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Andes

CrisisWatch Andes

CrisisWatch is a monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.

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Trends for Last Month January 2017

Deteriorated Situations

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Improved Situations

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Outlook for This Month February 2017

Conflict Risk Alerts

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Resolution Opportunities

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

7 Feb 2017
The ELN [in Colombia] has still not renounced kidnapping. They might kidnap someone else in the future and we'll be back in the same difficulties. AFP

Kyle Johnson

Senior Analyst, Colombia
12 Nov 2016
Not everyone is going to be happy, but I still expect there to be a positive reaction in general [to the revised Colombian peace deal]. We do have an agreement, and I would expect there to be more political pressure on the opposition to accept this new agreement as well. Al Jazeera

Kyle Johnson

Senior Analyst, Colombia
27 Oct 2016
The peaceful electoral solution has been taken off the table so what's left to the opposition is to put as much pressure as they can [on President Maduro of Venezuela] in order to persuade the army to change sides and to invite international pressure. BBC Radio 5

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
6 Oct 2016
It's highly unlikely Colombia will achieve peace if Santos and Uribe themselves don't make peace. AFP

Kyle Johnson

Senior Analyst, Colombia
26 Sep 2016
[En Colombia], la restitución de tierras topará, en primer lugar, con la falta de infraestructura institucional y, en segundo, con la dificultad de encontrar los terrenos que se prevé repartir La Vanguardia

Kyle Johnson

Senior Analyst, Colombia
25 Sep 2016
El precio de acceder a penas reducidas es una colaboración plena y voluntaria con la Jurisdicción Especial para la Paz, es decir, lo que se pierde en términos de castigo se ganará en verdad. El Independiente

Ivan Briscoe

Program Director, Latin America and Caribbean

Latest Updates

El oscuro futuro de la negociación con el ELN

El anuncio de la instalación de la mesa ha producido mucha expectativa, pero el tiempo para negociar parece ser muy corto y la inmadurez política que ha demostrado esta guerrilla podría complicar aún más el panorama.  
 

Originally published in Razon Publica

Venezuela Is Falling off the Map

Beset by relentless hyperinflation, collapsing public services and increasingly dictatorial rule, Venezuela is at risk of becoming a failed state. The best hope for change lies with neighbouring countries, which must sustain pressure to find a solution.

Also available in Español

Colombia tras el plebiscito: salir del atolladero

Los colombianos han dejado claro que quieren la paz. El referéndum del 2 de octubre obliga a reabrir la negociación para incluir algunas de las demandas implícitas en el voto del No. La dificultad está en negociar mientras el reloj apunta a las presidenciales de 2018.

Originally published in Política Exterior

Can the Vatican Pull Venezuela Back from the Brink?

Venezuela’s blocking of a recall referendum on ending the presidency of Nicolás Maduro has made a peaceful solution to the country’s festering conflict harder to achieve. Vatican mediation now offers one of the few hopes of progress.

Also available in Español

Our People

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
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Kyle Johnson

Senior Analyst, Colombia
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