CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) adopted platform of wide-ranging reforms at party conference; to what extent proposals will be implemented remains to be seen. 900 Islamists released from prison, but estimates put number of political prisoners at close to 10,000.

Mauritania

Five opposition candidates given permission by Constitutional Court to challenge President Taya in 7 November elections. One candidate is former military leader Mohamed Khouna Ould Haidalla, who was overthrown by Taya in coup 19 years ago.

Western Sahara

At recent congress of Polisario Front, Secretary General Mohamed Abdelaziz reaffirmed support for UN-brokered Baker Plan. In Morocco visit, President Chirac pledged support for country’s continued rejection of plan, increasing fears France likely to shield King from Security Council pressure to reach settlement. Kofi Annan issued statement 21 October urging Morocco to accept Plan; reports suggest King looking for solution outside UN framework through talks with Algeria. UN mission (MINURSO) extended to January 2004.

Morocco

King Mohammed VI announced plans to grant new rights to women regarding marriage and divorce. On three-day visit to Morocco, President Chirac praised King's steps towards democratic reform. Man arrested in Spain in connection with Casablanca bombings. U.S. announced plans for substantial increase in financial aid to Morocco for 2004.

Asia

China (internal)

Dalai Lama said influx of ethnic Chinese into Tibet – spurred by Beijing – leading to “cultural genocide”. Chinese Government following similar policy in northwestern province of Xinjiang: Muslims now less than half population.

India

Hindu rallies 17 October in Ayodhya demanding construction of temple on site of demolished Babri mosque, flouting official ban. Fear thousands of protestors will reignite Hindu-Muslim violence that killed 3,000 in 1992 and hundreds since. Tensions simmer in north-east where some 30 banned insurgent groups (separatist and communist) operate. Assassination attempt against Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh state, Chandrababu Naidu 1 October. Police blame Maoist rebels, People’s War Group (PWG), who issued “death warrant”. Bihar state government to hold talks with Naxalite groups including PWG. National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) rebels demanding Naga majority areas of Manipur be integrated into Nagaland state. 13 NSCN members released from jail provoking protests from United Committee of Manipur; “precautionary” curfew imposed (including police shoot-on- sight orders) to prevent violent response. More talks between NSCN and central government planned for November. BrahMos surface-to-surface missile test-fired 29 October.

Papua New Guinea

Australia to deploy administrators, public sector specialists and 200-300 police to address growing lawlessness, as condition of U.S.$220 million Australian aid program. PNG government unhappy at conditionality of Australian aid but formal agreement expected at December bilateral meeting. PNG government calling for additional assistance with police reform. Draft constitution proposed by Bougainville leaders to resolve final status of semi-autonomous province dubbed “flawed” by PNG Attorney General. Secessionist conflict claimed 20,000 lives between 1988-97. Government to seek extension of Bougainville UN observer mission for additional six months.

Europe & Central Asia

Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict

OSCE Minsk Group reportedly planning attempt at kickstarting peace talks in wake of Azerbaijani presidential election 15 October, but group’s efforts have brought little progress to date.

Northern Ireland (UK)

After hopes of major breakthrough, peace process frozen again over issue of IRA arms decommissioning. 26 November Northern Ireland Assembly election to go ahead nonetheless. IRA decommissioned significant cache of arms and explosives 22 October, verified by head of ceasefire monitoring commission, retired Canadian Gen. John de Chastelain, but details not made public. Ulster Unionists, disappointed at lack of transparency, have put process “on hold”. British PM Blair unable to broker compromise. Concerted engagement by London and Dublin but faith eroding.

Africa

Eswatini

House of Assembly elections held 19 October. Elections marked by low voter turnout and boycott by pro- democracy groups. House only has advisory role to King Mswati III. Political parties are banned in Swaziland, and political gatherings prohibited.

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