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Andes

CrisisWatch Andes

CrisisWatch is a monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.

View latest updates

Trends for Last Month October 2017

Deteriorated Situations

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Improved Situations

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Outlook for This Month November 2017

Conflict Risk Alerts

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Resolution Opportunities

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

12 Nov 2017
La realidad socioeconómica de Colombia no ha cambiado desde la firma del acuerdo [sobre sustitución de la coca formalizado en 2014]. Existen grupos armados interesados en controlar la coca, la minería ilegal o la extorsión. Diario de Cuba

Ivan Briscoe

Program Director, Latin America and Caribbean
12 Nov 2017
Antes de[l pacto de alto el] fuego con el gobierno [colombiano], que termina en enero, el [Ejército de Liberación Nacional] se estaba expandiendo hacia nuevas regiones, como el área del Pacífico. Es parte de una estrategia para ganar cierto poder en la mesa de negociación. Infobae

Ivan Briscoe

Program Director, Latin America and Caribbean
9 Nov 2017
[Colombian armed groups] offer quite an outlet for frustrated Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) members, for whom the peace agreements are not living up to expectations. The World Weekly

Kyle Johnson

Senior Analyst, Colombia
16 Aug 2017
There is malaria now even in urban areas [of Venezuela]. The government's anti-malaria programme has effectively been dismantled. Al Jazeera

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
7 Aug 2017
It’s very hard to create critical mass [in Venezuela] without being found out. In an era of instant digital communications, authorities can be alerted to the risk of destabilization very quickly. AP

Ivan Briscoe

Program Director, Latin America and Caribbean
5 Aug 2017
Should [violent] events recur, Venezuela’s political conflict could morph into a low-intensity civil war. The Guardian

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes

Latest Updates

Colombia’s Coca Boom

Over the last seven years, the government of Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos has worked strenuously to dissociate the country from its image as a cocaine exporter. In 2016, Santos struck a peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the guerrilla group that for years stood watch over coca farms and had become the wholesaler and arbiter of the cocaine trafficking business.

Originally published in Foreign Affairs

Peace and Coca Compete in Colombia's Periphery

One of the most pressing security threats in Colombia following the signing of the the FARC peace agreement is fighting between armed groups trying to gain control over territories and illegal business, such as coca production, previously dominated by the FARC. In this video, Senior Analyst for Colombia Kyle Johnson and Latin America Program Director Ivan Briscoe highlight main findings of Crisis Group's report Colombia’s Armed Groups and the Fight for the Spoils of Peace. 

Final Curtain for Venezuela’s Democracy as Parliament is Dissolved

The Venezuelan government has dissolved the elected, opposition-led parliament and initiated de facto rule. Foreign governments and multilateral organisations should regard all government actions carried out in contravention of the 1999 constitution as invalid and press the government to take urgent steps toward the restoration of democracy.

Also available in Español

Venezuela: “Zero hour”

As the Venezuelan government prepares to create an all-powerful constituent assembly to replace the country’s democracy, unrest is likely to reach new levels of violence. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2017 – Second Update early warning report for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the European Union and its member states to support regional actors’ efforts to bring about genuine negotiations while insisting on the restoration of constitutional rule.

Watch List 2017 – Second Update

Crisis Group’s second update to our Watch List 2017 includes entries on Nigeria, Qatar, Thailand and Venezuela. These early-warning publications identify conflict situations in which prompt action by the European Union and its member states would generate stronger prospects for peace.

Our People

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
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Kyle Johnson

Senior Analyst, Colombia
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