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Armenia

CrisisWatch Armenia

Unchanged Situation

Special Investigative Services 4 Dec announced it had charged former President and PM Serzh Sargsyan with embezzlement of public money from state assistance program for farmers in 2013; Sargsyan’s Republican Party of Armenia condemned indictment as political persecution aimed at silencing opposition. Prosecutors 27 Dec charged Constitutional Court Chairman Hrayr Tovmasian with two counts of abuse of power during his time as justice minister in 2010-14, Tovmasian said charges were part of “political process” trying to force his resignation. U.S. Senate 12 Dec passed resolution formally recognising mass killings of more than one million Armenians in Ottoman empire as genocide. Defence Ministry 27 Dec displayed new Su-30 fighter jets and anti-aircraft missile systems purchased from Russia.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

2 Aug 2018
The general public sees Mr. Kocharian as a person responsible for accelerating the political stagnation that led to economic decline and social problems in [Armenia]. Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Olesya Vartanyan

Analyst, Eastern Neighbourhood
15 Nov 2017
The [Armenian] government generally supports a deeper militarization of society. The reforms discussed plan to merge everyday life with military service – the so-called 'army-society' model. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Olesya Vartanyan

Analyst, Eastern Neighbourhood

Latest Updates

Old Conflict, New Armenia: The View from Baku

The April 2018 “velvet revolution” in Armenia has brought new meetings and helped improve the dynamics of the three-decade-long conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Much more needs to happen to reach peace, but Azerbaijan’s old scepticism is giving way to cautious hope in diplomacy.

Armenia’s Change of Leadership Adds Uncertainty over Nagorno-Karabakh

Armenia’s new government will likely adhere to long-held positions in its 30-year conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. But the two sides need more direct communication in the conflict zone. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2018 – Second Update early warning report, Crisis Group urges European policymakers to help forge these links to avoid renewed fighting.

Watch List 2018 – Second Update

Crisis Group’s second update to our Watch List 2018 includes entries on seizing a chance for peace in Mali, avoiding escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh, mitigating conflict in Syria’s peripheral regions, and helping Somalia overcome obstacles to reform. This annual early-warning report identifies conflict situations in which prompt action by the European Union and its member states would generate stronger prospects for peace.

For Azerbaijan, Armenia’s Political Upheaval is a Double-edged Sword

Azerbaijan regards Armenia’s “velvet revolution” as both hopeful and worrying. Baku hoped Yerevan’s new leadership might bring a fresh approach to negotiations over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. But, thus far, to many Azerbaijanis that leadership sounds less flexible than its predecessor.

Unprecedented Uncertainty Ahead for Armenia

Armenia's political crisis risks deepening internal divisions and security challenges. External actors should be prepared to offer support but avoid actions that risk the crisis transforming into a broader geopolitical contest.