In surprise move by India, fresh peace initiative launched 22 October, proposing 12 concrete steps toward Indo- Pak normalisation, including restoration of further transport links (including aviation and reopening of road between Indian and Pakistani-controlled Kashmir) and renewal of sporting ties; but crucially, no discussion on Kashmir itself. Proposal broadly accepted by Pakistan, but disappointment expressed at “piecemeal” approach. Pakistani Foreign Minister Riaz Khokhar proposed four further confidence building measures; technical talks planned for November. India’s hard-line Deputy PM, L.K. Advani, offered talks with moderate faction of All Party Hurriyat Conference, (umbrella organisation for Kashmiri separatist groups) yet 35 members of both Hurriyat factions taken into ‘preventive detention’ for holding procession in Srinagar 27 October. Attempt 17 October by Muslim separatist group, Al- Mansoorian, to assassinate Chief Minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed provoked nine-hour battle between police and militants. Fighting continues across Line of Control. Government sources estimate 40,000 casualties since 1989; separatists claim more than 80,000.

Crisis deepening since talks between government and Maoist rebels collapsed 27 August, with more than 1,000 killed since breakdown of ceasefire. No progress made in instituting all-party government or restoring normal democratic process, although some vague discussion of local elections being held within year – unlikely prospect in current security environment. Fighting slowed during nine-day Hindu festival Dashain, (2-11 October), but again intensified; conflict remains bogged down in one of its most lethal periods.

Karachi on high alert after September violence and warnings of terrorist attacks. Prominent Sunni leader Maulana Azam Tariq killed by unknown gunmen in Islamabad 6 October. In response angry mobs rioted, torching cinema and destroying property. Violence flared again in Quetta 10-11 October: rocket and grenade attacks killed two. Government carried out three tests between 3-14 Oct of new missile capable of carrying nuclear warhead. Hunt for militants in northwest continues with little success, leading observers to question seriousness. Government began fencing parts of Afghan border 22 October.

LTTE (Tamil Tigers) meeting took place in Ireland between 10-15 October to consider government proposal of power-sharing body for north and east – LTTE presented counter-proposal to government 31 October. Document outlines ethnically representative interim assembly for five-year period followed by referendum on new constitution. Preliminary meeting planned for November and formal negotiations to recommence early 2004.

Key Bali bomber, Ali Gufron, alias Mukhlas, convicted and sentenced to death 2 October. Abu Rusdan, alias Thoriqudin, man believed to have replaced Abu Bakar Ba’asyir as JI leader, went on trial 29 October. JI regrouping after arrests and reportedly planning new attacks. Violence linked to protests over creation of new district in Mamasa, South Sulawesi 29 September-3 October killed three. After months of relative calm in area of Central Sulawesi near Poso, gunmen attacked Christian villages 10 October, torching church and 30 homes and killing three. Further attacks later in October killed at least ten more. By end of month, police had killed six of the gunmen including one of suspected masterminds, and arrested 13. Early indications suggest possible links to JI and local jihadist groups. Peace holding in Maluku where Christian-Muslim fighting has claimed at least 5,000 lives since 1999. Members of Papuan provincial parliament threatened to boycott 2004 general elections if plans to divide province go ahead. Military emergency declared in Aceh in mid-May formally ends 19 November but will almost certainly be extended; military operations against separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) continue, with access to province almost totally closed to foreigners, including humanitarian workers. GAM negotiators from collapsed peace talks convicted on terrorism and rebellion charges and sentenced to terms ranging from 11-15 years. Two killed in clashes between PDIP (governing party) and Golkar (opposition) supporters in Bali 26 October.

Buddhist-Muslim clashes in Kyaukse including arson attack on mosque 19 October killing nine. ASEAN welcomed “positive development” of government’s roadmap. U.S. officials said “no progress at all” and could be none until democratic opposition allowed full role in politics. UK, Japan and UN continue to demand Suu Kyi release and substantive talks with opposition. UN human rights envoy Paulo Pinheiro to commence six-day investigative trip 3 November.

Indonesian Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) member Taufik Rifki arrested 2 October; Philippine police call him key leader. Raid by military in Mindanao 19 October turned up bomb-making materials and instructions, and documents referring to JI, fuelling suspicion of cooperation between Indonesian and local militants (MILF denies links). After escaping jail in July, Indonesian JI leader Fathur Rohman al-Ghozi killed in alleged shoot-out with government troops 13 October. Al-Ghozi given martyr’s burial when body returned to Indonesia. Despite July ceasefire, government forces clashed with MILF rebels in Zamboanga 14 October, killing five. Talks underway in Norway between government and communist rebels, New People’s Army.

Government continues to bully opposition parties and independent-minded journalists. Recently banned Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan (DCK) not allowed to re- register. Former leader of Republican People’s Party of Kazakhstan (RNPK), another opposition party, charged with tax evasion and fined $225,000. Andrei Doronin, journalist for independent daily Ekspress-K, allegedly beaten and told to give up journalism after publishing stories on losses to national budget due to shadow economy.

After international pressure, Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society, vocal opposition group, had registration approved on fourth attempt, and government retracted demand that Kyrgyz Committee for Human Rights (KCHR) re-register, but environment for civil society groups remains difficult. Border with Uzbekistan continuing source of tension.

Russian troops on Tajik-Afghan border seized over ton of illegal drugs 8 October. Year’s large poppy harvest in Afghanistan has led to increased trafficking and more seizures. Rumblings over border responsibility, with top Tajik official comments that Tajik forces ready and capable of taking over from Russian troops: latter have guarded border since 1993.