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North East Asia

CrisisWatch North East Asia

CrisisWatch is a monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.

View latest updates

Trends for Last Month November 2017

Deteriorated Situations

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Improved Situations

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Outlook for This Month December 2017

Conflict Risk Alerts

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Resolution Opportunities

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

12 Dec 2017
[Chinese President] Xi [Jinping] sees there is a strategic opportunity of Donald Trump having taken America in a different direction and seeing that void, that has led him to ramp up that policy further. Bloomberg

Michael Kovrig

Senior Adviser, North East Asia
1 Dec 2017
Beijing is probably worried that applying sanctions too strictly could destabilize North Korea and doesn't want to take that risk. CNBC

Michael Kovrig

Senior Adviser, North East Asia
29 Nov 2017
No American administration should formally accept a nuclear North Korea, but policy needs to change to reflect the reality on the ground. Bloomberg

Christopher Green

Senior Advisor, Korean Peninsula
21 Nov 2017
[Having his advisers compete with each other suits the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un just fine]. It is hardwired into autocracy to have underlings in competition. Reuters

Christopher Green

Senior Advisor, Korean Peninsula
15 Nov 2017
North Korea has always had an interest in developing sporting talent — that’s not new — but the focus on football seems to be new. The New York Times

Christopher Green

Senior Advisor, Korean Peninsula
13 Nov 2017
An important question is not how the [pro-North Korean] leaflets develop in themselves, but how the themes are reflected in television and print media that ordinary North Korean people can see. NK News

Christopher Green

Senior Advisor, Korean Peninsula

Latest Updates

Op-Ed / Asia

The Future is Now for China’s Challenges and Xi Jinping’s Ambitions

China’s president has set out an era-shaping agenda along economic, security and institutional arcs.

Originally published in South China Morning Post

Commentary / Asia

Rohingya Crisis: A Major Threat to Myanmar Transition and Regional Stability

The international community’s failure to address Myanmar’s Rohingya crisis has resulted in massive displacement from Rakhine state. The crisis poses a clear threat to Myanmar’s democratic transition. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2017 – Third Update early warning report for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the European Union and its member states to support strong Security Council action and push for multilateral and bilateral engagement with Myanmar’s civilian and military leaders.

Op-Ed / Africa

To Intervene or Not? China’s Foreign Policy Experiment in South Sudan Raises Questions

China’s growing involvement in South Sudan’s civil war differs from its past approach to non-interference, though there is debate on the long-term implications as its role in African, and global, security affairs expands.

Originally published in South China Morning Post

Commentary / Asia

The Twists and Turns along China’s Belt and Road

China’s trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative could potentially transform relations with over 60 countries across Eurasia, Africa and beyond. But to bring the concept to fruition, Beijing must overcome mammoth logistical obstacles, navigate fragile political situations and placate growing regional apprehension surrounding its ambitions.

Also available in 简体中文
Op-Ed / Asia

What Will China Do if the U.S. Attacks North Korea?

During a speech at the United Nations General Assembly on 19 September 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that if North Korea threatened the United States or its allies, he would “totally destroy” the nation. As tensions continue to rise between Washington and Pyongyang, is Beijing growing more or less likely to intervene in a conflict between the United States and North Korea? Senior Adviser for North East Asia Michael Kovrig shares his view with ChinaFile.

Originally published in ChinaFile

Our People

Michael Kovrig

Senior Adviser, North East Asia
MichaelKovrig

Christopher Green

Senior Advisor, Korean Peninsula