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South Sudan

Since fighting erupted in Juba in July 2016 and a major rebel faction returned to war, rebel groups have proliferated though conflict is much reduced from its height in 2014. The government’s current strategy can secure Juba but cannot deliver sustainable nationwide peace. Of the millions experiencing hunger due to the conflict’s impact on civilians, the UN declared 100,000 in famine conditions for several months in 2017. Through field-based research and engagement with relevant national, regional and international actors, Crisis Group aims to support humanitarian access and build a new consensus around sustainable peace efforts that address the regionalised nature of the conflict as well as its localised dynamics.

CrisisWatch South Sudan

Unchanged Situation

Conflict Risk Alert

Sept 2018 peace agreement held, but could collapse triggering resumption of fighting if President Kiir forms transitional govt at scheduled end of pre-transitional period 12 May against wishes of main rebel leader Riek Machar. Machar 12 April called for six-month extension of pre-transitional period. Kiir and Machar alongside other political and church leaders from South Sudan attended “spiritual retreat” at Vatican in Rome 11-12 April; Pope Francis entreated leaders to keep disagreements behind closed doors. Following 11 April ouster of Sudanese President Bashir, guarantor of South Sudanese peace process, South Sudanese delegation 17 April travelled to Khartoum and stressed importance of continued free flow of oil from South Sudan into Sudan for export. Kiir 23 April travelled to United Arab Emirates to discuss improving bilateral relations.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

24 Apr 2019
Until Salva Kiir and Riek Machar strike more deals on a path forward, the peace deal will keep spinning its wheels. In six months, South Sudan may be stuck in the same spot. Bloomberg

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
12 Apr 2019
More clearly than ever, it is now up to Kiir and Machar if they want to move the peace deal [for South Sudan] forward. Washington Post

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
13 Mar 2019
The [South Sudan] peace agreement is stalling and is at risk of collapse if more political deals aren’t struck. Reuters

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
21 Feb 2019
In South Sudan, manpower is political power. Politicians use peace deals to grow their own armed ranks. AP

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
19 Dec 2018
This is a critical moment for IGAD and the peace process. The response to these early violations will set the tone for the rest of the peace implementation. Reuters

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
29 Nov 2018
Washington was never willing to take a hard line with Uganda on South Sudan. This was the biggest missed opportunity to halt the war early. Washington Post

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan

Latest Updates

Commentary / Africa

South Sudan: Peace on Paper

15 December 2018 marks the fifth anniversary of South Sudan's civil war. To ensure that September’s peace agreement does not meet the fate of previous failed attempts at peace, a broader political settlement that shares power across the country’s groups and regions is needed.

Statement / Africa

Improving Prospects for Peace in South Sudan at the African Union Summit

Talks between President Salva Kiir and former First Vice President Riek Machar in the Sudanese capital Khartoum offer the only, albeit slim, hope of a breakthrough in South Sudan’s brutal civil war. African leaders should offer cautious support during the Nouakchott AU summit.

Video / Africa

Video: The Humanitarian Crisis in South Sudan

Five years into South Sudan’s civil war more than half of the population is either displace or starving. In this interview, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for the Horn of Africa Casie Copeland talks about the enormous humanitarian toll of the crisis.

Commentary / Africa

Keeping the Hotline Open Between Sudan and South Sudan

A UN mission has largely succeeded in keeping the peace in Abyei, an oil-rich area claimed by both Sudan and South Sudan. But there has been less progress made on the mission's work in aiding political mechanisms to determine the final status of Abyei and demilitarise and demarcate the border. As the UN Security Council debates the mission's scope, these mechanisms deserve ongoing support.

Briefing / Africa

Seven Priorities for the African Union in 2018

In 2018, the African Union (AU) and its new Assembly Chairperson President Paul Kagame of Rwanda have the chance to push ahead with much-needed institutional reforms. But the AU must not lose focus on dire conflicts and defusing potential electoral violence.

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Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
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