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CrisisWatch Caucasus

CrisisWatch is a monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.

View latest updates

Trends for Last Month May 2017

Deteriorated Situations

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

Improved Situations


Outlook for This Month June 2017

Conflict Risk Alerts

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

Resolution Opportunities


Reports & Briefings

In The News

21 Apr 2017
This society [in Chechnya and the mostly Muslim areas of the Caucasus region] is highly homophobic. Homosexuality is condemned. It is believed Islam considers it a great sin. The New York Times

Ekaterina Sokirianskaia

Project Director, Russia & North Caucasus
12 Apr 2017
The chances for the potential escalation [of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict] are very high. And the conflict will be more deadly this time, since both sides know each other’s capabilities Institute for War & Peace Reporting

Magdalena Grono

Program Director, Europe & Central Asia
1 Apr 2017
[There were] numerous, numerous signals [about detentions and violence toward gay men in Chechnya]. It came from too many sources not to be true. The New York Times

Ekaterina Sokirianskaia

Project Director, Russia & North Caucasus
9 Feb 2017
[Local barons in Russia's republics often] consolidate their positions in ministries, place their friends and relations in important posts and use various corrupt practices to siphon off resources. Open Democracy

Ekaterina Sokirianskaia

Project Director, Russia & North Caucasus
6 Feb 2017
Fighting on the side of Assad is something that Chechens are reluctant to do as a whole. The Independent

Ekaterina Sokirianskaia

Project Director, Russia & North Caucasus
16 Jan 2017
[Ramzan Kadyrov, Head of the Chechen Republic] knows very well that if there is no Putin in the Kremlin, there will be no Kadyrov in Grozny. Open Democracy

Ekaterina Sokirianskaia

Project Director, Russia & North Caucasus

Latest Updates

Looming Dangers One Year after Nagorno-Karabakh Escalation

One year after Nagorno-Karabakh’s violent flare-up in April 2016, the danger of even more perilous fighting remains real. Further hostilities risk a larger regional conflagration with far-reaching humanitarian consequences. Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia Program Director, Magdalena Grono, assesses risks in the region.

Vladimir Putin Has One Reliable Set of Allies: Russia’s Iron Ladies

The president’s useful anti-feminists legitimise a slide towards a patriarchal society – and offer no political challenge to his macho leadership.

Originally published in The Guardian

Nagorno-Karabakh: Risks of a New Escalation

Intermittent deadly flare-ups of frontline hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan demonstrate the ever-present risk of a wider escalation of the conflict. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2017 annual early-warning report for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges all sides to end the violence through support for existing OSCE mechanisms and for mid-2016 agreements between the two countries.

Ukraine Flare-Up Lays Bare Fears in Europe’s East

Renewed fighting in eastern Ukraine is quickly turning into a litmus test of Russia’s intentions in backing Ukrainian separatist rebels, and the real willingness of the West, in particular the United States, to support Kyiv. Fears over Washington’s wavering may also cause positions to harden in the protracted conflicts in Europe’s East, most immediately in Georgia. 

Our People

Ekaterina Sokirianskaia

Project Director, Russia & North Caucasus

Olesya Vartanyan

Fellow, Europe