Asmara strengthened relations with Cairo and Moscow; authorities reportedly arrested 31 Yemeni fishermen over disputed Hanish islands issue.

Asmara’s ties with Cairo and Moscow deepened. FM Osman Saleh 8 Aug met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Egypt’s capital Cairo to discuss “issues and threats in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea”; Egyptian FM Badr Abdel-Aty and Director of Egyptian General Intelligence Service Abbas Kamel also attended. Govts, both of which have uneasy relations with Ethiopia, expressed commitment to continued coordination in addressing regional threats. Comments follow Feb meeting between Sisi and President Isaias Afwerki, in which they stressed need to protect Somalia’s sovereignty following Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal. Meanwhile, Russian Deputy FM Mikhail Bogdanov and Eritrean Chargé d’Affaires Naizghi Hagos 12 Aug met in Russian capital Moscow; pair confirmed “their focus on deepening political dialogue and close coordination of approaches” in international fora.

31 Yemeni fishermen reportedly detained over disputed Hanish islands issue. Amid long-running dispute between Yemen and Eritrea over Hanish islands, Asmara 22 Aug reportedly released 31 Yemeni fishermen detained three days earlier; fishermen accused authorities of “torture and starvation” during their detention.

Leadership of Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) fractured, violence in Amhara and Oromia regions remained rampant, and relations with Mogadishu and Cairo grew more strained. 

TPLF leadership splintered. National Election Board of Ethiopia 9 Aug registered TPLF as new party under “special conditions”, saying it must conduct general assembly within six months and choose new leadership to finalise registration. Ruling fractured TPLF, with faction led by party chairman Debretsion Gebremichael 11 Aug rejecting decision and insisting on restoration of party’s former legal status; faction led by Tigray Interim Administration President Getachew Reda, meanwhile, advocated closer ties with federal govt. Debretsion’s faction 13-19 Aug held party congress despite national election board warning it did not comply with body’s ruling; congress ended with election of new leadership that excludes Reda and his allies (who boycotted conference and held their own meeting), marking major shift within party’s power structure. Tigray military leaders 8 Aug warned they will not tolerate anything that undermines peace.

Amhara region remained wracked by govt-insurgent fighting. Clashes between security forces and Fano militants occurred in West Gojjam, East Gojjam, North Wello, North Shewa, Central Gondar, North Gondar and South Gondar zones as hopes for peace talks faltered amid tensions among Fano groups. Meanwhile, UN 14 Aug reported unidentified armed group killed humanitarian worker in North Wello. 

Conflict persisted in Oromia amid tensions within Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). Federal-OLA clashes persisted in region’s West Guji, North, South West and East Shewa, and West, Kellem and Horo Guduru Wollega zones, with civilians frequently targeted. Govt made little effort to resume talks despite insecurity, while tensions within OLA worsened; notably, OLA leader Jaal Marroo Dirribaa 14 Aug accused elements within insurgency of collaborating with govt.

Tensions with Somalia and Egypt intensified over defence pact. In context of heightened tensions between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa over latter’s port deal with Somaliland, presidents of Egypt and Somalia 14 Aug signed defence pact; weeks later, Cairo 27 Aug delivered weapons to Mogadishu, prompting Ethiopia’s Foreign Ministry 28 Aug to accuse latter of “colluding with external actors to destabilise the region”. Addis Ababa next day sent new ambassador to Somaliland.

Debates over transition to civilian rule continued after draft constitution unveiled; civil society leaders remained missing.

Draft sparked concern over President Gen. Doumbouya’s potential candidacy in future polls. After late July long-awaited presentation, govt 11-12 Aug publicly released new draft constitution to be submitted to referendum before end 2024. Civil society and opposition including coalition National Alliance for Alternation and Democracy (ANAD) questioned certain proposed measures. While draft includes limiting presidential terms to two, creating new bicameral legislature and allowing independent candidacies for first time, it does not bar transition’s head Doumbouya from running for president in future (unlike transitional charter), potentially paving way for him to stay in office. Meanwhile, new age limit provision disqualifies Doumbouya’s opponent, former President Condé, who he deposed in 2021 coup. Transitional official 8 Aug remained vague on prospect of Doumbouya’s candidacy.

Opposition called for shutdown, two civil society leaders still missing. Main opposition collective Forces Vives de Guinée (FVG) 6 Aug called for 12 Aug general strike in capital Conakry to protest against military authorities and for return to civilian rule by 31 Dec, also denouncing continued mystery surrounding July disappearance of civil society leaders Foniké Menguè and Mamadou Billo. Strike, however, only marginally observed, amid heavy police presence and govt ban on demonstrations in place since 2022. Meanwhile, govt made no progress in reconciliation with exiled political leaders including former PM Diallo.

