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Horn of Africa

CrisisWatch Horn of Africa

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

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Trends for Last Month June 2019

Deteriorated Situations

EthiopiaSudan

Improved Situations

none

Outlook for This Month July 2019

Conflict Risk Alerts

none

Resolution Opportunities

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President's Take

How the U.S. and Iran Can Step Away from a Conflagration

Contributor

President & CEO
Rob_Malley

In his introduction to this month's edition of CrisisWatch, Crisis Group's conflict tracker, our President Robert Malley urges the U.S. and Iran to step back from a dangerous conflagration and calls for the immediate release of our colleague Michael Kovrig from arbitrary detention in China. 

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

19 Jul 2019
The decision by top Sidama administrators [in Ethiopia] to accept a belated referendum meant the zone didn’t self-declare and so a major confrontation was avoided yesterday. Reuters

William Davison

Senior Analyst, Ethiopia
18 Jul 2019
All roads forward in Sudan now run into the Hemeti problem. Over time, his power will need to be reined in, yet any action against him at the moment risks civil war. Bloomberg

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
18 Jul 2019
After today’s violence, the Sidama situation looks like another major challenge for a government already struggling to manage this transition and create conditions for elections next May. Reuters

William Davison

Senior Analyst, Ethiopia
17 Jul 2019
Sudan is not one signing ceremony away from righting itself from Bashir’s rule. A political deal remains necessary to avert the worst in Sudan, but is only the beginning. Financial Times

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
7 Jul 2019
Any agreement is a positive step [in Sudan]. The challenge will be actually getting the military council to do as it promised. AFP

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
1 Jul 2019
There is still no clear path forward that involves everyone on the military council [in Sudan] simply stepping aside, partly because Hemeti, in particular, represents such a big problem. Financial Times

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan

Latest Updates

EU Watch List / Global

Watch List 2019 – Second Update

Watch List Updates complement International Crisis Group’s annual Watch List, most recently published in January 2019. These early-warning publications identify major conflict situations in which prompt action, driven or supported by the European Union and its member states, would generate stronger prospects for peace. The second update to the Watch List 2019 includes entries on Colombia, Ethiopia, Iran and Libya.

Briefing / Africa

Women and Al-Shabaab’s Insurgency

Al-Shabaab, Somalia’s Islamist insurgency, is diminished but still potent. One understudied source of its resilience is the support of women, active and passive, despite the movement’s stringent gender ideology. Understanding the range of women’s relationships to Al-Shabaab is critical to countering the group going forward.

Statement / Africa

Restoring Calm in Ethiopia after High-profile Assassinations

The shocking murders of five high-ranking officials have exposed the gravity of Ethiopia’s crisis. To mitigate risks, politicians should refrain from doing or saying anything provocative, while the federal government and ruling elites take urgent steps to heal deep and dangerous internal rifts.

Briefing / Africa

Averting Violence in Zanzibar’s Knife-edge Election

Next year’s elections in Zanzibar, the semi-autonomous Tanzanian archipelago, will be hard fought. With the ruling party changing the rules in its favour, they could turn violent. The islands’ politicians should urgently meet to discuss levelling the playing field and lowering the risk of clashes.

Our People

Abdullahi Abdille

Researcher, Horn of Africa
a_abdille

Grace Njuguna

Office Manager, Horn of Africa

Zakaria Yusuf

Analyst, Somalia

Murithi Mutiga

Project Director, Horn of Africa
mutigam

Idil Farah

Analyst, Somalia
IdilayBilan

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
alanboswell

William Davison

Senior Analyst, Ethiopia
wdavison10