U.S. stepping up pressure on Tbilisi ahead of 2 November parliamentary elections, widely expected to be less than fair. Days after announcement U.S. cutting aid to Georgia, American delegation including Senator John McCain, former Chairman of Joint Chiefs John Shalikashvili, and former Deputy Sec. State Strobe Talbott met with government and opposition officials, saying Georgia’s international standing would receive “serious blow” if major election violations. President has rejected calls to postpone election until inaccuracies in voter lists cleared up. Rally 23 October by opposition National Movement in Batumi, capital of Ajara autonomous region, broken up by Ajaran security forces with 70 arrested. Elsewhere, two alleged Georgian gunmen shot dead in breakaway republic of Abkhazia after ambushing car full of Abkhaz officials, killing three. Settlement still nowhere in sight. Talks with unrecognised republic of South Ossetia also stalled.

European Council called on Russia 17 October to remove its military presence from Transdniestria by year’s end as promised, but troops look set to stay well into 2004. Reports that mediators’ proposal on breakaway region will be presented to parties in coming days.

High Rep. Paddy Ashdown reported Bosnia’s major ethnic groups beginning to cooperate: draft laws on intelligence and indirect tax reform formerly held up by political bickering now await parliamentary endorsement; integration of Serb and Bosniak armies under single national command finally underway. NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson announced 9 October NATO would likely leave Bosnia within 12-18 months. One notable shortcoming is Bosnia’s cooperation with ICTY. U.S. State Department’s Pierre Richard Prosper said 7 October that NATO Partnership for Peace membership and European integration hinged on Karadzic arrest.

Tense and brief first official meeting between Belgrade and representatives of Kosovo’s provisional government took place in Vienna 14 October. Each side fielded downsized delegation after Kosovo PM Rexhepi declined to attend, and Belgrade threatened boycott following withdrawal of non- Albanians from Kosovo delegation. Delegations provisionally agreed to establish joint working groups on energy, transport, refugee return, and missing persons to meet from November, but PM Rexhepi yet to commit his government to join. Brief detention in Slovenia 22 October of Kosovo Protection Corps head General Ceku dismayed Kosovo Albanians – Interpol’s acceptance of dubious arrest warrant from Miliosevic-era Serbian judge highlighted Kosovo’s indeterminate status and its leaders’ vulnerability. UN police announced arrest 28 October of five Kosovo Albanians for war crimes.

Ethnic tensions persist. Voluntary disarmament program to commence 1 November. All political parties except Party for Democratic Prosperity have expressed support for program, but Democratic Party of Albanians mayors will not take part in training for scheme. EU military monitoring mission “Concordia” scheduled to wind up 15 Dec. 2003 by which time 200-strong EU police mission “Proxima” will be largely deployed.

Political crisis deepening. Government announced presidential elections to be held 16 November – despite failure to change Milosevic-era constitution or election law. Two elections late 2002 failed to pick president due to low voter turnout. Current government lost parliamentary majority; facing no confidence vote early November. Extremist opposition MP Dragan Markovic called for coup d’état 23 October. Anti- government trade union protests broken up by police 29 October. ICTY prosecutor Carla del Ponte revealed 13 October Serbian PM Zivkovic’s threat to end cooperation if "certain indictments" issued. Indictment unsealed 20 October accusing four senior police and army officials – Serbia refusing to extradite; wants to try them in domestic court. Massive police demonstration 24 October protesting indictment of police general Sreten Lukic. U.S. Congress considering halting aid to Serbia if Ratko Mladic (indicted in 1995) not handed to ICTY.

President Sanchez de Lozada resigned 17 October following huge and increasingly violent protests. Replaced by Vice-President Carlos Mesa. 74 killed in clashes between army and strikers since beginning of protests in September, sparked by plans to export natural gas to U.S. Opposition to gas plan broadened into general hostility to president’s free market and coca eradication policies. Thousands march on capital as new president asks for patience.

Car bomb killed six and injured 12 on 8 October in central Bogota: FARC blamed. Two mayors slain after secret meeting with FARC, totalling nine mayors assassinated this year. Ceasefire between government and right-wing paramilitary group put in doubt by 13 October deadly clashes. Regional FARC number two leader killed by Colombian army 19 October. In run up to 25 October national referendum and 26 October local elections, at least 30 candidates killed by illegal groups; others intimidated into dropping out. 25 politicians detained as government claims rebel ties. Package of measures failed in referendum due to low voter turnout, and leftist candidate won election as mayor of Bogota, in setback to President Uribe.

Indigenous party planning civil protest campaign. President Lucio Gutierrez ended alliance with indigenous party in August. State of emergency declared in response to strike and blockades by banana growers, but lifted when strike called off.

Situation tense with clampdown on media. After officials seized broadcasting equipment from opposition TV channel, and grenade attack against state media agency, President Chavez announced TV stations could be shut down due to “destabilization and violence”. Chavez facing mounting opposition but resisting calls for referendum. After rejecting opposition petition for referendum last month National Electoral Council has allowed new petition to be sought from 28 Nov. to 1 Dec. Date criticised as too late but accepted by opposition. Referendum therefore possible by end March 2004. Pro- Chavez lawmakers claim U.S. backed anti-Chavez plot.