In another important development. Lawyers for former President Camara 1 Aug said they would appeal his previous day conviction of 20 years imprisonment for crimes against humanity; case related to 2009 massacre of some 150 protesters in capital Conakry.

Protests subsided amid govt restrictions, anti-Al-Shabaab operations continued, and international police mission to Haiti remained challenging.

Demonstrations faded although political tensions stayed high. Nationwide protests against proposed finance bill that began in June and morphed into wider anti-govt movement gradually reduced throughout month. Decline partly due to authorities’ restrictions, notably, police 8 Aug closed major roads in capital Nairobi and fired tear gas to disperse few dozen protesters gathering as new cabinet sworn in; govt pressure on media groups may also have stymied local reporting during Aug. Political tensions, however, remained high over direction of President Ruto’s govt; court 2 Aug paused parliamentary nominations to selection panel which will choose electoral commissioners – part of concessions to protesters – after complaint from opposition Azimio coalition politician who was replaced as nominee. New finance minister John Mbadi 18 Aug said some tax proposals would be re-introduced while MPs 25 Aug began debate on controversial bill restricting protests. Meanwhile, Ruto 29 Aug said he was not aware of any abductions during finance bill demonstrations; rights groups reported dozens.

Attacks bearing Al-Shabaab hallmark persisted in north east. Gunmen 10 Aug killed driver for govt official in Kamor area, Mandera county, in attack authorities blamed on Al-Shabaab. Security forces continued anti-militant operations including 5 Aug in Garissa, Mandera and Wajir counties and 15 Aug in Fafi district, Garissa, that killed two suspected Al-Shabaab members.

Kenyan police continued mission in Haiti. 400-strong force – expected to eventually total 1,000 – carried out more joint patrols and targeted operations near their base in Haitian capital Port-au-Prince (see Haiti). But challenges persisted including limited resources, uncertain funding, salary payment issues and need for reinforcements, including from other countries. 

Amid persistent violence, impact of deadly July attack in north continued as govt severed relations with Ukraine; political climate remained tense. 

Fallout out from killings in Kidal region continued, including internationally. Following July attack around Tinzaouaten town – which was perhaps deadliest incident to date for Russian paramilitary group Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group) in Mali – separatist Permanent Strategic Framework (CSP) armed coalition 1 Aug claimed to have killed 84 Russian and 47 Malian troops. Full picture of events remained unclear, including who inflicted most casualties between CSP and al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) – both involved in clashes but at different stages. Conflict continued in area with military carrying out multiple airstrikes near Tinzaouaten. Meanwhile, govt 4 Aug cut diplomatic relations with Kyiv after Ukrainian military official claimed support role in Tinzaouaten, including providing intelligence and training; authorities called this “clear aggression” and received support from Sahelian neighbours (see Niger). Ukraine 5 Aug said decision to cut ties was “short-sighted and hasty” without “any evidence”. Meanwhile, govt 23 Aug suspended French broadcaster LCI for two months after program covered attack. 

Jihadist-related violence persisted across north and centre. In north, Islamic State Sahel Province 16 Aug killed three civilians in Arhabou village, Gao region. In centre, JNIM 15 Aug killed at least 15 soldiers on patrol near Diallassagou town, Mopti region. Reports of abuses against civilians continued; Russian paramilitaries 5 Aug allegedly killed at least ten civilians in Toule village, Segou region (centre).

Political climate remained tense as repression continued. Collective of lawyers 3 Aug expressed concern over disappearance of legal official from prison cell while PM Maïga 5 Aug publicly criticised May arrest of political ally. Head of High Islamic Council 17 Aug called for dialogue with armed groups; draft charter from inter-Malian dialogue that ended in May – due to be submitted to govt in Sept – could open window for talks, although prospects remained uncertain. 

In other important international developments. Govt 9 Aug expelled Swedish ambassador after Sweden two days prior announced “phase out” of development aid; Denmark 26 Aug said it would close embassies in Mali and Burkina Faso (see Burkina Faso). 

Govt and Rwandan forces continued offensive against Islamic State militants in northern Cabo Delgado province; court barred opposition coalition from October elections. 

