CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Latin America & Caribbean

Venezuela

Opposition petition for referendum on rule of President Chavez rejected by National Electoral Council. Opposition to collect signatures for second petition. Bomb exploded outside Caracas barracks of presidential guard: no one injured. President Chavez blamed dissident military officers. Roman Catholic Church rejected Chavez claim it was involved in 2002 attempted coup. Chavez suspended oil exports to Dominican Republic, alleging exiles in DR plotting coup.

Guatemala

Former general and coup leader, Efrain Rios Montt, registered as presidential candidate for 9 November elections

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanon

Israeli jets attacked suspected Hizbollah gun position in southern Lebanon on 3 September. Raid was first since 10 August, when shells fired by Hizbollah killed one Israeli and wounded five others, breaking period of calm along border. Incident between Lebanese army and Hizbollah guerrillas left one guerrilla dead after troops intervened in dispute between Hizbollah and rival Shiite party. Government on defensive after ordering banks to reveal accounts of Hamas members whose assets U.S. wants frozen. Prisoner swap between Hizbollah and Israel appears likely.

Syria

Washington renewed demands for better cooperation from Syria in war on terror. U.S. says Syria supporting terrorists, pursuing WMD, and allowing anti-Coalition fighters to cross into Iraq. Syria denied allegations it has been operating spy ring at Guantanamo Bay.

Iran

Tension increasing over issue of Iranian nuclear program. IAEA set 31 October deadline for Tehran to enable UN to verify it is not building nuclear weapons. Matter may be referred to Security Council if Iran deemed non-compliant. Concern that standoff playing into hands of Iranian hardliners and could escalate, with risk of Iran pulling out of Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Elsewhere, Iran-UK relations on rocks after several shooting incidents outside British embassy in Tehran and last month’s arrest by UK of former Iranian ambassador to Argentina.

Iraq

Vigorous diplomatic manoeuvring at United Nations as U.S. pushes resolution authorising multilateral force for Iraq and seeks help in bearing cost of reconstruction. U.S. president Bush failed to garner support from foreign leaders in two days of talks at UN. France urging quick turnover of power to Iraqis; U.S. says proposed timeframe unrealistic: Colin Powell announced six-month deadline for new Iraqi constitution, with elections to follow sometime in 2004. In Iraq, violence continued. Aquila al-Hashimi, member of Iraqi Interim Governing Council, died after being shot by gunmen on 20 September. Two days later, a second suicide bombing outside UN headquarters killed two. UN continues to withdraw staff from Iraq. 192 Coalition soldiers, including 172 Americans, have died since 1 May, declared end of combat operations.

Jordan

Authorities arrested two men accused of anti-U.S. terror plot. Central Bank retracted decision to freeze accounts of Hamas after angry reactions, including from parliament, but freeze may be reinstated. King Abdullah met U.S. President George W. Bush at Camp David; promised democratic reforms.

Saudi Arabia

Security crackdown continues; 200 suspected Islamist militants have been arrested since May. Four killed in gunfight with radicals allegedly planning terror attack. Authorities focusing on blocking flow of cash to terrorist groups amid U.S. criticism of Saudi aid to Hamas. Meanwhile, last of U.S. troops left Saudi Arabia earlier in month, bringing end to 13-year presence. Saudis deny newspaper report that Kingdom considering acquiring nuclear weapons.

Yemen

Government continues to walk fine line between supporting U.S. in war on terror and appeasing largely anti- American populace. Authorities handed over to Saudi Arabia suspected al Qaeda member thought to have had role in May Riyadh bombings.

Israel/Palestine

Power struggle between Arafat and PM Abbas ended with Abbas’s resignation; Ahmed Qureia, speaker of Palestinian parliament, appointed new PM. Three-year anniversary of intifada passed on 28 September with no peace in sight. Israeli attacks on Hamas leaders continued; Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, spiritual leader of Hamas, among targets. Suicide bombings also continued: attacks on Israeli café and bus stop on 9 September killed 15. Israel threatened to expel – and possibly kill – Arafat, drawing international condemnation. U.S. vetoed UN Security Council resolution urging Israel to cease threats against Palestinian leader. Meanwhile, U.S. and Israeli officials held talks in Washington aimed at reaching agreement on route of controversial security fence in West Bank.

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