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Egypt

Since a July 2013 military coup, Egypt has sought to reassert state authority undermined by the 2011 uprising at the expense of political inclusion, especially of the Muslim Brotherhood. The resulting polarisation has encouraged mounting political violence from the Islamic State (ISIS) and other violent groups, particularly in the Sinai Peninsula where a low-level insurgency has raged. In the Nile Valley, in 2017, ISIS has targeted the Coptic Christian minority, while al-Qaeda affiliates and other groups tied to the Brotherhood have targeted security forces. Crisis Group is urging the government to be more inclusive and address widespread violations of human and political rights, especially ahead of presidential elections scheduled for May 2018, to better address security and economic challenges.

CrisisWatch Egypt

Unchanged Situation

Parliament continued constitutional amendment process to extend presidential mandate and increase term limits amid ongoing repression of dissenting voices. Following 14 Feb vote to begin deliberation on constitution, parliament 20-28 March held hearings with religious, economic, social and political representatives to propose changes. Constitutional and Legislative Affairs Committee to draft constitutional articles according to proposed amendments and submit them to vote in parliament by mid-April, followed by national referendum. In Sinai, military 11 March reported 46 Islamic State (ISIS) militants and three soldiers killed, without disclosing dates or locations. In Cairo, prosecutors 25 March referred 28 people to court on charges of joining ISIS and al-Qaeda; 30 March sentenced 30 alleged ISIS members over plot to attack church. Repression intensified after protests over govt response to 28 Feb train crash: authorities 28 Feb-3 March arrested 70 people in Cairo, Giza, Alexandria and Beheira; 4 March released ten and 7 March charged 35 with terrorism and spreading false news. Human rights groups 13-16 March denounced police torture of two transgender activists. Exiled television commentator Moataz Matar 4 March accused authorities of abducting eight of his family members.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

25 Mar 2018
For [the Egyptian government], development and economic growth come after the ISIS problem is resolved, and that is taking much longer than they anticipated. Al Jazeera

Issandr El Amrani

Former Project Director, North Africa
8 Mar 2018
While [Sudan] wants to show [its] independence from Egypt on the diplomatic front, [it] can’t afford to have a more powerful enemy, such as Egypt, that can affect [its] relationship with the Gulf states. MadaMasr

Magnus Taylor

Former Analyst, Horn of Africa
26 Feb 2018
What you are seeing [among the nations along the Nile] is a proxy conflict of who should be the regional hegemon, Egypt or Ethiopia. The Daily Free Press

Rashid Abdi

Project Director, Horn of Africa
3 Feb 2018
[Egypt's President] Sisi's appointment as minister of defence in 2012 was partly predicated on a move to sideline [Retired Egyptian General Sami Hafez]. The Sydney Morning Herald

Issandr El Amrani

Former Project Director, North Africa
19 Jan 2018
[The dispute about future management of the Nile] is a proxy conflict over who should be the regional hegemon, Egypt or Ethiopia. World Politics Review

Rashid Abdi

Project Director, Horn of Africa
14 Jan 2018
Egyptian-Israeli relations are today at their highest level in history. Al Bawaba

Nathan Thrall

Project Director, Arab-Israeli Conflict

Latest Updates

Tackling the MENA Region’s Intersecting Conflicts

How can the dizzying changes, intersecting crises and multiplying conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa since the 2011 Arab uprisings be best understood, let alone responded to? This long-form commentary by MENA Program Director Joost Hiltermann and our team steps back for a better look and proposes new approaches.

Also available in العربية

Keeping Egypt’s Politics on the Agenda

Still grappling with its post-2011 turbulence, Egypt's economy and politics require urgent stabilisation. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2017 – First Update early-warning report for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the European Union and its member states to balance support for Egypt's economic reform with a strategy that seeks to fix the country's broken political system.

Open Letter to Chancellor Merkel

Uncritical engagement with Egypt will not promote European interests, says European Working Group on Egypt ahead of Chancellor Merkel's visit to Cairo.