Counter-insurgency operations focused on coastal district Macomia. Rwandan and govt forces continued offensive against Islamic State Mozambique Province (ISMP) that began late July; though Maputo and Kigali communicated very little publicly about operations, forces reportedly targeted militant strongholds along coast and in Catupa forest. Area of fighting reportedly stretched from south of north-lying Mocímboa da Praia district down throughout Macomia to southern parts of district, as well as westward to areas along Messalo river and Catupa forest; conflict zones included strategically located Mucojo town which ISMP has occupied for several months. Early unconfirmed reports suggested insurgents may have suffered heavy casualties. Offensive included use of Rwandan combat helicopters, notably targeting insurgent positions in Mucojo; potential civilian casualties could damage Rwandan military’s good standing with local communities.

ISMP remained threat in Muidumbe, Nangade districts. Explosive planted by militants on N380 road 9 Aug killed police truck driver in Muidumbe district. Group also maintained presence in Nangade district bordering Tanzania, with Tanzanian forces clashing with insurgents outside Nangade town; ISMP and joint Tanzanian-govt force 2 Aug reportedly fought around Namuine village; details remained unclear.

Court confirmed opposition coalition banned from legislative and provincial ballot. Constitutional Council 1 Aug upheld July decision by electoral commission to bar opposition coalition Coligação Aliança Democrática (CAD) from 9 Oct polls because its registration was invalid; CAD leader Venâncio Mondlane, however, still allowed to run in presidential vote. Meanwhile, election observers criticised parliament’s 8 Aug law that removed power of district courts – some of which overturned results favouring ruling FRELIMO party in 2023 municipal elections – to order recounts. Campaigning began 24 Aug.

Relations with Benin warmed, while govt continued diplomatic realignment; jihadist insecurity persisted in south. 

Beninese-Nigerien ties slowly improved. Despite positive bilateral visits in July, President Gen. Tiani 3 Aug reiterated claims Beninese govt was hosting French “subversive elements” working to destabilise govt, said restoring relations would depend on assurances Benin posed no security threat. Steady de-escalation, however, continued despite rhetoric, with Nigerien authorities 6 Aug accepting credentials presented by new Beninese ambassador. In another sign of warming ties, Benin 16 Aug authorised resumption of trade transporting Nigerien crude oil through its Sémé port; land border, however, remained closed.

Diplomatic realignment continued. Govt 6 Aug cut diplomatic ties with Ukraine over its supposed support to armed groups involved in fighting in Mali (see Mali); military authorities said move was in “solidarity” with Bamako, who cut ties with Kyiv two days prior. Ukraine 8 Aug said decision was “regrettable” and accusations “groundless and untrue”. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger – who make up regional body Alliance of Sahel States – 19 Aug sent joint letter to UN Security Council condemning Ukraine’s “open and assumed support for international terrorism” and calling on body to “take appropriate measures”. In sign of rapprochement after months of heightened tensions, defence chief 28 Aug hosted Nigerian counterpart in capital Niamey. Meanwhile, U.S. military 5 Aug completed withdrawal from Agadez drone base, month earlier than Sept deadline, while last German troops 30 Aug left country; Washington left door open to future non-military cooperation, but withdrawals and tensions with Kyiv highlighted Niamey’s shift away from Western partners and toward Moscow.  

Jihadist violence persisted in Diffa and Tillabery regions. In Tillabery (south west), al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims 2 Aug claimed to have taken hostage two Russian citizens working for Russian company in Mbanga area – rich with gold mines – at unspecified date; militants likely from the Islamic State Sahel Province 13 Aug attacked several villages in Ayorou district, leaving 23 civilians dead. In Diffa (south east), suspected Islamic State West Africa Province fighters 14 Aug attacked military escort on road between Mainé-Soroa and Diffa town, killing four civilians and wounding several soldiers and civilians.

Urban protests against economic and food crisis saw unrest amid looting and security forces’ crackdown; jihadist, bandit and other armed group violence persisted. 

Youth-led demonstrations turned violent amid mob looting and govt repression. Youth organisations 1 Aug began planned ten days of protests against govt’s handling of economic and food crisis. While demonstrations in northern cities and federal capital Abuja flustered authorities, leaderless nature of movement led to looting in some places; in response, authorities sought to suppress protests, including through curfews, arrests and use of tear gas and live ammunition. Rights group Amnesty International said demonstrations left at least 22 people dead by 7 Aug, while organisers reported over 1,400 arrested as protests lost steam. President Tinubu 4 Aug called for dialogue but offered no response to protesters’ demands.

Army reported gains against jihadists in ongoing North East operations. In Borno state, air strikes 16 Aug killed at least 37 militants near Lake Chad; troops 17 Aug raided Boko Haram camp near Sambisa forest, killing three fighters including prominent commander Abu Rijab. Jihadists remained threat to civilians; in Yobe state, suspected Boko Haram fighters 30 Aug killed at least three students at religious school in Geidam area.

