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Horn of Africa

CrisisWatch
Conflict Tracker Horn of Africa
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Trends for Last Month December 2021

Deteriorated Situations

SomaliaSouth SudanSudan

Improved Situations

Ethiopia

Outlook for This Month January 2022

Conflict Risk Alerts

SomaliaSudan

Resolution Opportunities

Ethiopia

Reports & Briefings

In The News

27 Dec 2021
When the political elite [in Somalia] are focused on each other, attention turns away from the battle against al-Shabab. The Washington Post

Omar Mahmood

Senior Analyst, Somalia
19 Dec 2021
If [Ethiopian President] Abiy survives the conflict in power, he will likely be thankful to Beijing and Moscow for protecting him at the UN during the war. South China Morning Post

Richard Gowan

UN Director
14 Dec 2021
If [Kenyan President] Kenyatta can achieve a ceasefire that potentially stops a catastrophic confrontation among warring actors in Ethiopia, that would give him quite an extraordinary win. The New Statesman

Murithi Mutiga

Project Director, Horn of Africa
11 Dec 2021
Aid [for Sudan] should be wielded in a way that doesn’t have the military pocketing it or taking credit for it. Al Jazeera

Jonas Horner

Former Deputy Project Director, Horn of Africa & Senior Analyst, Sudan
22 Nov 2021
The [Sudanese] military has shown its cards, it's clearly not seeking to deliver on the transition that people had called for during Sudan’s revolution in 2018-2019. VOA

Jonas Horner

Former Deputy Project Director, Horn of Africa & Senior Analyst, Sudan
17 Nov 2021
There is increasing prospect of the military [in Sudan] splintering and dividing as some sections of junior officers may begin siding with protestors. Al-Monitor

Jonas Horner

Former Deputy Project Director, Horn of Africa & Senior Analyst, Sudan

Latest Updates

Statement / Africa

Time to End Ethiopia’s Unwinnable Civil War

Federal forces have recorded gains in recent weeks but Ethiopia’s brutal civil war may well grind on without a winner. Addis Ababa must let more aid into blockaded Tigray and the region’s dissident leadership should recognise the federal government’s legitimacy pending detailed ceasefire talks.

Podcast / Africa

The Search for an African Union Exit Strategy from Somalia

This week on The Horn, Alan talks to Crisis Group expert Omar Mahmood about the future of AMISOM, the African Union’s mission in Somalia, as its backers search for an exit strategy.

Podcast / Africa

Ethiopia’s Historic Turning Point

This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Ethiopia scholar Christopher Clapham, who helps place the stunning events in the country against the backdrop of a longstanding struggle to establish a viable model for the Ethiopian state.

Briefing / Africa

Reforming the AU Mission in Somalia

The African Union Mission in Somalia’s UN mandate is nearing its end. Despite the mission’s mixed record, its withdrawal could allow Islamist Al-Shabaab insurgents to take over the country. A mandate extension would allow Somalia, donors and partners to agree on a reconfiguration and funding.

Q&A / Africa

After the Coup, Restoring Sudan’s Transition

Mass protests have erupted throughout Sudan following the 25 October coup, prompting backlash from the security forces. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Jonas Horner outlines de-escalatory moves that could reinstate the constitutional order – and reset the country’s transition.

Our People

Grace Njuguna

HR Officer and Office Manager

Zakaria Yusuf

Analyst, Somalia

Murithi Mutiga

Project Director, Horn of Africa
mutigam

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
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William Davison

Senior Analyst, Ethiopia
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Meron Elias

Researcher, Horn of Africa
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Omar Mahmood

Senior Analyst, Somalia
omarsmahmood