Unlikely to be any progress in UN-led efforts to reunify Cyprus until December elections in Turkish Cyprus. Greek Cypriot president says he believes decisions about Cyprus are made by Turkey, not Turkish Cypriot leader.

OSCE election monitoring experts arrived in Tbilisi ahead of 2 November parliamentary elections. Run-up to vote characterised by incidents of violence and widespread pessimism that elections will be fair. Increasing crime levels also raising concern. Justice minister resigned after mass jail break on 10 September; over 50 prisoners remain at large. U.S. announced cut in aid to Georgia, particularly to energy sector. Kidnappings and sporadic confrontations between guerrillas and Abkhazian forces reported in recent weeks. New PM approved by parliament in breakaway province of South Ossetia.

Talks on dispute with breakaway region of Transdniestria remain stalled. EU still discussing possibility of sending peacekeepers to region. Russian troops appear likely to remain despite agreement promising pull-out by year’s end.

Concerted international pressure led on 25 September to adoption by local authorities of draft law on defence reform that, if endorsed by parliament, will provide for state command over entity armies and pave way for BiH to join NATO’s Partnership for Peace early next year. Draft laws on intelligence and indirect tax reform also await parliamentary endorsement. New commission to unite Mostar began work on 25 September. SFOR continues to uncover arms caches leftover from war. Remains of some 500 people have been discovered in single mass grave in NE Bosnia – assumed to be Muslim wartime victims of Serbs.

New UNMIK chief Harri Holkeri secured backing of the Contact Group for talks on technical issues between Belgrade and Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian leadership to start in Vienna mid-October. Unready and disunited, Kosovo politicians responded with buck-passing and threatened non-attendance, arguing UN administration must transfer them more governmental competencies if they are to negotiate with Belgrade on equal footing. If talks take place, will be first since NATO’s 1999 bombing. Insecurity over Kosovo’s future status contributed to failure of UN weapons amnesty program.

At least two gunmen killed in clash with Macedonian security forces near Kosovo border (Brest). Shadowy Albanian National Army claimed responsibility. Police vowed to hunt down ethnic Albanian militants. The incident appears to have destabilised – temporarily – Macedonia’s ruling coalition. EU agreed to deploy 200-strong police force in Macedonia by 15 December.

Montenegrin politics continue to be overshadowed by allegations of smuggling and human trafficking.

Attack on army vehicle in southern Serbia on 24 September, one officer wounded. Government announced presidential elections to be held on 16 November – despite failure to adopt new constitution to replace Milosevic era constitution or election law. Two elections in late 2002 failed to pick president due to low voter turnout. Presidents of Croatia and Serbia & Montenegro, during first visit by Croatian president to Serbia since war, apologised for “all the evils” committed by their countries during 1991-1995 war. One war crimes suspect arrest on 25 September.

Trade unions have launched indefinite general strike, protesting government plans to export natural gas to U.S. Peasants in mountain region set up roadblocks.

Bomb outside nightclub in southern city of Florencia on 28 September killed ten and injured 50 – FARC rebels blamed. Eight foreign tourists kidnapped, one British tourist later escaped – leftist rebel group ELN claimed responsibility. FARC stepped up attacks in north, bombing freight train and blowing up gas pipeline. Heavy fighting between right-wing paramilitaries caused hundreds to flee homes in north. Human Rights Watch reported more than 11,000 child soldiers may be fighting for rebels and paramilitaries. President Uribe strongly criticised NGOs and human rights groups after they challenged government’s human rights record.