Des violences intercommunautaires opposant principalement des communautés arabes et non arabes ont ravagé l’Est du Tchad en 2019, et pourraient menacer la stabilité du pays. Le gouvernement devrait ouvrir un large débat sur la gestion des mobilités pastorales et soutenir l’organisation d’une conférence inclusive à l’Est.
Boko Haram (BH) kept up attacks in west, govt lifted state of emergency in east and north after five months, and wrangling continued over timetable for long-delayed parliamentary elections. In Lake Chad province in west, BH militants killed at least four and kidnapped four in Alom 11 Jan. Suspected BH suicide bombing in Kaïga-Kindjiria night of 19-20 Jan left at least nine dead. Skirmish between army and BH in Tetewa 27 Jan left six soldiers dead. Another suspected BH attack on Choua island in Lake Chad night of 29-30 Jan left three Chadian soldiers, one female civilian and 21 BH militants dead. President Déby 30 Jan replaced army chief of staff Gen Taher Erda with Gen Abakar Abdelkérim Daoud. 1,200 Chadian soldiers 3 Jan returned from Nigeria where they had been fighting BH since Feb 2019. French President Macron and G5 Sahel heads of state including Déby met in Pau, France 13 Jan and agreed to step up military cooperation with France to counter jihadist threat in Sahel. French minister of armed forces and Swedish defence minister in N’Djamena 20 Jan discussed possible deployment of Chadian troops to Mali-Burkina Faso-Niger border area. Govt 25 Jan lifted state of emergency in Tibesti province in north and Ouaddaï and Dar Sila provinces in east declared in Aug following deadly clashes. Electoral commission (CENI) 6 Jan proposed to hold parliamentary elections 9 Aug, but ruling coalition and opposition rejected date saying rainy season would hinder polls. Déby requested CENI and National Framework for Political Dialogue, platform comprising ruling coalition and opposition, to draw up realistic timetable. Police 25 Jan prevented meeting of opposition movement-turned-party Les Transformateurs in capital N’Djamena. Public sector workers 7 Jan launched nationwide strike demanding govt reinstate their salaries cut in 2016 as part of austerity measures; govt 9 Jan agreed to gradually reinstate portions of salaries and strikers returned to work next day.
Les tensions croissantes entre le gouvernement, les chercheurs d’or et la population teda du Tibesti font craindre une escalade sécuritaire au Nord du Tchad, dans un contexte régional fragile. Les autorités devraient desserrer l’étau autour de la localité de Miski, éviter les discours réducteurs et rechercher le dialogue.
Les relations entre une frange de la jeunesse sahélienne et le gouvernement tchadien se détériorent, ce qui risque de nourrir les insurrections tchadiennes hors des frontières. Pour y remédier, les autorités devraient lutter contre l’impunité, y compris s’agissant des proches du pouvoir, et éviter les amalgames entre émigration et rébellion.
Créée en février 2017, la Force conjointe du G5 Sahel est une force de nouvelle génération dans un espace sahélien où se bousculent des initiatives militaires et diplomatiques parfois concurrentes. Il ne suffira pas de fournir des armes et de l’argent pour résoudre les crises sahéliennes. Pour atteindre ses objectifs, la force doit gagner la confiance des populations et des puissances régionales et obtenir leur soutien.
Since 2015, the conflict between Chad’s armed forces and Boko Haram has destabilised the Lake Chad region in the west of the country. Defeating this resilient insurgency requires the state to go beyond a purely military campaign and relaunch trade, improve public services and reintegrate demobilised militants.
Regional armies in the Lake Chad basin deploy vigilantes to sharpen campaigns against Boko Haram insurgents. But using these militias creates risks as combatants turn to communal violence and organised crime. Over the long term they must be disbanded or regulated.
[There are no] significant indications of other violent extremist activity [in Chad aside from Boko Haram], so in that respect, [the decision to include Chad in the U.S. travel ban] is completely baffling.
Rural insurgencies across the Sahel are destabilising the region and undermining local security and governance. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2018, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to continue support for the Alliance for the Sahel and promote local dialogue to buttress law and order.
The West sees Chad as a reliable ally in the fight against extremists in the African Sahel. But it needs to take more care. Chad is breaking prior agreements by spending much of its oil revenue on the military, while social services and good governance have suffered.
The Boko Haram insurgency is weakening in the Lake Chad basin, but its underlying socio-economic drivers remain to be addressed. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2017, we urge the EU and its member states to support regional governments with winding down vigilante groups, funding youth employment projects, rebuilding agriculture and trade, and restoring public services.