For much of the last several decades, Lebanon has been wracked by instability and tangled up in the affairs of larger or more powerful neighbours. Its confessional political system, based on power sharing among its eighteen officially recognised ethno-religious groups, is arguably both the cause and the effect of recurrent strife, notably the 1975-1990 civil war. Today the elites who run the system are also implicated in ever-deepening state dysfunction and economic recession. Meanwhile, Lebanon is at risk of spillover from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Syrian war and regional turmoil, due partly to the rise of Hizbollah, the Shiite Islamist movement opposed to Israel and allied with Iran and the Syrian regime, as a political force. The country hosts hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees as well as nearly 1.5 million Syrians. Pending changes that would allow resolution of the outside conflicts, Crisis Group works to keep Lebanon insulated from their flare-ups, to seek durable solutions for refugees and to encourage structural reform that might alleviate the country's internal problems.
This Crisis Group documentary gives voice to those coping with a state nearing collapse. It shows why today's interlocking crises are so much deeper and more dangerous than many others that have plagued Lebanon over nearly half a century of deadly conflicts.
War in Ukraine exacerbated economic crisis, while candidates registered for May election. Lebanese lira mid-March again dropped some 20% in value, likely driven by spiking oil prices generated by war in Ukraine, as Lebanon imports all of its energy needs and remains exposed to market volatility; devaluation came despite ongoing Central Bank scheme to support exchange rate of Lebanese lira by providing banks with U.S. dollars at price significantly below market rate, which is rapidly depleting foreign exchange reserves. Rising food prices also increased pressure on govt’s room to address economic crisis, and put further strain on fragile social cohesion. As country imports more than 80% of its grain from Ukraine, skyrocketing prices during month fuelled concerns that govt may struggle to continue subsidies for grain, which are critical to prevent public unrest; bread has become increasingly central for food security of rising number of Lebanese impoverished by enduring economic crisis. Judge Ghada Aoun 21 March charged Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh with illegal enrichment and money laundering, after ordering arrest of his brother and freezing assets of several banks; banking association same day announced two-day bank closure to protest decisions. EU 28 March announced assets totalling some $130mn belonging to Salameh were seized in France, Germany and Luxembourg. International Monetary Fund 2 March reportedly warned Lebanese leaders that demanded reforms necessary to unlock financial support would have to be real and “not only on paper”; Deputy PM Saadeh Shami 9 March warned that hole in financial system, currently estimated at $69bn, will continue to grow. Meanwhile, preparations continued for elections scheduled for 15 May; 1,043 candidates, including 155 women, registered candidacies by 15 March deadline. Hizbollah Sec Gen Hassan Nasrallah in televised speech 18 March categorically denied Ukrainian Ministry of Defence’s assertions, made previous day, that Hizbollah fighters were supporting Russian military operations in Ukraine, saying: “These are lies that have no basis in truth.” Judge 24 March announced he had charged Lebanese Forces party leader Samir Geagea in relation to deadly clashes in capital Beirut in Oct 2021.
Lebanon is suffering economic meltdown while its politicians dither. Reform – and fiscal relief – is unlikely before 2022 elections. While pushing for timely polls, international partners should send humanitarian assistance to ease the public’s pain, keep key infrastructure running and avert security breakdowns.
As it tries to pull out of its economic tailspin, Lebanon badly needs a functional cabinet able to make reforms. Such a government must have broad support, including from Hizbollah. The party’s domestic and external foes should accordingly stop attempting to curtail its role.
Lebanon’s reeling economy badly needs outside aid. Yet the political class, which largely created the problems, is resisting necessary change. The European Union should keep limiting its assistance to humanitarian relief until Lebanese politicians make reforms that benefit all citizens, not just the privileged few.
An uprising of unprecedented scope has rocked Lebanon as the country’s economy tumbles deeper into recession. Poverty and unemployment could lead to violent unrest. Donors should put together an emergency package but condition further aid upon reforms to tackle corruption, a major grievance driving protest.
Most Syrian refugees in Lebanon have thought many times about going home but in the end deemed the risks too great. Donors should increase aid allowing the Lebanese government to continue hosting the Syrians, so that any decision they make to leave is truly voluntary.
Four years after plunging into Syria’s civil war, Hizbollah has achieved its core aim of preserving the Assad regime. Yet with no clear exit strategy, the Lebanese “Party of God” faces ever greater costs unless it can lower the sectarian flames, open dialogue with non-jihadist rebel groups and help pave the way for a negotiated settlement.
It is in Hezbollah’s interest to have at least the outward appearance of a functioning political system [in Lebanon] where everyone is involved, including the Sunnis.
For a large part of the population [in Lebanon], electricity will become a luxury. Driving your car will become a luxury, too. Transportation will become a luxury.
Turkey is also one of the candidates to rebuild Beirut harbour. There is also a section within Lebanese society – amongst Sunni Muslims – who have some sympathy for Turkey’s neo-Ottoman project.
The Lebanese state has been hollowed out by decades of corruption and patronage, and this has undermined due process and any sense of accountability.
[The Trump administration] is content allowing Israel to take the lead in pushing back against Iranian and Hezbollah influence in Syria.
The real risk [for Israel and Lebanon] is that of a miscommunication or accident being a trigger of a conflict across their border.
Crisis Group’s Watch List identifies ten countries or regions at risk of deadly conflict or escalation thereof in 2022. In these places, early action, driven or supported by the EU and its member states, could enhance prospects for peace and stability.
Read the full alert here: Violence Threatens Fraying Rule of Law in Lebanon.
Clashes on 14 October over a judicial investigation into the 2020 Beirut port blast evoked the sectarian divisions of Lebanon’s civil war and threatened what's left of the rule of law. Hizbollah must allow the investigation to proceed or risk further weakening of the state.
In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk with Crisis Group expert Heiko Wimmen about Lebanon’s unprecedented economic meltdown and the threat it poses to the country’s politics, society and stability.
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