For much of the last several decades, Lebanon has been wracked by instability and tangled up in the affairs of larger or more powerful neighbours. Its confessional political system, based on power sharing among its eighteen officially recognised ethno-religious groups, is arguably both the cause and the effect of recurrent strife, notably the 1975-1990 civil war. Today the elites who run the system are also implicated in ever-deepening state dysfunction and economic recession. Meanwhile, Lebanon is at risk of spillover from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Syrian war and regional turmoil, due partly to the rise of Hizbollah, the Shiite Islamist movement opposed to Israel and allied with Iran and the Syrian regime, as a political force. The country hosts hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees as well as nearly 1.5 million Syrians. Pending changes that would allow resolution of the outside conflicts, Crisis Group works to keep Lebanon insulated from their flare-ups, to seek durable solutions for refugees and to encourage structural reform that might alleviate the country's internal problems.
The CrisisWatch Digest Lebanon offers a monthly one-page snapshot of conflict-related country trends in a clear, accessible format, using a map of the region to pinpoint developments.
Economic crisis deepened as currency reached new record low, sparking protests, while executive vacuums continued without end in sight and Hizbollah issued warnings over U.S. policy.
Economic strife worsened amid devaluing currency, fomenting public unrest. Lebanese lira 28 Feb reached new record low value of 85,000 to $1 at parallel exchange rate; accelerated devaluation from around 40,000 in early Jan may be related to significant decrease in U.S. dollars that Central Bank injects into market at subsidised rate, from around $40mn daily in Dec to $10mn in late Feb. Fuel prices continued to rise as other essential imported products grew scarce. Economy and trade ministry 8 and 28 Feb increased prices for Arabic bread. Clashes 10 Feb erupted in both capital Beirut and Tripoli between competing networks of private electricity generators. Widespread protests 16 Feb broke out countrywide against economic conditions and depositors’ continued inability to access savings trapped inside illiquid banks, leading to road blocks and arson attack on bank branch in central Beirut.
Double executive (president and govt) vacuum continued. Presidential vacuum since 1 Nov continued with little apparent prospect of resolution. Parliament held no electoral sessions during Feb, reflecting prevailing deadlock between various political factions. France, U.S., Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt 6 Feb warned they will reconsider “all ties” with Lebanon if vacuum continues indefinitely. Meanwhile, attempts to form new govt to replace caretaker administration have practically ceased. PM Mikati 6 Feb convened cabinet meeting to authorise spending on health, education and other sectors, which most Free Patriotic Movement-aligned ministers boycotted. Ineffectual executive action could jeopardise orderly succession of key executive positions, such as head of general security who is due to retire early March and Central Bank governor, whose term expires in June; municipal elections in May could also be delayed.
Hizbollah accused U.S. of destabilising country. Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah 16 Feb reiterated rhetoric blaming alleged U.S. “siege” for economic misery, warning of grave consequences – including conflict with Israel – if U.S. were to continue deliberate strategy to destabilise country and starve party’s base into submission.
Israel and one of its neighbors [Lebanon] - a neighbor that doesn't officially recognize Israel - have come to a constructive solution for a conflict. And that's histor...
Israeli security interests are best served by Lebanon's economy being rebuilt rather than the crisis getting worse.
It is in Hezbollah’s interest to have at least the outward appearance of a functioning political system [in Lebanon] where everyone is involved, including the Sunnis.
For a large part of the population [in Lebanon], electricity will become a luxury. Driving your car will become a luxury, too. Transportation will become a luxury.
Turkey is also one of the candidates to rebuild Beirut harbour. There is also a section within Lebanese society – amongst Sunni Muslims – who have some sympathy for Turke...
The Lebanese state has been hollowed out by decades of corruption and patronage, and this has undermined due process and any sense of accountability.
Barring an eleventh-hour compromise, Lebanon will soon be without a president. An extended vacancy could stall action needed to ease the country’s economic crisis, risking unrest. With outside help, politicians should strive to avert this outcome – and to find ameliorative measures for the interim.
Domestic politics in Israel and Lebanon could scuttle talks about their claims in the Mediterranean – and to the gas riches underneath. With the U.S. mediator’s help, the two countries should refocus on achieving an accord that serves their mutual interest and spares them a confrontation.
On 15 May, amid a continuing economic meltdown, Lebanese voters chose a new parliament. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert David Wood parses the results and assesses the implications for efforts to resolve the country’s deepening crisis.
Crisis Group’s Watch List identifies ten countries or regions at risk of deadly conflict or escalation thereof in 2022. In these places, early action, driven or supported by the EU and its member states, could enhance prospects for peace and stability.
This Crisis Group documentary gives voice to those coping with a state nearing collapse. It shows why today's interlocking crises are so much deeper and more dangerous than many others that have plagued Lebanon over nearly half a century of deadly conflicts.
Lebanon’s imploding economy is deepening instability in the country. Public safety is further imperilled as state institutions weaken and regional tensions play out in Lebanese domestic politics. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2022, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to provide financial support to the Lebanese state, press for elections to be held on schedule and intensify efforts to reduce tension in the region.
While warning signs of Lebanon’s economic meltdown have been apparent for some time, as Crisis Group expert Heiko Wimmen writes, it is still shocking just how close things are to falling apart.
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