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North East Asia

CrisisWatch North East Asia

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

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Trends for Last Month May 2018

Deteriorated Situations

Taiwan Strait

Improved Situations

China/Japan

Outlook for This Month June 2018

Conflict Risk Alerts

none

Resolution Opportunities

Korean Peninsula

President's Take

Lesser-Known Conflicts Need Urgent Attention

Contributor

President & CEO
Rob_Malley

Introducing the May/June 2018 CrisisWatch, our President Robert Malley spotlights three under-covered crises: Burundi, where constitutional amendments imperil the ethnic power balance; Venezuela, where citizens languish amid economic collapse; and Cameroon, where state repression of Anglophone demands threatens civil war.

View latest updates

Reports & Briefings

In The News

13 Jun 2018
I think Kim wanted to win the hearts [of people] and draw some sympathy for himself and his regime, as part of an effort to weaken resolve to maintain sanctions and pressure. South China Morning Post

Michael Kovrig

Senior Adviser, North East Asia
28 May 2018
[South Korean] President Moon has brought South Korea into the middle of the frame (...) and he again showed Trump the mesmerizing all-consuming media impact that a summit can have — something that’s bound to appeal.”​ Time

Stephen Pomper

Program Director, United States
25 May 2018
Kim is already trying to move closer to China, and further uncertainty about the U.S. will likely make him more willing to offer concessions to Beijing. If Kim refrains from further testing and demonstrates good behaviour, while blaming the U.S. for being unreasonable, he could encourage China, South Korea and Russia to lobby for loosening of sanctions, either formally, or through less rigorous implementation and enforcement. South China Morning Post

Michael Kovrig

Senior Adviser, North East Asia
16 May 2018
I don’t think it benefits North Korea to appear be too much of a cheap date. It ill behooves them to have everyone thinking that they are desperate. TIME

Christopher Green

Senior Adviser, Korean Peninsula
28 Mar 2018
China is the only state willing and able to immediately ease North Korea’s economic burden. Reuters

Christopher Green

Senior Adviser, Korean Peninsula
10 Mar 2018
Regional players need to push for a concrete, achievable agenda, with realistic expectations [ahead of the U.S.-North Korea summit]. CGTN America

Stephen Pomper

Program Director, United States

Latest Updates

Op-Ed / United States

Why Trump Should Take It Slow With Kim Jong Un

Any successful deal with North Korea will require an extraordinary amount of patience and attention to detail.

Originally published in Politico Magazine

Report / United States

Deep Freeze and Beyond: Making the Trump-Kim Summit a Success

The greatest risk to the 12 June summit between the U.S. and North Korea is mismatched expectations. To avoid a return to escalatory rhetoric, both parties should keep hopes modest and adopt an action-for-action approach as part of a four-step plan for denuclearisation on the Korean peninsula.

Also available in 한국어, 简体中文
Op-Ed / Asia

How A Long-awaited Hotline Could Pave the Way For Calmer China-Japan Relations

Japan and China should use a new maritime and aerial communication mechanism to manage disputes with professionalism, dialogue and diplomacy.

Originally published in South China Morning Post

Also available in 简体中文
Commentary / Asia

Korean Presidents’ Meeting is a Memorable Step Forward

Symbolism and substance combined to make the 27 April meeting between the North and South Korean presidents a momentous occasion. Much needs to be done to overcome scepticism from past failures, but the concrete timeline the two countries laid out in the Panmunjom Declaration could lead to transformative steps.

Also available in 简体中文
Op-Ed / Asia

Why China Should Help Solve Venezuela’s Deepening Crisis

Originally published in Asia Times

Also available in 简体中文

Our People

Michael Kovrig

Senior Adviser, North East Asia
MichaelKovrig

Christopher Green

Senior Adviser, Korean Peninsula