risks creating an opening for violent jihadists and the country faces growing instability along its southern border with conflict-plagued Afghanistan. Through field research, analytical reports and advocacy, Crisis Group aims to mitigate Tajikistan’s internal and external threats and inform national and regional stakeholders about the risk of political instability and radicalisation in the face of government policies.

CrisisWatch Tajikistan

Unchanged Situation

President Rahmon 1 Sept met Chinese President Xi in Beijing; signed 24 cooperation agreements including $230m in grant, $79m loan for power line construction in rural areas. Former Colonel Gulmurod Khalimov, police commander who defected to Islamic State (ISIS) in 2015, again reported killed in Russian airstrike on Deir el-Zour, eastern Syria 5 Sept. State news agency 7 Sept said OSCE mission in Tajikistan might be suspended if Mukhiddin Kabiri, leader of banned Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan, attended OSCE human rights conference in Poland 11 Sept; Kabiri attended conference.

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Report / Europe & Central Asia

Water Pressures in Central Asia

Growing tensions in the Ferghana Valley are exacerbated by disputes over shared water resources. To address this, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan urgently need to step back from using water or energy as a coercive tool and focus on reaching a series of modest, bilateral agreements, pending comprehensive resolution of this serious problem.

Also available in Русский
Report / Europe & Central Asia

China’s Central Asia Problem

China’s influence is growing rapidly in Central Asia at a time when the region is looking increasingly unstable.

Also available in 简体中文