This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Eastern Africa, about the implications for Somalia of a possible port deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland and the risks of an escalation in regional tensions.
CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Papua New Guinea
Regaining an ally in Sudan, especially along the Red Sea, would be a major win for Iran but will spook other regional and Western powers.
The [Sudanese] army has never had to fight a war like this before and has shown itself not fit for purpose.
There hasn't been a major ceasefire push since the first few weeks of the war in Sudan … It's been a giant mess.
The east [of Sudan] is a powder keg. We just haven’t seen it blow up yet.
If military pressure is designed to push toward the complete elimination of Shabaab, then I think we'll miss opportunities to resolve this conflict.
The concern now is if these Jeddah talks collapse, it confirms more or less that Sudan is basically in freefall into a full civil war.
Zeinab Badawi speaks about the failure of international diplomacy to respond effectively to the war in Sudan.
The Horn of Africa is in turmoil. From the war in Sudan to Ethiopia’s rocky path out of conflict, from Somalia’s fight to defeat Al-Shabaab to the troubles of East African democracies, the pace of change in the region is difficult to keep up with. The Horn, a podcast series from the International Crisis Group, helps make sense of it all. Host Alan Boswell and guests dive deep behind the headlines as they analyse events, debate diplomacy and discuss possible avenues to peace. Produced by Maeve Frances. Episodes from past series of The Horn can be found here: Season 1, Season 2, Season 3 and Season 4.
The Somali government aims to “eliminate” Al-Shabaab by the year’s end, marking a crucial point in its sixteen-year war with the insurgency. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024, Crisis Group explains what the EU can do to address Somalia’s challenges.
This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Ethiopia scholar Christopher Clapham about Addis Ababa’s bid for its own seaport, including its controversial recent deal with Somaliland, as well as the many internal crises facing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
Dans cet épisode d’Afrique 360°, Enrica Picco et Rinaldo Depagne reçoivent Roland Marchal, directeur de recherche au Centre de Recherches Internationales (CERI) de Sciences Po, pour parler de la montée des tensions dans la Corne de l’Afrique et des risques pour cette région en 2024.
Sudan’s war is entering an even more dangerous phase as fighting spreads to the heavily contested east, spelling more atrocities and mass displacement. Diplomats should seize a new opportunity to halt the spiral into state failure and stimulate direct talks between the belligerents.
This week on The Horn, we are bringing you a panel discussion on Sudan hosted by Crisis Group’s President and CEO Comfort Ero at the 2023 Doha Forum with Ambassador Mike Hammer, Ambassador Hanna Tetteh, Kholood Khair and Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga.
This week on The Horn, Alan hosts a roundtable discussion with Kholood Khair, Abdul Mohammed, and Alexander Rondos to discuss the multiple crises engulfing the Horn of Africa and why diplomacy has been on the back foot.
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