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Horn of Africa

CrisisWatch Horn of Africa

CrisisWatch is a monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.

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Trends for Last Month September 2017

Deteriorated Situations

EthiopiaKenya

Improved Situations

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Outlook for This Month October 2017

Conflict Risk Alerts

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Resolution Opportunities

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

16 Oct 2017
[Al-Shabab] won’t claim responsibility because of the massive civilian deaths, but this was definitely [their] operation. IRIN

Rashid Abdi

Project Director, Horn of Africa
10 Oct 2017
[After the lifting of U.S. sanctions in Sudan] there’s been a lot of excitement among the Sudanese middle classes, even for things like getting a cinema. The sanctions have not been effective. The Hill

Magnus Taylor

Analyst, Horn of Africa
10 Oct 2017
The [Kenyan] political elites have really squandered the opportunity to consolidate the country's democracy. We may see clashes between protesters and police. It looks grim. Reuters

Murithi Mutiga

Senior Analyst, Horn of Africa
10 Oct 2017
[Kenya is] in uncharted waters. Both the opposition and ruling party need to show greater responsibility to find a settlement that allows the country to move. Associated Press

Murithi Mutiga

Senior Analyst, Horn of Africa
7 Oct 2017
It is appropriate to offer Sudan incentives and the beginning of a way back to a kind of international order from which it was thoroughly expelled. They had made enough progress, and we need to keep pushing them to climb. The New York Times

Magnus Taylor

Analyst, Horn of Africa
6 Oct 2017
If the U.S. is smart it will use the momentum it has gained in its relations with Sudan [by announcing an end to its 20-year-old trade embargo] and push for further improvements in the conduct of the Sudanese government. AFP

Magnus Taylor

Analyst, Horn of Africa

Latest Updates

Op-Ed / Africa

To Intervene or Not? China’s Foreign Policy Experiment in South Sudan Raises Questions

China’s growing involvement in South Sudan’s civil war differs from its past approach to non-interference, though there is debate on the long-term implications as its role in African, and global, security affairs expands.

Originally published in South China Morning Post

Report / Africa

Double-edged Sword: Vigilantes in African Counter-insurgencies

Vigilante groups have been successful in providing local security. But subcontracting security functions to vigilante groups for counter-insurgency purposes is a dangerous option for fragile African states. African leaders should set clear objectives and mandates when enlisting vigilantes and invest in disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration programs.

Also available in Français
Statement / Africa

Kenya Should Come Together After its Contested Elections

Contrary to the deadly election of 2007, Kenya’s pivotal and highly-anticipated 2017 national and local polls passed without major outbreaks of violence. But in order to build on this achievement, Kenyans must take further steps to overcome ethnic divisions and work toward greater national unity and inclusive governance.

Commentary / Africa

Crisis Group On the Long Road to Kenya's August Elections

For the past twelve months, Crisis Group has closely monitored and assessed developments in the run-up to Kenya's 8 August 2017 election. In this letter to our readers, Africa Program Director Comfort Ero highlights Crisis Group's flagship Kenya publications that have helped inform stakeholders of looming threats and ongoing electoral issues.

Commentary / Africa

Essential Guide to Kenya’s High Stakes Election on 8 August

Kenya’s 8 August elections are rapidly approaching and concerns continue to mount over the prospect of electoral violence. In this Q&A, Senior Kenya Analyst Murithi Mutiga looks at what is at stake and assesses efforts to prevent another violent fallout from the balloting.

Our People

Rashid Abdi

Project Director, Horn of Africa
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Abdullahi Abdille

Researcher, Horn of Africa
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Grace Njuguna

Office Manager, Horn of Africa

Magnus Taylor

Analyst, Horn of Africa

Zakaria Yusuf

Analyst, Somalia

Claire Elder

Consulting Analyst, Horn of Africa

Murithi Mutiga

Senior Analyst, Horn of Africa
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