8 March 2023

The U.S. Intelligence Community’s 2023 Annual Threat Assessment noted that “Iran will continue to threaten U.S. interests as it tries to erode U.S. influence in the Middle East, entrench its influence and project power in neighbouring states and minimise threats to the regime”. “Iran will continue to threaten U.S. persons directly and via proxy attacks, particularly in the Middle East. Iran also remains committed to developing surrogate networks inside the U.S.”, the report assessed, also asserting that “Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that would be necessary to produce a testable nuclear device… If Tehran does not receive sanctions relief, Iranian officials probably will consider further enriching uranium up to 90 per cent”. It further emphasised: “Iran’s growing expertise and willingness to conduct aggressive cyber operations make it a major threat to the security of U.S. and allied networks and data”. 

Subscribe to Crisis Group’s Email Updates

Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.