Les tensions croissantes entre le gouvernement, les chercheurs d’or et la population teda du Tibesti font craindre une escalade sécuritaire au Nord du Tchad, dans un contexte régional fragile. Les autorités devraient desserrer l’étau autour de la localité de Miski, éviter les discours réducteurs et rechercher le dialogue.
In Tibesti region in north, fighting between govt forces and self-defence militia reportedly resumed and insecurity persisted in east. In Tibesti region, where clashes between armed forces and self-defence militia last flared Nov 2018, fighting allegedly re-erupted 3 Oct when army reportedly launched offensive on Arkinia village near Miski prompting counter-attack, authorities denied launching offensive. Clashes reportedly escalated mid-Oct near Yebbibou, number of casualties unknown. Defence minister and army chief 16-20 Oct met provincial authorities and traditional leaders in Borkou and Tibesti provinces and called on them to support govt. Former rebel group Movement for Democracy and Justice in Chad (MDJT) 16 Oct rescinded 2010 agreement it signed with govt denouncing “the massacre of civilians in the locality of Miski”. Several opposition parties called for ceasefire and dialogue. Self-defence militia 25 Oct claimed govt was preparing large-scale offensive. In east, prison uprising in Abéché, Ouaddaï province 7 Oct left at least two prisoners dead after security forces intervened. Gunmen night of 12-13 Oct entered prison in Guéréda, Wadi Fira province and shot dead two inmates. Unidentified gunman 27 Oct killed at least three in Djabalène, Dar Sila Province. Unidentified gunman 28 Oct killed soldier in Abéché, Ouaddaï province. In Lake Chad province in west, Boko Haram 30 Oct abducted three. Electoral commission president 3 Oct said elections would be held during first trimester of 2020. Déby 14 Oct signed decree suspending head of national television for broadcasting speech by founder of opposition movement-turned-party Les Transformateurs.
Les relations entre une frange de la jeunesse sahélienne et le gouvernement tchadien se détériorent, ce qui risque de nourrir les insurrections tchadiennes hors des frontières. Pour y remédier, les autorités devraient lutter contre l’impunité, y compris s’agissant des proches du pouvoir, et éviter les amalgames entre émigration et rébellion.
Créée en février 2017, la Force conjointe du G5 Sahel est une force de nouvelle génération dans un espace sahélien où se bousculent des initiatives militaires et diplomatiques parfois concurrentes. Il ne suffira pas de fournir des armes et de l’argent pour résoudre les crises sahéliennes. Pour atteindre ses objectifs, la force doit gagner la confiance des populations et des puissances régionales et obtenir leur soutien.
Since 2015, the conflict between Chad’s armed forces and Boko Haram has destabilised the Lake Chad region in the west of the country. Defeating this resilient insurgency requires the state to go beyond a purely military campaign and relaunch trade, improve public services and reintegrate demobilised militants.
Regional armies in the Lake Chad basin deploy vigilantes to sharpen campaigns against Boko Haram insurgents. But using these militias creates risks as combatants turn to communal violence and organised crime. Over the long term they must be disbanded or regulated.
Ahead of Chad’s presidential election on 10 April popular discontent is rising amid a major economic crisis, growing intra-religious tensions and deadly Boko Haram attacks. The regime that portrays itself as spearheading the fight against regional jihadism could see all sorts of violent actors gain influence at home if it pursues exclusionary politics and denies its people a viable social contract.
[There are no] significant indications of other violent extremist activity [in Chad aside from Boko Haram], so in that respect, [the decision to include Chad in the U.S. travel ban] is completely baffling.
Rural insurgencies across the Sahel are destabilising the region and undermining local security and governance. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2018, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to continue support for the Alliance for the Sahel and promote local dialogue to buttress law and order.
The West sees Chad as a reliable ally in the fight against extremists in the African Sahel. But it needs to take more care. Chad is breaking prior agreements by spending much of its oil revenue on the military, while social services and good governance have suffered.
The Boko Haram insurgency is weakening in the Lake Chad basin, but its underlying socio-economic drivers remain to be addressed. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2017, we urge the EU and its member states to support regional governments with winding down vigilante groups, funding youth employment projects, rebuilding agriculture and trade, and restoring public services.