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CrisisWatch Chad

Unchanged Situation

Boko Haram (BH) kept up attacks in west, govt lifted state of emergency in east and north after five months, and wrangling continued over timetable for long-delayed parliamentary elections. In Lake Chad province in west, BH militants killed at least four and kidnapped four in Alom 11 Jan. Suspected BH suicide bombing in Kaïga-Kindjiria night of 19-20 Jan left at least nine dead. Skirmish between army and BH in Tetewa 27 Jan left six soldiers dead. Another suspected BH attack on Choua island in Lake Chad night of 29-30 Jan left three Chadian soldiers, one female civilian and 21 BH militants dead. President Déby 30 Jan replaced army chief of staff Gen Taher Erda with Gen Abakar Abdelkérim Daoud. 1,200 Chadian soldiers 3 Jan returned from Nigeria where they had been fighting BH since Feb 2019. French President Macron and G5 Sahel heads of state including Déby met in Pau, France 13 Jan and agreed to step up military cooperation with France to counter jihadist threat in Sahel. French minister of armed forces and Swedish defence minister in N’Djamena 20 Jan discussed possible deployment of Chadian troops to Mali-Burkina Faso-Niger border area. Govt 25 Jan lifted state of emergency in Tibesti province in north and Ouaddaï and Dar Sila provinces in east declared in Aug following deadly clashes. Electoral commission (CENI) 6 Jan proposed to hold parliamentary elections 9 Aug, but ruling coalition and opposition rejected date saying rainy season would hinder polls. Déby requested CENI and National Framework for Political Dialogue, platform comprising ruling coalition and opposition, to draw up realistic timetable. Police 25 Jan prevented meeting of opposition movement-turned-party Les Transformateurs in capital N’Djamena. Public sector workers 7 Jan launched nationwide strike demanding govt reinstate their salaries cut in 2016 as part of austerity measures; govt 9 Jan agreed to gradually reinstate portions of salaries and strikers returned to work next day.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

25 Sep 2017
[There are no] significant indications of other violent extremist activity [in Chad aside from Boko Haram], so in that respect, [the decision to include Chad in the U.S. travel ban] is completely baffling. The Washington Post

Richard Moncrieff

Project Director, Central Africa

Latest Updates

Commentary / Africa

The Sahel: Promoting Political alongside Military Action

Rural insurgencies across the Sahel are destabilising the region and undermining local security and governance. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2018, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to continue support for the Alliance for the Sahel and promote local dialogue to buttress law and order.

Report / Africa

Force du G5 Sahel : trouver sa place dans l’embouteillage sécuritaire

Créée en février 2017, la Force conjointe du G5 Sahel est une force de nouvelle génération dans un espace sahélien où se bousculent des initiatives militaires et diplomatiques parfois concurrentes. Il ne suffira pas de fournir des armes et de l’argent pour résoudre les crises sahéliennes. Pour atteindre ses objectifs, la force doit gagner la confiance des populations et des puissances régionales et obtenir leur soutien.

Also available in English
Commentary / Africa

In Backing Chad, the West Faces Moral Hazards

The West sees Chad as a reliable ally in the fight against extremists in the African Sahel. But it needs to take more care. Chad is breaking prior agreements by spending much of its oil revenue on the military, while social services and good governance have suffered.

Fighting Boko Haram in Chad: Beyond Military Measures

Since 2015, the conflict between Chad’s armed forces and Boko Haram has destabilised the Lake Chad region in the west of the country. Defeating this resilient insurgency requires the state to go beyond a purely military campaign and relaunch trade, improve public services and reintegrate demobilised militants.

Also available in Français
Commentary / Africa

Lake Chad Basin: Controlling the Cost of Counter-insurgency

The Boko Haram insurgency is weakening in the Lake Chad basin, but its underlying socio-economic drivers remain to be addressed. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2017, we urge the EU and its member states to support regional governments with winding down vigilante groups, funding youth employment projects, rebuilding agriculture and trade, and restoring public services.

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Thibaud Lesueur

Consulting Senior Analyst, Central Africa