Balkans

The barricades may be down for now, but long-term peace in northern Kosovo depends on a final agreement between Kosovo and Serbia.

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson speak with Marko Prelec, Crisis Group’s senior consulting analyst for the Balkans, about the elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bosnia’s persisting political divisions and where the country might be headed next.

A pre-election standoff between Bosniaks and Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina has taken an ugly turn, with rhetoric from the 1990s war reappearing. Ideally, politicians would make the reforms needed to settle the quarrel but, if not, the internationally appointed high representative should do so. 

The Western Balkan six – five of the former Yugoslavia’s successor states plus Albania – remain outside the EU as war wounds fester and reform efforts stumble. Brussels should find means short of promising accession to help guide these countries back onto the right track.

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker talks to Crisis Group expert Marko Prelec about the precarious situation in the Western Balkans, as Serb separatism in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the frozen Kosovo-Serbia dispute continue to stoke regional instability.

Crisis Group’s Watch List identifies ten countries or regions at risk of deadly conflict or escalation thereof in 2022. In these places, early action, driven or supported by the EU and its member states, could enhance prospects for peace and stability.

Trust between Bosnia and Herzegovina’s politicians has broken down following threats from Serb leader Milorad Dodik, the most serious challenge since the 1995 Dayton Accords. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2022, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to mediate the dispute between Bosniak and Croat leaders while supporting an inclusive constitutional reform to reduce the risk of violence.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Balkans expert Marko Prelec about the twin crises facing Bosnia’s multi-ethnic state. They ask if Serbian secessionism and a Croat election boycott could lead to the country’s unravelling a quarter-century after its civil war.

The chief international representative in Bosnia has warned the country may break apart if Bosnian Serbs continue moving toward secession and Bosniaks and Croats do not resolve an electoral dispute. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Marko Prelec and Ashish Pradhan explain the two-pronged crisis.