After decades of insurgency, the Philippine government is making efforts to bring stability to the Bangsamoro, a majority-Muslim area in the country's south. In 2019, Manila granted the region self-rule, an important step on the road to peace, but the new autonomous entity faces challenges in managing the transition until parliamentary elections in 2025. Clashes still break out sporadically. Meanwhile, Manila's disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea continue, amid rising U.S.-Chinese strategic competition. Through field research and advocacy, Crisis Group works to support the Bangsamoro peace process and reduce maritime tensions in the Asia Pacific.
The newly autonomous area in the southern Philippines is progressing toward full self-rule, but delays in the associated peace process and renewed skirmishes are causing concern. With donor support, regional and national authorities should work to bolster the transition in advance of crucial 2025 elections.
Insecurity continued in south amid clan violence and militant surrenders, while deadly fighting persisted between military and Communist rebels.
Insecurity persisted in Bangsomoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). Gunfight 2 May erupted between two clans from different villages in Malabang town, Lanao del Sur province, injuring three civilians and one police officer. In Maguindanao del Sur, unidentified gunmen 15 May ambushed National Irrigation Administration employee and his daughter in Shariff Aguak town; gunman 29 May shot former village councillor of Damasulay in Paglat town. Meanwhile, militant surrenders continued. Six Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) members 3 May surrendered in Sultan Kudarat town, Maguindanao del Norte province. Police 13 May formally received 50 BIFF members – including those who surrendered previously – in Parang town, Maguindanao del Norte. Two Abu Sayyaf group members 19 May surrendered to 18th Infantry Battalion in Al-Barka town, Basilan province.
Deadly clashes continued between military and communist rebels. Military operations and some militant ambushes by communist New People’s Army (NPA) in Mindanao Island in south, Visayas Islands in centre and Luzon Island in north killed at least 20 combatants and civilians. VP Sara Duterte 10 May assumed post as head of National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict, interagency govt body tackling insurgency.
Marawi’s rehabilitation continued. Department of Human Settlements and Urban Development 18 May said Task Force Bangon Marawi was set to complete all remaining rehabilitation projects by end of 2023; 500 permanent shelters are slated to be turned over to some of 15,000 displaced families. Marawi Compensation Board 23 May signed implementing guidelines on procedure for compensating war victims for loss of properties during Marawi conflict.
Time has passed since the time of Martial Law, and if you look at the demographics, it is mostly older Filipinos who remember and are opposed to BBM.
Despite its increasing focus on external threats, the Philippine government can’t afford to take the Bangsamoro peace process for granted.
On 9 May, residents of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, part of the southern Philippines, voted in local elections. Organised in parallel to national polls, these contests pitted former rebels against powerful political clans, with an incomplete peace process hanging in the balance.
After months of campaigning, Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., son of the notorious ex-dictator, will take presidential office in the Philippines at the end of June. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Georgi Engelbrecht explains the vote’s implications for the country’s internal security and foreign policy.
The transition to self-rule in the Bangsamoro, the majority-Muslim region in the southern Philippines, is proceeding apace. Militants outside the associated peace process are losing strength but could recover. Regional and national authorities should do all in their power to keep that from happening.
The peace process in the Bangsamoro, the newly autonomous region in the southern Philippines, is making progress. But several groups, including minorities and women, could be better represented. Donors should join hands with interim authorities to ensure that self-rule delivers for all the area’s residents.
The maritime dispute between China and the Philippines is simmering against the backdrop of strategic competition between Beijing and Washington. To keep tensions below boiling point, Manila should push for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea as well as greater regional cooperation.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Crisis Group’s Philippines expert, Georgi Engelbrecht, to discuss President Rodrigo Duterte’s legacy.
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