Georgia, a former Soviet republic that suffered its own Russian invasion in 2008 and Moscow’s destabilising support for its breakaway regions, is treading carefully on the war in Ukraine, fearing that if it upsets the Kremlin, it may be left to face the consequences alone.
Breakaway South Ossetia reopened crossing points with Georgia proper after three years, tensions with U.S. ambassador persisted, and EU published review of govt’s progress on reforms needed for accession. De facto South Ossetia security council 18 Aug decided to resume functioning of key crossings points with Georgia proper from 20-30 of each month using special passes; crossing points had been largely closed for almost three years following tensions over Tbilisi’s decision in 2019 to install police outpost near South Ossetian village of Tsnelisi at line that separates entity from rest of Georgia. Georgian security service and EU monitoring mission 19, 22 Aug respectively praised opening of crossings, which remain vital for ethnic Georgians living in South Ossetia. New de facto President of South Ossetia Alan Gagloev continued new govt appointments; notably, 15 Aug named Akhsar Jioev de facto foreign minister; 23 Aug named former Russian military serviceman Marat Pavlov de facto defence minister. Tensions with U.S. persisted as Georgia’s ruling party and its political allies continued verbal exchanges with U.S. Ambassador Kelly Degnan over former’s accusations that Western countries wanted “to drag” Georgia into war with Russia; also accused Degnan and other U.S., EU diplomats of supporting opposition; notably, in statement published 11 Aug, four MPs allied with ruling party accused Degnan of backing “the radical agenda of the radical opposition”. EU 13 Aug released Association Agreement implementation report, reviewing Georgia’s implementation of reforms needed for EU accession. Report complimented country’s progress toward closer economic integration but criticised its poor handling of 2021 local elections and other issues that “threaten to undermine the country’s democratic foundations”. Ruling party 30 Aug accused opposition of trying “their best to sabotage” implementation of EU conditions for candidate status. Syrian FM Faisal Mekdad visited breakaway Abkhazia 24-25 Aug, met with de facto president Aslan Bzhania, saying Abkhazia “relies on Syria's support to expand contacts with Middle East countries that maintain friendly relations with Syria”; Mekdad promised to work to further develop relations with Abkhazia.
The Georgian government has been in crisis for quite a long time. Mr. Ivanishvili’s comeback and popular protests are just symptoms of this process.
Over the last three years, we have been seeing a serious decline in the situation in the districts [of South Ossetia] mainly populated by ethnic Georgians.
There was a social media campaign two years ago [in Abkhazia] encouraging people to boycott the funerals of anyone who died after seeking medical care in Tbilisi.
As elections draw near, increased tension at the line of separation with South Ossetia has helped put the future of normalisation with Russia in doubt. But whoever wins at the polls should not abandon dialogue, but rather build on it to frankly discuss these problems.
In this testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs, Crisis Group expert Olesya Vartanyan analyses the conflict dynamics in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the breakaway territories from Georgia recognised as independent by Russia, and explains how Washington can promote stability there.
This summer’s protests in Georgia led to changes to the country’s electoral system. But the country’s new Prime Minister, Giorgi Gakharia, is a man protesters wanted ousted from the last government, in which he led the Interior Ministry. In this interview with World Politics Review, Europe & Central Asia Program Director Olga Oliker and Analyst for EU Eastern Neighbourhood Olesya Vartanyan consider what Gakharia’s tenure will bring, and how the parliamentary elections next year might play out in this atmosphere.
Informal trade is increasing between Georgia and the breakaway territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and between Abkhazia and countries outside the region. Trade alone cannot transform the parties’ core political differences. But talks among them on mutually beneficial commerce could open lines of communication long cemented shut.
Renewed fighting in eastern Ukraine is quickly turning into a litmus test of Russia’s intentions in backing Ukrainian separatist rebels, and the real willingness of the West, in particular the United States, to support Kyiv. Fears over Washington’s wavering may also cause positions to harden in the protracted conflicts in Europe’s East, most immediately in Georgia.
Unresolved conflicts and breakaway territories divide five out of six of the European Union’s Eastern Partnership countries, most of them directly backed by the Russian Federation. But a policy of isolating the people living in these conflict regions narrows the road to peace.
Whether the smooth transfer of power Georgia achieved after October’s bitter election sets a standard for democracy in its region depends on whether the new government can strengthen the independence and accountability of state institutions in what remains a fragile, even potentially explosive political climate.
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