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Libya

Implementation of the UN-mediated 2015 political deal that established the Presidency Council and Tripoli-based interim government has been hindered by claims of illegitimacy by rival political forces. Although the framework of the deal is the only viable path to resolving the Libyan conflict, Crisis Group encourages all parties to negotiate a new government with nationwide legitimacy. Important steps were taken in July 2017, when rivals President al-Serraj and General Haftar agreed to a ceasefire agreement and to hold elections in 2018. Yet Libya remains deeply divided and failure to implement the agreement could adversely affect regional security as well as increase migrant flows into the European Union. Crisis Group aims to inform the international community, as well as national and regional actors, about the importance prioritising economic development and basic political consensus as  the main stepping stones for sustainable peace.

CrisisWatch Libya

Unchanged Situation

Fighting continued in and around capital Tripoli between Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) and forces nominally loyal to UN-backed Govt of National Accord (GNA) pushing death toll to over 700 since early April. Both sides relied heavily on airpower and continued to receive military support from regional allies. In offensive launched late May to capture city centre, LNA forces advanced only 2-3km into southern Salaheddin neighbourhood; LNA airstrikes hit GNA depots on airport road and eastern suburb Tajoura. GNA forces 19 June claimed they had retaken former international airport, but control over airport still contested. GNA forces 26 June reconquered and expelled LNA from Gharyan, key logistic base 80km south of capital under LNA control since April. Turkish engineers in Tripoli trained GNA forces to use anti-aircraft technology and armoured vehicles, reportedly provided by Turkey but paid for by Qatar. Turkey 30 June said if militias loyal to Haftar did not release six Turkish nationals they were holding, Haftar’s “illegal militia forces” would be “legitimate targets”. Forces loyal to Haftar 30 June said they had destroyed Turkish drone parked at Tripoli’s only working airport, halting civilian flights. United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Russia reportedly continued to deliver military supplies to LNA, and Egypt manpower. Both sides rejected calls for ceasefire and political talks. In speech 16 June, PM Serraj refused talks with Haftar and excluded him from his proposed political roadmap, including National Conference under UN aegis to appoint judicial committee to draft legislation for parliamentary and presidential elections to be held before end of 2019. In 19 June interview, Haftar said LNA would continue military operations until it controlled capital; he would then abolish bodies created by 2015 Skhirat agreement, including Tripoli-based Presidency Council, form constitutional committee, hold referendum, disband militias and hold elections. Islamic State (ISIS) claimed two bomb blasts in Derna in east 2 June.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

10 Jul 2019
The French need to clarify in greater detail. The open question is whether or not they are actively supporting Haftar’s forces in their offensive on Tripoli. The Guardian

Claudia Gazzini

Consulting Analyst, Libya
4 Jun 2019
With the GNA and the LNA refusing to halt hostilities and amid diplomatic paralysis, the war in and around Tripoli is likely to drag on. AFP

Claudia Gazzini

Consulting Analyst, Libya
9 Apr 2019
Haftar is deeply unpopular in many places and given the fragmented state of Libya and the proliferation of armed groups it’s going to be very hard to impose his rule throughout the country. TIME

Joost Hiltermann

Program Director, Middle East and North Africa
17 Feb 2019
Any effort to unite Libya requires an integrated strategy with a political, security and economic component complementing each other and working together towards a common objective. Al Jazeera

Claudia Gazzini

Consulting Analyst, Libya
10 Jan 2019
In Libya, there is a view that outsiders are meddling and hence Libyans can’t reach solutions. The Financial Times

Claudia Gazzini

Consulting Analyst, Libya
5 Sep 2018
In terms of dynamics and movement of armed groups on the ground [in Libya], I would say it’s even worse than 2011 after the fall of Gaddafi. At least in 2011 they had a sense of optimism and respect for one another. Now they are all trying to carve out territory but with deep distrust and animosity with each other. The Independent

Claudia Gazzini

Consulting Analyst, Libya

Latest Updates

EU Watch List / Global

Watch List 2019 – Second Update

Watch List Updates complement International Crisis Group’s annual Watch List, most recently published in January 2019. These early-warning publications identify major conflict situations in which prompt action, driven or supported by the European Union and its member states, would generate stronger prospects for peace. The second update to the Watch List 2019 includes entries on Colombia, Ethiopia, Iran and Libya.

Averting a Full-blown War in Libya

Fighting between forces loyal to Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and allies of the UN-backed government in Tripoli threatens a bloodbath and a regional proxy war. Libya’s international partners should urgently take steps to avoid a major battle and get both sides back to the negotiating table under a new format.

Also available in العربية
EU Watch List / Global

Watch List 2018 – Third Update

Crisis Group’s third update to our Watch List 2018 includes entries on economic reforms in Libya, preserving the fragile quiet in Syria’s Idlib province, addressing the plight of civilians in eastern Ukraine, supporting Colombia's uneasy peace process and averting violence in Nigeria's upcoming elections. This annual early-warning report identifies conflict situations in which prompt action by the European Union and its member states would generate stronger prospects for peace.

Libya’s Economic Reforms Fall Short

While Libya’s first reform package since the fall of Gaddafi in 2011 has had positive initial effects, more must be done to improve the deteriorating economic situation in the country. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2018 annual early-warning update for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to address some of the packages’ core issues and press the government to create more thorough economic reforms.

Also available in Italiano

After the Showdown in Libya’s Oil Crescent

A renewed struggle this summer over Libya’s main oil export zone cut sales in half, squeezing hard currency supplies amid outcry about mismanagement of hydrocarbon revenues. To build trust, Libyan and international actors should review public spending and move toward unifying divided financial institutions.

Also available in العربية

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Claudia Gazzini

Consulting Analyst, Libya