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North Africa

CrisisWatch North Africa

CrisisWatch is a monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.

View latest updates

Trends for Last Month November 2017

Deteriorated Situations

Egypt

Improved Situations

none

Outlook for This Month December 2017

Conflict Risk Alerts

Egypt

Resolution Opportunities

none

Reports & Briefings

In The News

25 Nov 2017
[ISIL's direct attack on a mosque in Egypt] suggests that they are now completely indiscriminate and don’t care about local sentiment. The National

Issandr El Amrani

Project Director, North Africa
22 Oct 2017
[Terrorist] attack [in Egypt] places the Ministry of Interior under greater scrutiny, because it appears to have been caught off-guard by the abilities of the militants. The National

Issandr El Amrani

Project Director, North Africa
24 Sep 2017
[A U.S. military] strike [against ISIS positions in Libya] seems to indicate Libya is mainly an anti-terrorism file and only subsequently a political file [for the U.S. government]. The Washington Post

Claudia Gazzini

Senior Analyst, Libya
19 Sep 2017
Now the problem is that those [political] factions [across Libya] have fragmented internally. It's even more difficult to solicit representative views. Reuters

Claudia Gazzini

Senior Analyst, Libya
9 Sep 2017
The smuggling business [in Libya] is a business. It’s all about money. The Economist

Claudia Gazzini

Senior Analyst, Libya
24 Aug 2017
If [the U.S. decision to suspend economic and military aid to Egypt is] intended as a signal to Sisi's regime, it will have limited impact on [his] behaviour. Al Jazeera

Issandr El Amrani

Project Director, North Africa

Latest Updates

Report / Africa

Force du G5 Sahel : trouver sa place dans l’embouteillage sécuritaire

Créée en février 2017, la Force conjointe du G5 Sahel est une force de nouvelle génération dans un espace sahélien où se bousculent des initiatives militaires et diplomatiques parfois concurrentes. Il ne suffira pas de fournir des armes et de l’argent pour résoudre les crises sahéliennes. Pour atteindre ses objectifs, la force doit gagner la confiance des populations et des puissances régionales et obtenir leur soutien.

Also available in English

It’s Not a Sprint

The fraught history of the military intervention shows that EU engagement in Libya should first and foremost be guided by strategic vision.

Originally published in Körber-Stiftung

Breaking Taboos in Tunisia

Tunisia has struggled to stay on track during the turmoil of the Arab uprisings. A dedicated Tunisia analyst, unique field work and privileged access to influential actors helps Crisis Group play a leading role in shaping policies to ensure the country’s democratic transition stays peaceful.

Also available in Français

Fixing Libya's Economy Essential to Curb Migrant Flows

A recent dramatic decrease in migrants reaching Europe may be partly explained by payoffs to armed groups in Libya. In this video, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Libya, Claudia Gazzini, warns of the risks associated with short-term solutions to the flow of migrants reaching Europe through Libya.

Quick Fixes Won’t Block Libya’s People Smugglers for Long

A recent dramatic decrease in migrants reaching Europe may be partly explained by payoffs to armed groups in Libya. In this Q&A, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Libya, Claudia Gazzini, warns about the risks associated with this policy, arguing that while working with armed groups may be necessary in the short term, any durable solution requires putting Libya’s economy and politics back on track.

Our People

Issandr El Amrani

Project Director, North Africa
boumilo

Michaël Béchir Ayari

Senior Analyst, Tunisia

Claudia Gazzini

Senior Analyst, Libya
claudiagazzini