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West Africa

CrisisWatch West Africa

CrisisWatch is a monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.

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Trends for Last Month July 2017

Deteriorated Situations

Côte d’IvoireMali

Improved Situations


Outlook for This Month August 2017

Conflict Risk Alerts


Resolution Opportunities


Reports & Briefings

In The News

20 Aug 2017
The biggest challenge [for President Buhari] would be to calm nerves and curb divisions, to rally Nigerians around a common vision for the country and bring some urgency towards pursuing that vision. Bloomberg

Nnamdi Obasi

Senior Adviser, Nigeria
29 Jul 2017
Having been Boko Haram’s best known public face over the years, [Abubakar Shekau] is, in a sense, the defining figure of both the group and the insurgency. Newsweek

Nnamdi Obasi

Senior Adviser, Nigeria
20 Jun 2017
The U.S. is worried that a [French] Security Council resolution [on an African counter-terror force in the Sahel] might open the door to funding at a time when cutting back their UN funding is a priority. Bloomberg

Richard Atwood

Director of New York Office, Senior Policy Adviser & Leading on Jihad in Modern Conflict Workstream
20 Jun 2017
There is a strong sense [in Burkina Faso] that the state has never really done much for the north. [...] Strengthening its military presence isn’t enough – they need to establish trust. Bloomberg

Cynthia Ohayon

Analyst, West Africa
30 May 2017
The southeast [of Nigeria] feels it has been politically marginalised. [...] It has been shrunken from being one of the three major regions of the country to now being virtually a minority. Al Jazeera

Nnamdi Obasi

Senior Adviser, Nigeria
25 May 2017
If the [food] crisis [in Nigeria] is prolonged, the frustration within the young people could make them vulnerable to all kinds of criminal engagements. Voice of America

Nnamdi Obasi

Senior Adviser, Nigeria

Latest Updates

Watch List 2017 – Second Update

Crisis Group’s second update to our Watch List 2017 includes entries on Nigeria, Qatar, Thailand and Venezuela. These early-warning publications identify conflict situations in which prompt action by the European Union and its member states would generate stronger prospects for peace.

Commentary / Africa

Nigeria: Growing Insecurity on Multiple Fronts

While Nigeria confronts the humanitarian fallout of the ongoing Boko Haram insurgency and simmering separatism in the South East, crucial reforms have been stalled. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2017 – Second Update early warning report for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the European Union and its member states to encourage the government to prioritise engagement with regional leaders and other stakeholders.  

Op-Ed / Africa

Nigeria: How To Solve A Problem Like Biafra

Many Igbo feel politically and economically marginalised, and the government’s hardline stance is not helping.

Originally published in African Arguments

Terrorism and Counter-terrorism: New Challenges for the European Union

Despite suffering significant blows in Syria and Iraq, jihadist movements across the Middle East, North Africa and Lake Chad regions continue to pose significant challenges. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2017 – First Update early-warning report for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the European Union and its member states to prioritise conflict prevention at the heart of their counter-terrorism policy and continue investment in vulnerable states.

Open Letter / Africa

Open Letter to the UN Security Council on Peacekeeping in Mali

To address growing violence in Mali that is undermining the Algeria-brokered peace accord, the UN Security Council should in June renew the mandate of the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) with stronger political and civil affairs components and a greater role for the peacekeepers in local reconciliation.

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Our People

Rinaldo Depagne

Project Director, West Africa

Candida Borges

Office Manager, West Africa

Jean-Hervé Jezequel

Deputy Project Director, West Africa

Nnamdi Obasi

Senior Adviser, Nigeria

Cynthia Ohayon

Analyst, West Africa

Hamza Cherbib

Research Assistant, West Africa

Mohamed Ag Alhousseini

Analyst, Northern Sahel