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Andes

CrisisWatch Andes

CrisisWatch is a monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.

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Trends for Last Month June 2017

Deteriorated Situations

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Improved Situations

Colombia

Outlook for This Month July 2017

Conflict Risk Alerts

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Resolution Opportunities

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

28 Jun 2017
There is a [...] belief in Colombia that if you are an illegal armed group without a particular ideology, fighting the state would be enough to pressure the government into entering a peace process. IRIN News

Kyle Johnson

Senior Analyst, Colombia
28 Jun 2017
But so far that discontent [within Venezuela's armed forces] has not translated into a split in the armed forces, and this is clearly what everybody's waiting for. Al Jazeera

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
24 Jun 2017
The opposition [in Venezuela] knows perfectly well that they would lose a violent struggle. If they start shooting back, everything is over. So the violence on the opposition side is reactive. Al Jazeera

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
14 Jun 2017
The election [of Venezuela's Constitutional Assembly] planned for July 30 could be a trigger point leading to a sharp escalation of violence. The Washington Post

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
13 Jun 2017
For the FARC, the subject of money has always touched a nerve. If it's shown they have a lot of wealth, it adds fuel to the narrative that they are simply drug traffickers. AP

Kyle Johnson

Senior Analyst, Colombia
24 May 2017
The more people die [in Venezuela], the more the anger grows and the more willing the [Venezuelan] government becomes to respond even more violently. The Washington Post

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes

Latest Updates

Venezuela: “Zero hour”

As the Venezuelan government prepares to create an all-powerful constituent assembly to replace the country’s democracy, unrest is likely to reach new levels of violence. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2017 – Second Update early warning report for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the European Union and its member states to support regional actors’ efforts to bring about genuine negotiations while insisting on the restoration of constitutional rule.

Watch List 2017 – Second Update

Crisis Group’s second update to our Watch List 2017 includes entries on Nigeria, Qatar, Thailand and Venezuela. These early-warning publications identify conflict situations in which prompt action by the European Union and its member states would generate stronger prospects for peace.

Rebuilding Colombia’s Trust in the Peace Process

In this video, our Senior Analyst for Colombia, Kyle Johnson, highlights the main findings of Crisis Group’s report “In the Shadow of “No”: Peace after Colombia’s Plebiscite”. Johnson argues that rebuilding Colombian public’s trust will need swift and effective implementation of the revised peace agreement - including full apologies for past crimes and the visible handover of weapons by insurgents. 

Shaping the Peace Process in Colombia

Colombia’s 2016 peace accord was a spectacular breakthrough after five decades of war. It was also an outcome Crisis Group helped work for during 15 years of Bogotá-based research and advocacy, including 36 reports and briefings, 91 op-eds and commentaries and more than 500 meetings with all parties.

Colombia’s FARC Ends its 53-year Insurgency

With the official disarming of its main rebel organisation, Colombia has passed a remarkable new milestone in its peace process. But major challenges remain: the destruction of remote arms dumps, reintegration of ex-combatants, and progress towards peace with other armed groups.

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Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
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Kyle Johnson

Senior Analyst, Colombia
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