The Balkans was best known for minority problems. Today, the most bitter conflicts are between parties that appeal to majority ethnic communities. As recent turbulence in Macedonia shows, Eastern Europe could face new dangers if majority populism ends the current stigma against separatism for oppressed small groups.
July saw progress towards organising local election in Mostar and meeting priorities for EU membership application. Following June signing of landmark deal on new statute to govern Mostar city, House of Representatives 7 July adopted amendments to Election Law agreement allowing local elections to proceed in Nov; EU delegation 8 July welcomed move. COVID-19 cases significantly increased in Republika Srpska and Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina entities throughout July with over 300 new cases per day and total of 10,766 cases as of 29 July; 3,000 frontline medical workers 8 July went on strike in Sarajevo demanding pay supplement for overtime; govt 16 July decided to open borders unilaterally to EU citizens. Parliament 22 July agreed on rules of procedure for EU-Bosnia Stabilisation and Association Parliamentary Committee, ending five-year standstill and fulfilling one of 14 priorities for EU membership application.
While the physical scars of the 1992-1995 Bosnia war have healed, political agony and ethnic tension persist. Real peace requires a new constitution and bottom-up political change.
Occasional violence notwithstanding, Islamism poses little danger in Bosnia, whose real risk stems from clashing national ideologies, especially as Islamic religious leaders increasingly reply with Bosniak nationalism to renewed Croat and Serb challenges to the state’s territorial integrity.
Only thorough constitutional reform can resolve Bosnia and Herzegovina’s deep political crisis and implement a landmark European Court of Human Rights decision to put an end to ethnic discrimination.
The international community should start a process to close its supervision of Bosnia’s Brčko District at its meeting next week and develop a new strategy to better help domestic institutions address governance challenges and corruption, while retaining the ability to sanction any attempts to undermine security.
If the leaders of Bosnia’s Serb-dominated Republika Srpska (RS) continue driving every conflict with Sarajevo to the brink, they risk disaster for themselves, the country and the Western Balkans.
Bosnia faces its worst crisis since war ended in 1995. Violence is probably not imminent, but there is a real prospect of it in the near future unless all sides pull away from the downward cycle of their maximalist positions.
Political instability keeps growing in the Western Balkans amid geopolitical contests and increased tensions with Russia. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2017 – First Update early-warning report for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the European Union and its member states to engage intensively to ensure the political space for avoiding more serious crisis does nto entirely vanish in the Western Balkans.