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Andes

CrisisWatch Andes

CrisisWatch is a monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.

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Trends for Last Month May 2017

Deteriorated Situations

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Improved Situations

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Outlook for This Month June 2017

Conflict Risk Alerts

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Resolution Opportunities

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

14 Jun 2017
The election [of Venezuela's Constitutional Assembly] planned for July 30 could be a trigger point leading to a sharp escalation of violence. The Washington Post

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
13 Jun 2017
For the FARC, the subject of money has always touched a nerve. If it's shown they have a lot of wealth, it adds fuel to the narrative that they are simply drug traffickers. AP

Kyle Johnson

Senior Analyst, Colombia
24 May 2017
The more people die [in Venezuela], the more the anger grows and the more willing the [Venezuelan] government becomes to respond even more violently. The Washington Post

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
11 May 2017
After years of using elections as plebiscites [...] the government [of Venezuela] can now [...] neither muster the electoral support nor find a convincing reason not to hold a vote. The Washington Post

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
8 May 2017
The U.S. has a role to play in contributing to the international pressure [on Venezuela], but that is best done multilaterally, which is what we have seen so far. Univision

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
29 Apr 2017
[Venezuela's government exercises control] largely through force and the threat to deny government welfare benefits, including food. The Washington Post

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes

Latest Updates

Venezuela: A Blueprint for Strife

Two developments are propelling Venezuela faster along a route that has already led to dozens of deaths in the last few weeks: the first is an undemocratic proposal for a new constitution; the second is increasingly isolated Venezuela’s withdrawal from the Organisation of American States.

Also available in Español

A Wary Farewell to Arms for the FARC

Since Colombia ratified a revised peace accord to end the country’s long insurgency, FARC rebels have moved rapidly to ad hoc cantonment sites where they will demobilise under UN supervision. But the FARC leadership’s commitment to the deal is under pressure from disparate elements in its rank and file.

Venezuela: A Regional Solution to the Political Standoff

Facing social and economic collapse, Venezuela is likely to continue to be Latin America's most urgent crisis in 2017. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2017 annual early-warning report for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the European Union and its member states to work closely with governments in the region, particularly Caribbean nations with close ties to Caracas, toward the restoration of democracy in Venezuela.

El oscuro futuro de la negociación con el ELN

El anuncio de la instalación de la mesa ha producido mucha expectativa, pero el tiempo para negociar parece ser muy corto y la inmadurez política que ha demostrado esta guerrilla podría complicar aún más el panorama.  
 

Originally published in Razon Publica

Our People

Phil Gunson

Senior Analyst, Andes
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Kyle Johnson

Senior Analyst, Colombia
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