Authorities contended with aftermath of terrorist attack in Russia, and UK’s FM visited Tajikistan during regional tour. 

Tajikistan continued to deal with aftermath of Moscow terrorist attack. By end of April, Russian authorities had detained twelve people in connection with March terrorist attack in capital Moscow, eleven of whom hail from Tajikistan. Senior Russian official Nikolai Patrushev 3 April claimed Ukraine’s embassy in capital Dushanbe was recruiting mercenaries to fight against Russia; foreign ministry 6 April dismissed allegation, saying it “has no basis”. FM Muhriddin 12 April criticised torture of four detained Tajik suspects and decried rising anti-Tajik sentiment in Russia. Meanwhile, Russia and Tajikistan 15-18 April held joint military exercises in southern Khatlon region, which borders Afghanistan, after sides late March pledged to intensify joint counterterrorism efforts. 

In important international developments. Uzbek President Mirziyaev 18-19 April visited Tajikistan, meeting with Rahmon and other high-level officials and signing slew of cooperation agreements. UK FM David Cameron 22 April embarked on five-day tour of region, beginning in Tajikistan; trip sought to deepen diplomatic and economic ties in region, and to address concerns about circumvention of sanctions on Russia. Defence minister 26 April attended regional forum Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Kazakhstan amid efforts to boost military cooperation.

Authorities stepped up measures against “religious extremism”, while Tashkent welcomed top officials from China and UK.

Authorities cracked down on “religious extremism”. Following terrorist attack in Russian capital Moscow, claimed by Islamic State, authorities intensified efforts to tackle “religious extremism”. Notably, police 7 April conducted raids on homes of dozens of people allegedly linked to “radical extremist groups” and reportedly prevented imams from leaving country.

In important international developments. President Mirziyoyev 2 April met with China’s State Councillor and Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong in capital Tashkent, culminating in signing of security cooperation agreement. UK FM David Cameron 22 April embarked on five-day tour of region, 23 April visiting Uzbekistan; trip sought to deepen diplomatic and economic ties, and to address concerns about circumvention of sanctions on Russia. Defence minister 26 April attended regional forum Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Kazakhstan amid efforts to boost military cooperation.

UN personal envoy maintained her search for common ground between parties, aiming for return to formal talks.

Ahead of expiration of UN Sec-Gen’s Personal Envoy to Cyprus Maria Holguin Cuellar’s mandate in early June, Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar 5 April met UN Sec-Gen António Guterres in New York City, after which Tatar reiterated his scepticism toward envoy by saying he did not believe Cuellar could find common ground between sides; Tatar urged all parties to recognise existence of “two peoples, two democratic states, two authorities” and also warned against flare-up of tensions on island, saying “little misunderstanding” such as accidental shooting of Turkish soldier could “turn the situation into a new Gaza”. Republic of Cyprus next day described Tatar’s remarks as incompatible with future of their “mutual” homeland. Republic of Cyprus FM Constantin Kombos 11 April voiced readiness to resume formal talks but said Turkish Cypriots and Türkiye had imposed new conditions. Holguin 29 April visited Belgian capital Brussels for meetings with high level EU officials, including European Council President Charles Michel. Meanwhile, EU Council’s declaration 18 April hinged enhancement of ties with Türkiye in part on progress on Cyprus issues; Ankara same day accused EU of “reductionism” in tying broader cooperation to Cyprus. 

Military targeted Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Syria and Iraq, opposition won local elections for first time in two decades, and Turkish-Greek diplomacy continued despite evidence of tensions.

Ahead of potential summer offensive, limited operations against PKK continued. In northern Syria, Turkish defence ministry 14 April announced killing of three militants. In northern Iraq, clashes with PKK 9 April killed Turkish soldier; military 15 April launched airstrikes in mountains Asos and Hakurk areas of north. President Erdoğan late March reiterated plans for summer offensive against PKK in Iraq, stating determination to prevent “terror corridor” and permanently eradicate group. Erdoğan 22 April made first visit to Iraq in over decade, signing over 25 cooperation agreements with Baghdad (see Iraq). 

Authorities targeted alleged Islamic State (ISIS) members. Security forces during April detained at least 410 individuals with alleged links to Islamic State (ISIS). Following deadly ISIS terror attack in Russian capital Moscow in March, perpetrated by Tajikistan nationals, govt 5 April revoked visa-free travel for Tajikistani nationals. 

Opposition edged out ruling party in local elections. In first election defeat for ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) since rising to power in 2002, opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) won 31 March local elections with 37.7% of vote to AKP’s 35.5% on 78% voter turnout; CHP secured victories in seven out of eight largest and most economically significant cities, including Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. 

Diplomacy with Greece inched ahead. Türkiye and Greece continued preparations for Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s visit to capital Ankara scheduled for 13 May. In step to boost confidence, Greece 1 April launched seven-day visa-free travel scheme for Turkish tourists visiting ten eastern Aegean islands. Underscoring lingering maritime tensions, Ankara 3 April condemned Greece’s declaration of two marine park zones in Ionian and Aegean Seas, claiming Athens sought to disguise its territorial claims with environmental concerns; Greece responded by accusing govt of politicising environmental issues. Defence Ministry 13 April released footage of Greek Coast Guard vessel releasing two migrants into waters of Aegean near Samos/Sisam island. Turkish and Greek delegations 22 April met to discuss progress on confidence-building measures.

