CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

Nepal

Violence continues unabated since talks between government and Maoist rebels collapsed on 27 August, with more than 400 dead since breakdown in ceasefire. Maoist-initiated general strike demanding abolition of monarchy brought country to virtual standstill for three days. Little progress made in instituting all-party government or restoring normal democratic process, and anxiety increasing about possible fall of government. Rebels announced would cease hostilities during nine-day Hindu festival of Dashain, beginning on 2 October.

Pakistan

Several violent incidents in Karachi: seven killed by unknown assailants on 2 September and bombs exploded on 3 September in Sunni seminary and 19 September in office complex. Authorities detained a number of South East Asian students on suspicion of terror links. A tape attributed to Ayman al-Zawahri, Osama Bin Laden’s deputy, called for Pakistanis to overthrow President Musharraf. Kashmir violence undermining chances of normalising relations with India - Pakistani foreign minister cancelled scheduled October visit.

Sri Lanka

LTTE (Tamil Tigers) pulled out of Japanese-led aid talks on 10 September. Row between Sri Lankan president and prime minister over conduct of negotiations could threaten efforts to end 20-year conflict.

Indonesia

More than 15 men suspected of links to Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) arrested in central Java; Hambali's younger brother arrested in Karachi together with five Indonesian and 13 Malaysian suspected JI members. Abu Bakar Ba'asyir, alleged spiritual leader of JI, sentenced to four years for treason, but acquitted of leading JI – both Ba'asyir and Attorney General’s Office appealing sentence. Bali bomber Ali Imron given life sentence. Indonesian police warn that JI planning further bombings. Christian-Muslim tensions simmer in Poso. Peace seems to have held in Maluku in recent months where fighting between Christians and Muslims has claimed at least 5,000 lives since 1999; Government lifted three-year state of emergency on 15 September after new governor installed without incident. Military operation against separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) - launched mid-May after peace negotiations broke down - looks likely to continue. Indonesian military claims 900 GAM separatists, 66 military and 304 civilians killed since most recent campaign began, but independent access to verify these or other data remains highly restricted.

Myanmar

Aung San Suu Kyi underwent surgery on 19 September; released from hospital on 26 September into house arrest. UN envoy Razali Ismail arrived in Rangoon on 30 September, urged government to release Suu Kyi from house arrest and commence substantive talks with opposition.

Philippines

July ceasefire between government and MILF holding – informal discussions took place on 6-7 September in Kuala Lumpur resulting in agreement to hold fresh round of formal peace talks in October following arrival of Malaysian-led ceasefire observation team. 31-year war has thus far cost over 120,000 lives. Eduardo Ermita, chief government negotiator in peace talks with Muslim rebels, appointed as new defence secretary.

Europe & Central Asia

Kazakhstan

Corruption allegations continue to dog region’s wealthiest country. Former Mobil Oil exec. sentenced in New York to four years in prison on charges relating to bribery scheme involving U.S. consultant James Giffen, accused of giving kickbacks to Kazakh Government in exchange for oil contracts. Pro-government “Fatherland” party swept local council elections held on 20 September. Dariga Nazarbayeva, president’s daughter, announced creation of new pro- government political party, with herself as head.

Kyrgyzstan

Dissatisfaction with government remains high, particularly in south. President Akayev vowed not to run for fifth term in 2005, but there is speculation that Akayev’s wife, or even daughter, may be groomed to succeed him. Journalist, reportedly investigating high-level corruption, found dead; police say no evidence of foul play.

Tajikistan

Year’s large poppy harvest in Afghanistan has led to increased number of drug trafficking-related incidents. On 1 September, alleged Afghan traffickers killed Tajik police officer and took another hostage. Russian troops guarding Tajik-Afghan border seized record amounts of heroin in August.

Turkmenistan

European Parliament considering resolution on human rights in Central Asia’s most repressive country. President Niyazov continues to limit population’s access to information, restrict travel abroad, and sanction human rights abuses. 77-year-old father of rights activist sent into internal exile in retaliation for daughter’s dissent.

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