CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

Indonesia

Car bomb exploded outside Jakarta’s Marriott hotel on 5 August, killing 12 and injuring over 150. Indonesian police named 5 suspects - all members of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) - on 19 August. JI operational chief Hambali, alleged mastermind of the October 2002 Bali bombing, captured in joint operation between Thai authorities and CIA on 12 August. Government suspended plan to divide province of Papua after violence broke out killing 4 between 23 - 28 August. Christian-Muslim tensions simmer in Poso after series of violent incidents in June and July. Military operation against separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) - launched mid-May after peace negotiations broke down - looks likely to continue. Current military methods appear likely to generate more support for GAM.

Myanmar

International pressure mounting on Myanmar’s military leadership over detention (since late May) of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. U.S. and EU bolstered sanctions but none of neighbours - with whom it does most of its trade - has imposed sanctions; and China has strongly criticised them. August saw cabinet reshuffle among ruling generals. On August 30, Gen. Khin Nyunt, newly-appointed PM, laid out roadmap to elections next May - no mention of NLD role or Suu Kyi release. U.S. authorities believe Suu Kyi is on hunger strike.

Philippines

Government lifted “state of rebellion” on 11 August. Soldiers who staged attempted coup in July put on trial. Defence Secretary resigned on 29 August - President Arroyo assumed post. 2 members of terrorist group Abu Sayyaf arrested - under interrogation claimed Abu Sayyaf was planning bombings in Mindanao in October. July ceasefire between government and MILF holding - peace talks due in Malaysia on 4 September.

Europe & Central Asia

Kazakhstan

Region’s wealthiest and most stable country continues to attract attention for poor treatment of journalists and opposition figures. Kazakh authorities reportedly refusing request for pardon from Ghalymzhan Zhaqiyanov, jailed co-founder of Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan, until he promises to stay out of politics.

Kyrgyzstan

Dissatisfaction with Government remains high, particularly in south. President Akayev consolidated power by pushing through widely-criticised constitutional referendum, but promises not to run in next election, due in 2005. Conviction of popular opposition leader Feliks Kulov upheld by Supreme Court.

Tajikistan

Following Kyrgyz president’s example, President Rakhmonov held referendum on package of constitutional changes, one of which could allow him to remain in power until 2020. Government said amendments approved by over 93% of voters.

Turkmenistan

Central Asia’s most repressive and isolated country showing no signs of progress. President Niyazov maintains strict control over general population, limiting access to information, restricting travel abroad, and using systematic human rights abuses to stifle dissent. Parliament, until recently rubber-stamping body, now stripped even of that function.

Uzbekistan

Government continued campaign against suspected Islamic extremists, especially alleged members of banned Hizb ut-Tahrir. Heavy-handedness on part of security services, including widespread use of torture, risks further radicalising segments of the Muslim population. Little danger of conflict in short term, but continuing repressive policies here, as elsewhere in region, risk future unrest.

Georgia

Parliament finally approved composition of new electoral commission, but compromise went against recommendations of U.S. envoy James Baker aimed at preventing electoral fraud in Nov. 2003 elections. Little progress made in negotiations over future status of Abkhazia.

Moldova

Moldovan and Transdniestrian forces took first demilitarisation step in years, withdrawing 37 armoured vehicles from Security Zone separating sides. EU and NATO discussing OSCE proposal to send peacekeepers Moldova to help settle dispute and bring order to region.

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