Yerevan agreed to return four villages to Baku under delimitation deal, triggering protests; U.S. and EU pledged to bolster economic support to Armenia.   

Tensions flared along Armenia-Azerbaijan border early month. Azerbaijan and Armenia traded accusations over series of border incidents in early April. Azerbaijan 2 April said Armenian troops fired at troop positions in its Nakhichevan exclave, which Armenia denied. Azerbaijan 5 April claimed Armenia was strengthening fortifications and concentrating its forces; Armenia 6 April denied allegation, EU Monitoring Mission in Armenia same day reported no unusual military movements. Shooting 10 April wounded one Azerbaijani soldier; Armenia 12 April acknowledged its soldiers violated rules that caused incident and expressed “regret”. 

Yerevan and Baku struck border delimitation deal, triggering protests in Armenia. Armenia and Azerbaijan 19 April announced agreement to restore section of Soviet-era border between Tavush region and Azerbaijan’s Qazakh district, meaning Armenia will return four villages to Azerbaijan that came under its control in 1990s. EU, U.S. and UN all welcomed agreement. Residents in Tavush region 19 April began protesting decision amid fears it will deprive them of access to farmlands; protests 24 April spread across Armenia, including capital Yerevan. Meanwhile, Armenia 26 April confirmed reception of “9th edition” of draft peace treaty from Azerbaijan.

EU-U.S.-Armenia meeting resulted in economic pledges for Armenia. Trilateral meeting between Armenia, U.S. and EU 5 April took place in Belgian capital Brussels, culminating in promises of economic support for Armenia’s reform initiatives. EU promised €270mn and U.S. committed $65mn in economic assistance, while both vowed to continue aiding Armenia’s integration of refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh. Ahead of meeting, U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken and European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen 3, 4 April respectively sought to reassure Azerbaijani President Aliyev that talks would focus on economic development; Aliyev voiced concerns about inclusivity and military assistance to Armenia. Russia 5 April described meeting as Western attempt to embroil “South Caucasus into geopolitical confrontations”.

Yerevan agreed to return four villages to Baku under delimitation deal, President Aliyev raised concerns about EU-U.S.-Armenia meeting, and France recalled its ambassador.

Tensions flared along Azerbaijan-Armenia border early month. Azerbaijan and Armenia traded accusations over series of border incidents in early April. Azerbaijan 2 April said Armenian troops fired at troop positions in its Nakhichevan exclave, which Armenia denied. Azerbaijan 5 April claimed Armenia was strengthening fortifications and concentrating its forces; Armenia 6 April denied allegation, EU Monitoring Mission in Armenia same day reported no unusual military movements. Shooting 10 April wounded one Azerbaijani soldier; Armenia 12 April acknowledged its soldiers violated rules that caused incident and expressed “regret”. 

Yerevan and Baku struck border delimitation deal, triggering protests in Armenia. Armenia and Azerbaijan 19 April announced agreement to restore section of Soviet-era border between Armenia’s Tavush region and Qazakh district, meaning Armenia will return four villages to Azerbaijan that came under its control in 1990s. EU, U.S. and UN all welcomed agreement. Residents in Tavush region 19 April began protesting decision amid fears it will deprive them of access to farmlands (see Armenia). Meanwhile, Armenia 26 April confirmed reception of “9th edition” of draft peace treaty from Azerbaijan.

Baku raised concerns about EU-U.S.-Armenia trilateral meeting. Meeting between Armenia, U.S. and EU 5 April took place in Belgian capital Brussels, culminating in promises of economic support for Armenia’s reform initiatives (see Armenia). Ahead of meeting, U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken and European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen 3, 4 April respectively sought to reassure President Aliyev that talks would focus on economic development; Aliyev voiced concerns about inclusivity and military assistance to Armenia. Russia 5 April described meeting as Western attempt to embroil “South Caucasus into geopolitical confrontations”.

In other important developments. Authorities 22 April placed opposition politician Gubad Ibadoglu, detained in July 2023, under house arrest. Azerbaijan and Russia 17 April announced early withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from former Nagorno-Karabakh (see Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict). France 16 April recalled its ambassador to Azerbaijan for consultations amid rising bilateral tensions.

Ruling party Georgian Dream reintroduced “Foreign Agents” law, triggering protests and harsh police response; EU warned of implications for accession process.

