In July U.S. warned Guinea against providing supplies to LURD rebels in Liberia. Liberia in past has led incursions in Guinea with support of Guinean dissidents based in Liberia - Guinea now returning favour in Liberia. Guinea’s presidential elections scheduled for December 2003. Lansana Conté, Guinea’s 69 year old president, has declared candidacy, but believed to be critically ill. EU expressed concern over democracy in Guinea.

President Charles Taylor resigned on 11 August and took up offer of asylum in Nigeria. Almost 2,000 Nigerian peacekeepers deployed in Monrovia, with 2,300 U.S. marines positioned on ships offshore. Government signed peace agreement with LURD and MODEL rebels in Accra on 18 August, with interim government to take power on 14 October until elections in 2005. Businessman Gyude Bryant chosen to head interim government. Fighting continues in countryside. Humanitarian corridors still do not exist. Relief aid limited to Monrovia and Buchanan corridor.

Ethnic conflict between Ijaw and Itsekiri groups and within Ijaw groups in Niger delta claimed almost 100 lives and left more than 1,000 injured. Ceasefire declared on 20 August after 5 days fighting, though there has been sporadic fighting since. Nigeria’s President Obasanjo provided asylum to Liberia’s ousted President Taylor.

International confidence growing that Sierra Leone may have finally emerged from decade-long civil war, though concerns UN may be moving to withdraw mission (UNAMSIL) too rapidly. Special Court has called for international community to ensure Charles Taylor arrested and handed to Court.

After intense activity in August, underlying situation neither better nor worse: next period has both high risk and high peace opportunity. Tensions escalating since October 2002 when North Korea admitted to secret nuclear arms program. Six-way multilateral talks between U.S., North Korea, South Korea, Japan, China, Russia in Beijing on 27-28 August. North Korea announced intention to become nuclear power; plan to test atomic bomb in near future. Having agreed on 28 August on new round within two months, Pyongyang announced on 30 August it saw no value in further talks. U.S. and others declined to take at face value. Japan announced plans for new missile defence system.

Taiwanese authorities bolstered security measures after uncovering Chinese spy ring. China strongly condemned Taiwan’s eleventh bid for UN representation on 8 August. President Chen announced on 13 August commercial aviation and shipping links may be restored by end of 2004.

Armed attacks by extremist groups against U.S. forces, government troops and aid workers continued in southeast border regions. More than 60 people killed on 13 August (including two Red Crescent workers, 15 Afghan civilians and six government soldiers), bloodiest day in over a year. Battles between local commanders in the north continue to cause displacement and civilian casualties. NATO took command of International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) on 11 August. Continuing need to expand international security umbrella outside Kabul. Subject to parliamentary approval, 250 German troops will be deployed to northern city of Kunduz. UN approval sought to send troops under ISAF umbrella; otherwise troops will operate under “Enduring Freedom” U.S. command. U.S. and Afghan soldiers began week-long campaign of bombing and intense ground battles on 25 August, hitting Taliban camps and killing dozens; 2 U.S. soldiers killed.

Despite continued violence, including bomb explosion in Srinagar shortly before Indian PM Vajpayee arrived on 27 August, Indo-Pakistani relations have improved in recent months. Initial responses to Mumbai bombings on both sides confirmed improvement. Echoing Vajpayee’s April offer, Pakistani President Musharraf called on 11 August for talks about ceasefire along Line of Control. However, both sides continue to attach unrealistic preconditions to talks. Ghazi Baba, Commander in Chief of Jaish-e-Mohammed and alleged architect of December 2001 attack on Indian parliament, killed in gun battle in Srinagar on 30 August.

Talks that resumed in mid-August between Government and Maoist rebels ended in stalemate. Rebels insist on new constitution redefining role of King; government only prepared to amend current constitution. Maoist leader Prachanda called off ceasefire on 27 August. Assassination attempts against several serving and former politicians blamed on Maoists. Battles on 30-31 August killed 9 rebels, 2 soldiers and 2 police; Maoists back on Government terrorist list; curfews imposed in much of country.

On August 21, opposition members walked out of parliament’s first sitting since November 2002 in protest over constitutional changes enabling President to sack PM and dissolve parliament. Sectarian violence continues in Quetta: 2 Shia men killed in separate attacks on 16 August. Angry mobs torched cars and destroyed property after one victim’s funeral. Skirmishes continued between Pakistani and Afghan troops across disputed border. Afghan leaders accused Islamabad of doing too little to prevent al-Qaida and Taliban forces regrouping in Pakistan. Pakistan proposed greater intelligence sharing. Three-way commission (Afghanistan, Pakistan and U.S.) investigating border disputes agreed on 14 August to establish hotline between senior military commands.