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CrisisWatch Nigeria

Unchanged Situation

President Buhari remained in UK on ‘‘medical vacation’’ that began 7 May; Acting President Osinbajo and other ruling party leaders who visited him said he was recovering and would return soon. Boko Haram (BH) continued attacks in Borno state in NE killing over 100 during month. BH 25 July ambushed oil exploration team from federal govt-owned Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation and University of Maiduguri, killing some 50 people and abducting unknown number. BH 28 July issued video of abducted university staff, who said they were held by Al-Barnawi faction. BH 3 July attacked military bases in Gulumba Gana, Bama and Dikwa Local Govt Areas (LGA), unknown number of soldiers and insurgents killed. BH 3 July raided Agari and Azir villages, Damboa LGA, killing three. Two male suicide bombers tried to attack university in state capital Maiduguri 6 July, security forces shot dead one, second blew himself up. Multiple suicide attacks (at least one bomber female) 11 July killed at least nineteen in Maiduguri targeting vigilantes working with army. Security forces 16 July killed two female suicide bombers trying to cross security trench in Mammanti on outskirts of Maiduguri. Female suicide bomber 17 July attacked mosque in Maiduguri, killing eight. BH 24 July attacked Kaleri and Alau, Konduga LGA, killing over fifteen people. Two female suicide bombers 28 July struck displaced persons’ camp in Dikwa LGA, killing at least eight people. Suicide bomber 30 July detonated IED in Kosahari village, Gwoza LGA, killing three. Niger Delta leaders and elders under Pan-Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF) 11 July urged federal govt to step up implementation of sixteen demands submitted Nov 2016 to President Buhari. Militant group Niger Delta Revolutionary Crusaders 30 July said it would start attacks 30 Sept as dialogue between govt and PANDEF had yielded no results. Farmer-herder violence continued: Fulani group Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association (MACBAN) 15 July reported youths from Kajuru LGA, Kaduna state in centre killed four Fulani herders; 37 more people killed 16-17 July in clashes between Fulani herders and farming communities in same LGA.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

20 Aug 2017
The biggest challenge [for President Buhari] would be to calm nerves and curb divisions, to rally Nigerians around a common vision for the country and bring some urgency towards pursuing that vision. Bloomberg

Nnamdi Obasi

Senior Adviser, Nigeria
29 Jul 2017
Having been Boko Haram’s best known public face over the years, [Abubakar Shekau] is, in a sense, the defining figure of both the group and the insurgency. Newsweek

Nnamdi Obasi

Senior Adviser, Nigeria
30 May 2017
The southeast [of Nigeria] feels it has been politically marginalised. [...] It has been shrunken from being one of the three major regions of the country to now being virtually a minority. Al Jazeera

Nnamdi Obasi

Senior Adviser, Nigeria
25 May 2017
If the [food] crisis [in Nigeria] is prolonged, the frustration within the young people could make them vulnerable to all kinds of criminal engagements. Voice of America

Nnamdi Obasi

Senior Adviser, Nigeria
7 May 2017
The public impression is that the ailment [of Buhari] is more serious than his aides admit and there are growing demands on the government to come clean on the true state of his health. Financial Times

Nnamdi Obasi

Senior Adviser, Nigeria
23 Feb 2017
[Tourists in Nigeria] don’t want to go to some places… they think twice before travelling by road and sometimes don’t have the money to travel by plane. It’s very harmful for the local economy. The Guardian Nigeria

Nnamdi Obasi

Senior Adviser, Nigeria

Latest Updates

Watch List 2017 – Second Update

Crisis Group’s second update to our Watch List 2017 includes entries on Nigeria, Qatar, Thailand and Venezuela. These early-warning publications identify conflict situations in which prompt action by the European Union and its member states would generate stronger prospects for peace.

Op-Ed / Africa

Nigeria: How To Solve A Problem Like Biafra

Many Igbo feel politically and economically marginalised, and the government’s hardline stance is not helping.

Originally published in African Arguments

Terrorism and Counter-terrorism: New Challenges for the European Union

Despite suffering significant blows in Syria and Iraq, jihadist movements across the Middle East, North Africa and Lake Chad regions continue to pose significant challenges. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2017 – First Update early-warning report for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the European Union and its member states to prioritise conflict prevention at the heart of their counter-terrorism policy and continue investment in vulnerable states.

Statement / Global

Instruments of Pain: Conflict and Famine

For the first time in three decades, four countries, driven by war, verge on famine. Over coming weeks, Crisis Group will publish special briefings on Yemen, South Sudan, Somalia and Nigeria. Each conflict requires tailored response; all need increased aid and efforts to end the violence.

Commentary / Africa

Lake Chad Basin: Controlling the Cost of Counter-insurgency

The Boko Haram insurgency is weakening in the Lake Chad basin, but its underlying socio-economic drivers remain to be addressed. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2017, we urge the EU and its member states to support regional governments with winding down vigilante groups, funding youth employment projects, rebuilding agriculture and trade, and restoring public services.

Our People

Nnamdi Obasi

Senior Adviser, Nigeria