Ruling party reintroduced “Foreign Agents” law, prompting major backlash. Georgian Dream 3 April revived draft “foreign agents” law, having withdrawn bill in March 2023 after massive street protests and international opposition; law would require media and NGOs to register as organisations serving “interests of a foreign power” if they receive over 20% of their funding from abroad, which critics have warned mimics repressive Russian legislation. Parliament committee hearing on legislation 15 April led to brawl among MPs, while thousands took to streets in protest, prompting tough police response; rights group Amnesty International 17 April criticised “excessive force”. Thousands 28 April staged “March for Europe”. Ruling party next day passed law in second reading, organised pro-govt counter-rally; in speech to protesters, Georgian Dream founder and billionaire Bidzina Ivanshvili expressed support for draft law and accused Western “global party of war” of meddling in Georgia through opposition and NGOs. Protests 30 April led to harsh crackdown as police used tear gas, while reportedly beating and arresting scores. Meanwhile, EU and U.S. 17, 18 April respectively urged ruling party to retract law, with EU warning it could “compromise Georgia’s EU path”; European Parliament 25 April threatened revision of visa-free scheme and sanctions against Ivanshvili.

Political tensions continued to rise amid forthcoming elections. Georgian Dream 4 April voted to abolish gender quota for political parties in Oct parliamentary elections; opposition party Girchi proposed initiative in exchange for backing ruling party’s nominee for chairperson of Central Election Committee. President Zourabichvili 18 April vetoed amendments on gender quotas. Meanwhile, authorities 8 April revoked registration of pro-Kremlin Conservative Movement amid corruption allegations; party same day said move was politically motivated.

Latest round of Geneva International Discussions took place. 60th round of Geneva International Discussions – multilateral forum to address security and humanitarian consequences of 2008 Russo-Georgian War – 4-5 April took place without new announcements. Participants scheduled next round for June.

Opposition deputies formed anti-European bloc as ruling party received greenlight for referendum on European integration.

Court approved vote on EU membership as opposition politicians met in Russia. Constitutional Court 16 April approved ruling party’s request to hold referendum on EU membership in October, same month as presidential election. Days later, pro-Russian opposition politicians 21 April met in Russian capital Moscow for congress organised by businessman and fugitive Ilan Shor; leaders from autonomous Gagauz region also attended. Meeting culminated in decision to form anti-European political bloc dubbed Victoire, as Russia sought to consolidate its supporters in Moldova before elections and referendum.

Drone reportedly struck military unit in breakaway Transnistria. De facto authorities in breakaway Transnistria 5 April claimed that drone struck military facility in Rabnita region near Ukrainian border, but did not assign blame for attack; Moldova’s Bureau for Reintegration Policies same day said incident aligns with “a pattern of provocations” in Transnistria designed to “incite panic and tension”. 

Lawmakers in Republika Srpska adopted Election Law, escalating confrontation with High Representative and threatening constitutional order; draft UN resolution commemorating Srebrenica fuelled tensions. 

Lawmakers in Republika Srpska (RS) voted to adopt entity-level Election Law. National Assembly of self-governing entity RS 19 April adopted Election Law transferring state-level competencies for elections and referendums to entity; move came amid escalating tensions between Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik and High Representative Christian Schmidt over latter’s 26 March decision to impose changes to state-level Election Law using his executive powers. Ahead of RS vote, EU 18 April warned of “serious consequences” if any action is taken to undermine Bosnia and Herzegovina’s (BiH) territorial integrity, while U.S. Embassy in capital Sarajevo 12 April vowed to respond as Dodik “pursues his secessionist agenda and pushes BiH toward conflict”. Bosniak delegates in RS People’s Council 29 April claimed law violates their vital interests and appealed to RS constitutional court.

Upcoming UN vote on commemorating Srebrenica ignited tensions. Draft UN resolution to declare 11 July as “International Day of Reflection and Remembrance of the 1995 Srebrenica Genocide” fuelled tensions. Dodik 18 April organised rally in RS city Banja Luka — with 50,000 people and top Serbian officials in attendance — against draft, which UN General Assembly will vote on in May. During rally, Dodik acknowledged “crime” at Srebrenica but denied it was genocide; he also vowed RS would become one country with Serbia “as soon as the first opportunity arises”. 

Kosovo Serbs boycotted vote on removal of ethnic Albanian mayors in north, Serbia conducted military drills close to border, and vote in Council of Europe brought Kosovo step closer to membership. 

Kosovo Serbs boycotted referendum on ouster of ethnic Albanian mayors in north. Kosovo Serbs 21 April boycotted referendum on removing ethnic Albanian mayors from office in Serb-majority northern municipalities after political party Serbian List 7 April announced it would not participate; party previously boycotted April 2023 poll that resulted in election of four Albanian mayors and subsequent unrest. EU and U.S. 11 April expressed regret over decision to call for abstention. Incumbent mayors set to remain in place, hampering efforts to de-escalate tensions. 

Serbia conducted military drills near border with Kosovo. Over 2,000 Serb soldiers 8-21 April participated in military exercises near border with Montenegro and Kosovo. PM Kurti 19 April accused Serbia of threatening “the security and safety of the region and Europe”. 

Kosovo inched closer to Council of Europe (CoE) membership. Parliamentary Assembly of human rights body CoE 16 April voted in favour of Kosovo’s membership; Serbia’s FM Ivica Dačić same day vowed Belgrade would “fight to prevent” Kosovo from joining. CoE’s executive body Committee of Ministers 16-17 May will vote on final decision.