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Guinea-Bissau

CrisisWatch Guinea-Bissau

Deteriorated Situation

Post-electoral standoff intensified as ruling party continued to contest its candidate’s defeat in late Dec 2019 presidential election. Electoral commission (CNE) 4 Feb again confirmed former PM Umaro Sissoco Embaló as winner after regional bloc Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) 31 Jan requested it respond to Supreme Court’s request to make further checks. Defeated candidate of ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) Domingos Simões Pereira 5 Feb filed new appeal with Supreme Court requesting election be annulled, citing irregularities. ECOWAS 9 Feb gave Supreme Court six days to release ruling; latter 14 Feb denounced interference by regional bloc, rejected Pereira’s appeal, but requested CNE again check results’ accuracy. Embaló 19 Feb denounced ruling, while CNE said it had already fulfilled similar request and results were definitive. ECOWAS 22 Feb called on CNE and Supreme Court to break deadlock, warned it may impose sanctions against actors who hamper resolution of post-electoral standoff. Pereira 26 Feb filed new complaint with Supreme Court. Both sides late Feb took steps to affirm their grip on power: Embaló 27 Feb took oath as president during ceremony at hotel reception hall in Bissau organised by parliament’s VP Nabiam, in presence of outgoing President Vaz and senior military officials and 28 Feb appointed Nabiam as PM; PAIGC denounced moves as coup attempt and PAIGC-controlled parliament same day swore in parliament’s President Cassamá as interim president. Security forces aligned with Embaló reportedly increased their presence in Bissau 28-29 Feb.

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Reports & Briefings

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Briefing / Africa

Security Sector Reform in Guinea-Bissau: An Opportunity Not to Be Missed

A legitimate civilian government, economic improvement and an army that has lost credibility are an opportunity for Guinea-Bissau. Regional and international partners meeting in Brussels on 25 March should commit to finance security sector reform to help the small state move beyond its history of military coups.

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Briefing / Africa

Guinea-Bissau: Elections, But Then What?

Guinea-Bissau’s elections are an important first step, but to address its economic and political fragility, the country needs strong international help, as well as political and military will for reform.

Also available in Français
Video / Africa

Guinea-Bissau: Transition after the Coup

On 12 April 2012 a military uprising ousted former prime minister Carlos Gomes Júnior just as he was about to compete in a run-off presidential election that he was poised to win. Gabriela Keseberg Dávalos, Crisis Group's Senior Communications Officer, and Vincent Foucher, West Africa Senior Analyst, were in Bissau to examine the current situation in the country, the reasons for the overthrow and the priorities of the new transitional government.

Report / Africa

Beyond Turf Wars: Managing the Post-Coup Transition in Guinea-Bissau

International actors need to commit to a common strategy to help coup-plagued Guinea-Bissau implement the security, justice and electoral reforms it needs to escape its status as a link in drug trafficking to Europe.

Also available in Français
Podcast / Africa

Guinea-Bissau’s Transition after the Coup

On 12 April 2012, a military uprising ousted former prime minister Carlos Gomes Júnior just as he was about to compete in a run-off presidential election that he was poised to win. Crisis Group's Gabriela Keseberg Dávalos, Senior Communications Officer, and Vincent Foucher, West Africa Senior Analyst, were in Bissau to examine the current situation in the country.