Banditry remained widespread in North West and North Central. Notably in Benue state, gunmen 8 Aug killed 74 in Ayati town, Ukum area. In Niger state, bandits 19 Aug killed 13 farmers in Shiroro area. In Sokoto state’s Sabon Birni area gunmen 20 Aug killed emir of Gobir town, kidnapped in July. In Zamfara state, residents 28 Aug repelled attack in Talata Mafara area, which killed at least 37 bandits. Over 200 persons abducted for ransom during month.

In other important developments. In Imo state, gunmen 3 Aug killed community leader and six village heads in Onuimo area. Enugu state govt 21 Aug said security forces in previous two weeks killed 27 including members of factional Biafra separatist group led by Finland-based agitator, Simon Ekpa. Members of Muslim sect 25 Aug clashed with police in Abuja; two police and unconfirmed others killed. In sign of rapprochement after months of heightened tensions, defence chief 28 Aug met Nigerien counterpart in Niger’s capital Niamey.

Regional diplomatic efforts to ease tensions with DR Congo (DRC) intensified amid continued war of words between Kigali and Kinshasa.

Angolan mediation continued to gain some traction despite persistent aggressive Rwandan and Congolese rhetoric. During inaugural address as he was sworn in for fourth term, President Kagame 11 Aug criticised Kinshasa’s handling of crisis in eastern DRC, although he praised mediation by Angolan President Lourenço and Kenyan President Ruto. Earlier, Congolese President Tshisekedi 6 Aug called Kagame “criminal” and said he wanted to ask him “why he is killing in my country”. In continued Angolan-led efforts, Lourenço met with Kagame on sidelines of inauguration and following day met Tshisekedi in DRC capital Kinshasa; members of southern African regional body SADC – which has deployed security force in eastern DRC – 17 Aug endorsed Lourenço’s peace diplomacy. Series of further tri-lateral meetings took place in Angolan capital Luanda; intelligence experts from Angola, DRC and Rwanda 7 Aug reviewed joint plan to combat anti-Rwandan militia Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, key Kigali demand. Later, Rwandan FM Nduhungirehe and Congolese counterpart Wagner 20-21 Aug met for third ministerial meeting, amid hopes engagement could lead to Kagame-Tshisekedi summit; event, however, ended without any compromise, with further ministerial meeting scheduled for 9-10 Sept in Luanda. As fighting continued on ground in DRC, Kinshasa 29 Aug announced it filed case against Kigali at East African Court of Justice, accusing Rwanda of violating its sovereignty and of crimes against civilians. 

Al-Shabaab launched major attack in capital Mogadishu as post-AU mission security framework became clearer; Türkiye’s mediation between Somalia and Ethiopia progressed slowly.

Militants conducted largest attack in over year in capital. Al-Shabaab 2 Aug carried out complex attack including suicide bomb at beach restaurant in Mogadishu, killing at least 37 civilians and wounding over 200 in deadliest attack in city since Oct 2022; president’s office said it would design plans to strengthen capital’s security. Also, suicide vehicle bomber 21 Aug killed at least five at security checkpoint on Mogadishu’s outskirts. Govt continued anti-Al-Shabaab operations including 13 Aug in Galcad district, Galmudug state (centre), killing ten militants and same day in Badhade district, Jubaland state (south), claiming to have killed 32. 

Replacement for AU mission (ATMIS) announced. AU 1 Aug approved plans for successor to ATMIS; AU Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) to have some 12,000 personnel across 23 locations and run from Jan 2025 until Dec 2029; meanwhile, UN Security Council 15 Aug authorised ATMIS mandate extension until 31 Dec when it is replaced. Key questions, however, remain over transition from ATMIS to AUSSOM including financing and which countries will contribute troops.

Clan violence persisted. Rival groups 19 Aug onwards clashed in Bidhaan-dheere area, Galgaduud region (Galmudug), reportedly killing at least four, including local mediator.

Tensions with Ethiopia continued. Türkiye 12-13 Aug hosted second round of indirect talks between FM Fiqi and his Ethiopian counterpart Atskeselassie; although reports of positive progress emerged, discussions ended without deal as both Mogadishu and Addis Ababa stuck to positions regarding latter’s Jan announced agreement with Hargeisa; third round due to begin 17 Sept. Immediately after talks, President Mohamud 14 Aug travelled to Egypt to sign defence cooperation agreement in signal of govt’s continuing attempts to bolster international support; Cairo 27 Aug delivered military equipment to Mogadishu, prompting criticism from Addis Ababa (see Ethiopia). Meanwhile, govt late Aug began pressuring businesses including airlines and remittance companies to stop using Somaliland name (see Somaliland).