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North East Asia

CrisisWatch North East Asia

CrisisWatch is a monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.

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Trends for Last Month September 2017

Deteriorated Situations

Korean Peninsula

Improved Situations

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Outlook for This Month October 2017

Conflict Risk Alerts

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Resolution Opportunities

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

22 Sep 2017
China is implementing the sanctions [on North Korea] with unprecedented rigor and determination. But does that mean everything is being followed through completely? Not necessarily. The Washington Post

Michael Kovrig

Senior Adviser, North East Asia
22 Sep 2017
China is implementing the sanctions [on North Korea] with unprecedented rigor and determination. But does that mean everything is being followed through completely? Not necessarily. The Washington Post

Michael Kovrig

Senior Adviser, North East Asia
12 Sep 2017
China views its agreement with the new [UN] sanctions [against North Korea] as a favour to the U.S. and will now expect something in return. Financial Times

Michael Kovrig

Senior Adviser, North East Asia
8 Sep 2017
To the degree that North Korea knows that the international community is going to punish it for conducting its sixth nuclear test there is no incentive not to do something else provocative on Sept. 9. The Washington Post

Christopher Green

Senior Advisor, Korean Peninsula
5 Sep 2017
[South Korean President Moon Jae-in's] strategy [of seeking dialogue to deal with North Korea] cannot possibly survive these kind of circumstances at this time, so he beefs up the military side of things. Bloomberg

Christopher Green

Senior Advisor, Korean Peninsula
3 Sep 2017
China sees sanctions as punishment for bad behaviour rather than an effective means of achieving disarmament [of North Korea]. Financial Times

Michael Kovrig

Senior Adviser, North East Asia

Latest Updates

Op-Ed / Africa

To Intervene or Not? China’s Foreign Policy Experiment in South Sudan Raises Questions

China’s growing involvement in South Sudan’s civil war differs from its past approach to non-interference, though there is debate on the long-term implications as its role in African, and global, security affairs expands.

Originally published in South China Morning Post

Commentary / Asia

The Twists and Turns along China’s Belt and Road

China’s trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative could potentially transform relations with over 60 countries across Eurasia, Africa and beyond. But to bring the concept to fruition, Beijing must overcome mammoth logistical obstacles, navigate fragile political situations and placate growing regional apprehension surrounding its ambitions.

Also available in 简体中文
Op-Ed / Asia

What Will China Do if the U.S. Attacks North Korea?

During a speech at the United Nations General Assembly on 19 September 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that if North Korea threatened the United States or its allies, he would “totally destroy” the nation. As tensions continue to rise between Washington and Pyongyang, is Beijing growing more or less likely to intervene in a conflict between the United States and North Korea? Senior Adviser for North East Asia Michael Kovrig shares his view with ChinaFile.

Originally published in ChinaFile

Commentary / Asia

The Strategic Thinking behind North Korea’s Missile Gambit

North Korea’s launch of a missile over Japan was irresponsible – yet it was more of a carefully calculated risk than a reckless gamble. Pyongyang’s goal is not a shooting war but to build up military and nuclear capabilities that serve strategic aims of survival and force protection.

Central Asia’s Silk Road Rivalries

China and Russia's separate visions for Central Asia could transform the region’s political and economic landscape as well as relations between the two Eurasian giants. To the smaller, embryonic Central Asian nation states, the new geopolitical realities could offer both economic prosperity as well as worsening instability and conflict.

Also available in Русский, 简体中文

Our People

Michael Kovrig

Senior Adviser, North East Asia
MichaelKovrig

Christopher Green

Senior Advisor, Korean Peninsula