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North East Asia

CrisisWatch North East Asia

CrisisWatch is a monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.

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Trends for Last Month May 2017

Deteriorated Situations

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Improved Situations

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Outlook for This Month June 2017

Conflict Risk Alerts

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Resolution Opportunities

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

15 May 2017
China is putting a lot of capital and institutional effort behind the Belt and Road. But it’s not going to reshape Asia in a few years. It will take a couple of decades to assess the impact, if China sticks with it. The Washington Post

Michael Kovrig

Senior Adviser, North East Asia
14 May 2017
The main significance of [China's Belt and Road Forum] is optics: Making Xi Jinping look presidential and effective at home and making China look rich and powerful on the world stage. Bloomberg

Michael Kovrig

Senior Adviser, North East Asia
14 Apr 2017
China likely recognises that Pyongyang's technical progress has increased Washington's threat perception and sense of urgency. AFP

Michael Kovrig

Senior Adviser, North East Asia
3 Apr 2017
North Korea could have been a subject on which China and the U.S. could have worked together to build confidence and trust between each other, but instead it's become a source of deeper mistrust. CBC News

Michael Kovrig

Senior Adviser, North East Asia
22 Aug 2016
[China’s relations with its neighbors have deteriorated significantly, as the region continues to engage in an arms race.] Before, the region was in the process of economic integration, the building of multilateral institutions, and regional governance by consensus. But in recent years, that has all been unraveling. In its place you have an arms race and the building-up of deterrents and the fracturing of multilateral institutions. It’s not good. The Washington Post

Yanmei Xie

Former Senior Analyst, China

Latest Updates

Commentary / Asia

South Korean Elections Sidestep Rising Peninsula Tensions

North Korea’s nuclear grandstanding and inflammatory missile tests, President Trump’s anti-Pyongyang rhetoric and U.S. missile deployments have raised tensions in North East Asia. Our Senior Advisor for the Korean Peninsula Christopher Green looks at where South Korea’s 9 May presidential election fits into these newly complex dynamics.

Op-Ed / Asia

The Philippines' Misguided Plan to Stop South China Sea Tensions

Cooperating on oil won't work - but fishing might.

Originally published in The National Interest

Op-Ed / Asia

Avoiding a Military Showdown in the South China Sea

The Hague’s looming decision on a Filipino challenge to Chinese claims could reverse the region’s collision course.

Originally published in The Wall Street Journal

Report / Asia

Stirring up the South China Sea (IV): Oil in Troubled Waters

The race for hydrocarbon reserves in the South China Sea is aggravating conflicting territorial claims. The regional players need cooperation, yet have increasingly open confrontations at sea. For peaceful joint energy development, all parties need to stop acting unilaterally and do more to understand the others’ goals and limitations.

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Our People

Michael Kovrig

Senior Adviser, North East Asia
MichaelKovrig

Christopher Green

Senior Advisor, Korean Peninsula