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Horn of Africa

CrisisWatch Horn of Africa

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 80 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

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Trends for Last Month March 2020

Deteriorated Situations

Somalia

Improved Situations

none

Outlook for This Month April 2020

Conflict Risk Alerts

none

Resolution Opportunities

none

Contributor

President & CEO
Rob_Malley

In his introduction to this month’s edition of CrisisWatch, our President Robert Malley warns of the potential damage that the COVID-19 pandemic could inflict upon the international humanitarian and conflict management systems.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

13 Mar 2020
The transitional government and the international community [in Sudan] must move quickly to avert an economic collapse and accompanying disintegration of the transitional dispensation. France24/AFP

Jonas Horner

Deputy Project Director, Horn of Africa & Senior Analyst, Sudan
9 Mar 2020
The attack [in Sudan] may have the effect of increasing the solidarity between the civilian and military components of the transition. Wall Street Journal

Jonas Horner

Deputy Project Director, Horn of Africa & Senior Analyst, Sudan
29 Feb 2020
Overt Israeli endorsement of a [sanctions] lift for Sudan will provide a key push to the U.S. government. Bloomberg

Jonas Horner

Deputy Project Director, Horn of Africa & Senior Analyst, Sudan
28 Feb 2020
Ethiopia feels that the international community is, in some way, set up to rule against it... and that's why they have been reticent about having third party involvement [in Ethiopia's Nile dam project]. Voice of America

William Davison

Senior Analyst, Ethiopia
25 Feb 2020
This is an encouraging sign that the [Ethiopian] government is prioritizing reconciliation rather than punishment. For the approach to be successful, all actors need to adopt similarly conciliatory stances. Bloomberg

William Davison

Senior Analyst, Ethiopia
21 Feb 2020
An underappreciated dynamic [in Sudan] is the split between the military, who traditionally have a Muslim Brotherhood background, and Islamists themselves. Deutsche Welle

Jonas Horner

Deputy Project Director, Horn of Africa & Senior Analyst, Sudan

Latest Updates

Commentary / Africa

De-escalating Tensions in the Great Lakes

President Tshisekedi’s plans for joint operations with DR Congo’s belligerent eastern neighbours against its rebels risks regional proxy warfare. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2020 for European policymakers, Crisis Group urges the EU to encourage diplomatic efforts in the region and Tshisekedi to shelve his plan for the joint operations.

Commentary / Africa

Mitigating Risks Ahead of Ethiopia’s Pivotal Elections

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy has implemented important reforms but the changes have uncorked social tensions long bottled up by an authoritarian state. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2020 for European policymakers, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to bolster efforts to prevent violence around the elections and support the government’s reforms.

Briefing / Africa

Averting Proxy Wars in the Eastern DR Congo and Great Lakes

Three Great Lakes states – Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda – are trading charges of subversion, each accusing another of sponsoring rebels based in the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo. Outside powers should help the Congolese president resolve these tensions, lest a lethal multi-sided melee ensue.

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Open Letter / Africa

Open Letter to the Friends of Sudan

While Sudan has embarked on a path toward democratic and accountable government, economic fragility threatens to derail its transition. The Friends of Sudan should bolster the civilian-led administration with urgently-needed financial support and call for an African Union envoy to help keep the transition on track.

Video / Africa

Video - A Short Window to Resuscitate South Sudan’s Ailing Peace Deal

Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for South Sudan Alan Boswell recounts what he found during his recent field trip to South Sudan.

Our People

Grace Njuguna

Office Manager, Horn of Africa

Zakaria Yusuf

Analyst, Somalia

Murithi Mutiga

Project Director, Horn of Africa
mutigam

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
alanboswell

William Davison

Senior Analyst, Ethiopia
wdavison10

Meron Elias

Researcher, Horn of Africa
Meron_El

Jonas Horner

Deputy Project Director, Horn of Africa & Senior Analyst, Sudan

Omar Mahmood

Senior Analyst, Somalia
omarsmahmood