Des violences intercommunautaires opposant principalement des communautés arabes et non arabes ont ravagé l’Est du Tchad en 2019, et pourraient menacer la stabilité du pays. Le gouvernement devrait ouvrir un large débat sur la gestion des mobilités pastorales et soutenir l’organisation d’une conférence inclusive à l’Est.
Boko Haram (BH) increased rate and deadliness of attacks in west and authorities detained high-ranking officials over corruption. In Lake Chad province in west, BH attack night of 1-2 Dec on army post reportedly left at least four soldiers and thirteen militants dead. BH raid on fishermen’s camp near Kaiga 17 Dec left at least fourteen dead and thirteen missing. On Lake Chad 22 Dec, BH reportedly killed tens of civilians including Chadians, Cameroonians and Nigerians. In Batha region in centre, farmers clashed 10 Dec leaving at least two dead in Fitri. Authorities 1 Dec arrested presidency sec gen and former PM Kalzeubet Pahimi Deubet over corruption allegations; public prosecutor 23 Dec ordered his temporary release on medical grounds. Police 16 and 17 Dec questioned economy minister Issa Doubragne and director-general of economy ministry Houlé Djonkamla on similar charges; Doubragne left detention 17 Dec, but Djonkamla remained in custody end Dec for further investigation. President Déby 26 Dec replaced Djonkamla as director-general. After NGO Chadian Convention for the Defence of Human Rights (CTDDH) in Nov accused President Déby’s nephew of torture, police 3 Dec arrested CTDDH’s head Mahamat Nour Ibedou for defamation and later charged him with complicity to murder.
Les tensions croissantes entre le gouvernement, les chercheurs d’or et la population teda du Tibesti font craindre une escalade sécuritaire au Nord du Tchad, dans un contexte régional fragile. Les autorités devraient desserrer l’étau autour de la localité de Miski, éviter les discours réducteurs et rechercher le dialogue.
Les relations entre une frange de la jeunesse sahélienne et le gouvernement tchadien se détériorent, ce qui risque de nourrir les insurrections tchadiennes hors des frontières. Pour y remédier, les autorités devraient lutter contre l’impunité, y compris s’agissant des proches du pouvoir, et éviter les amalgames entre émigration et rébellion.
Créée en février 2017, la Force conjointe du G5 Sahel est une force de nouvelle génération dans un espace sahélien où se bousculent des initiatives militaires et diplomatiques parfois concurrentes. Il ne suffira pas de fournir des armes et de l’argent pour résoudre les crises sahéliennes. Pour atteindre ses objectifs, la force doit gagner la confiance des populations et des puissances régionales et obtenir leur soutien.
Since 2015, the conflict between Chad’s armed forces and Boko Haram has destabilised the Lake Chad region in the west of the country. Defeating this resilient insurgency requires the state to go beyond a purely military campaign and relaunch trade, improve public services and reintegrate demobilised militants.
Regional armies in the Lake Chad basin deploy vigilantes to sharpen campaigns against Boko Haram insurgents. But using these militias creates risks as combatants turn to communal violence and organised crime. Over the long term they must be disbanded or regulated.
[There are no] significant indications of other violent extremist activity [in Chad aside from Boko Haram], so in that respect, [the decision to include Chad in the U.S. travel ban] is completely baffling.
Rural insurgencies across the Sahel are destabilising the region and undermining local security and governance. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2018, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to continue support for the Alliance for the Sahel and promote local dialogue to buttress law and order.
The West sees Chad as a reliable ally in the fight against extremists in the African Sahel. But it needs to take more care. Chad is breaking prior agreements by spending much of its oil revenue on the military, while social services and good governance have suffered.
The Boko Haram insurgency is weakening in the Lake Chad basin, but its underlying socio-economic drivers remain to be addressed. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2017, we urge the EU and its member states to support regional governments with winding down vigilante groups, funding youth employment projects, rebuilding agriculture and trade, and restoring public services.
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