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Andes

CrisisWatch Andes

CrisisWatch is a monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.

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Trends for Last Month February 2017

Deteriorated Situations

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Improved Situations

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Outlook for This Month March 2017

Conflict Risk Alerts

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Resolution Opportunities

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

28 Mar 2017
[The FARC rebel leader] “Pollo” wanted to return to the peace process since at least January, and in March he submitted a list of 333 dissident militia members who wanted to surrender. Colombia Reports

Kyle Johnson

Senior Analyst, Colombia
25 Mar 2017
The [Venezuelan] government controls nearly all levers of power while the opposition has the support of the voters. That's why the opposition needs to have elections and why the government doesn't. CBC News

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
1 Mar 2017
If you live in a poor area [in Caracas], you have to get up so early in the morning to leave your house – and many robberies and assaults take place in the early dawn. The Guardian

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
7 Feb 2017
The ELN [in Colombia] has still not renounced kidnapping. They might kidnap someone else in the future and we'll be back in the same difficulties. AFP

Kyle Johnson

Senior Analyst, Colombia
12 Nov 2016
Not everyone is going to be happy, but I still expect there to be a positive reaction in general [to the revised Colombian peace deal]. We do have an agreement, and I would expect there to be more political pressure on the opposition to accept this new agreement as well. Al Jazeera

Kyle Johnson

Senior Analyst, Colombia
27 Oct 2016
The peaceful electoral solution has been taken off the table so what's left to the opposition is to put as much pressure as they can [on President Maduro of Venezuela] in order to persuade the army to change sides and to invite international pressure. BBC Radio 5

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes

Latest Updates

A Wary Farewell to Arms for the FARC

Since Colombia ratified a revised peace accord to end the country’s long insurgency, FARC rebels have moved rapidly to ad hoc cantonment sites where they will demobilise under UN supervision. But the FARC leadership’s commitment to the deal is under pressure from disparate elements in its rank and file.

Venezuela: A Regional Solution to the Political Standoff

Facing social and economic collapse, Venezuela is likely to continue to be Latin America's most urgent crisis in 2017. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2017 annual early-warning report for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the European Union and its member states to work closely with governments in the region, particularly Caribbean nations with close ties to Caracas, toward the restoration of democracy in Venezuela.

El oscuro futuro de la negociación con el ELN

El anuncio de la instalación de la mesa ha producido mucha expectativa, pero el tiempo para negociar parece ser muy corto y la inmadurez política que ha demostrado esta guerrilla podría complicar aún más el panorama.  
 

Originally published in Razon Publica

Venezuela Is Falling off the Map

Beset by relentless hyperinflation, collapsing public services and increasingly dictatorial rule, Venezuela is at risk of becoming a failed state. The best hope for change lies with neighbouring countries, which must sustain pressure to find a solution.

Also available in Español

Our People

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
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Kyle Johnson

Senior Analyst, Colombia
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